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AYC/SSA Varsity Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bruins Bruins Bruins 29 14 43
2 Admirals Admirals Admirals 28 30 58
3 Zags Zags Zags 45 30 75
4 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 38 38 76
5 Cavaliers Cavaliers Cavaliers 29 56 85
6 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 47 46 93
7 Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Bengals 45 54 99
8 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Varsity 64 54 118
9 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 69 68 137
10 Eagles Eagles Eagles 98 80 178
11 Chargers Chargers Chargers 65 118 183
12 St. Albans St. Albans St. Albans 94 90 184
13 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Varsity 100 101 201
14 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Varsity 114 107 221
15 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 117 104 221
16 Gunston Gunston Herons 123 115 238
17 River Rats River Rats River Rats 120 120 240
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Admirals Admirals Admirals 2 1 3 6 3 6 4 3 28
Bruins Bruins Bruins 4 7 2 7 2 2 1 4 29
Cavaliers Cavaliers Cavaliers 6 4 1 1 5 4 7 1 29
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 1 2 4 5 10 5 5 6 38 Porter Kavle '18 [1-8]
Ava Walker '20 [1-4]
George Kaye '18 [5-6]
Nicholas Salvesen '18 [7-8]
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Bengals 7 6 5 2 6 7 2 10 45 Casey Cabot '17 [1-8]
Talia Frank '17 [1-6]
Gabriel Cropsey '17 [7-8]
Zags Zags Zags 8 5 OCS 4 1 1 3 5 45
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 5 9 6 8 8 3 6 2 47 Michael Bisson '18 [1-8]
Annabelle Hutchinson '17 [1-6]
Kate Rice '16 [7-8]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Varsity 9 10 8 3 9 8 9 8 64 Luke Dufour '17
Coleman Walker '17
Chargers Chargers Chargers 3 3 15 9 4 12 10 9 65
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 13 8 7 10 7 9 8 7 69 Kate Riley '18
Andrew Vernon '15
St. Albans St. Albans St. Albans 10 11 9 13 12 11 14 14 94
Eagles Eagles Eagles 14 14 12 12 11 10 12 13 98
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Varsity 12 16 11 11 14 14 11 11 100 Astri Carlsen '17
Hannah Carlsen '19
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Varsity 11 17 10 16 15 15 15 15 114 Ryan Rutkowski '16
Emily Clark '16
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 15 12 13 17 13 13 17 17 117 Ashley Richardson '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Feist '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Sixiao "Sisi" Chen '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Allesandra Bergmark '17 [3-4]
Shujing "Jennie" Zhang '17 [7-8]
River Rats River Rats River Rats 16 13 16 15 16 16 16 12 120
Gunston Gunston Herons 17 15 14 14 17 17 13 16 123 Luke Miller '16
Jamie Caron '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Bruins Bruins Bruins 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 14
Zags Zags Zags 1 3 4 4 4 5 7 2 30
Admirals Admirals Admirals 6 2 3 6 9 2 1 1 30
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 3 6 2 3 5 7 6 6 38 Remington King '17
Kimberly Leonard '18
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 5 DSQ 2 2 4 4 4 46 Emily Harrison '17 [1-8]
Kate Rice '16 [1-5]
Ian Mathiesen '15 [6-8]
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Bengals 5 4 5 5 8 8 11 8 54 Tye Rubin '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Marley Hillman '17 [3-4]
River Carson '17 [1-2]
Genevieve Dickinson '17 [3-8]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Varsity 14 10 7 9 3 1 3 7 54 Noah Kullman '17
Sarah Westheim '16
Cavaliers Cavaliers Cavaliers 10 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 56
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 12 9 6 7 7 10 8 9 68 Stanley Galloway '18
Jack Carty '17
Eagles Eagles Eagles 9 7 9 11 10 12 10 12 80
St. Albans St. Albans St. Albans 11 11 12 12 12 9 12 11 90
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Varsity 4 13 14 14 11 14 15 16 101 Curtis Aaron '17
Greg Sowa '16
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 15 16 11 15 13 15 9 10 104 Natalie Jones '16 [1-8]
Sara Ramotnik '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Thomas '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Varsity 8 15 15 13 14 11 17 14 107 Rylee Young '17
Julianna Bennett '17
Gunston Gunston Herons 17 12 10 10 17 16 16 17 115 Birdie Clarke '16 [1-4]
Chad Angelini '17 [5-8]
Isabelle Schmittinger '19 [1-4]
Chargers Chargers Chargers 13 14 13 17 15 17 14 15 118
River Rats River Rats River Rats 16 17 16 16 16 13 13 13 120
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers11335577
CavaliersCavaliers Cavaliers22446688
BruinsBruins Bruins33557799
Edmund Burke SchoolEdmund Burke School Bengals4466881010
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Varsity5577991111
EaglesEagles Eagles668810101212
ZagsZags Zags779911111313
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Varsity88101012121414
ChargersChargers Chargers99111113131515
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Varsity1010121214141616
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals1111131315151717
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons12121414161611
St. AlbansSt. Albans St. Albans13131515171722
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights151517172244
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints141416161133
GunstonGunston Herons1616113355
River RatsRiver Rats River Rats1717224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers22446688
CavaliersCavaliers Cavaliers33557799
BruinsBruins Bruins4466881010
Edmund Burke SchoolEdmund Burke School Bengals5577991111
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Varsity668810101212
EaglesEagles Eagles779911111313
ZagsZags Zags88101012121414
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Varsity99111113131515
ChargersChargers Chargers1010121214141616
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Varsity1111131315151717
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals12121414161611
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons13131515171722
St. AlbansSt. Albans St. Albans141416161133
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1616113355
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints151517172244
GunstonGunston Herons1717224466
River RatsRiver Rats River Rats11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Porter Kavle '18 [1-8] Ava Walker '20 [1-4]
George Kaye '18 [5-6]
Nicholas Salvesen '18 [7-8]
Panthers Remington King '17 Kimberly Leonard '18
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Casey Cabot '17 [1-8] Talia Frank '17 [1-6]
Gabriel Cropsey '17 [7-8]
Bengals Tye Rubin '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Marley Hillman '17 [3-4]		 River Carson '17 [1-2]
Genevieve Dickinson '17 [3-8]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Astri Carlsen '17 Hannah Carlsen '19
Varsity Curtis Aaron '17 Greg Sowa '16
Gunston Gunston Luke Miller '16 Jamie Caron '17
Herons Birdie Clarke '16 [1-4]
Chad Angelini '17 [5-8]		 Isabelle Schmittinger '19 [1-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Ryan Rutkowski '16 Emily Clark '16
Varsity Rylee Young '17 Julianna Bennett '17
Severna Park Severna Park Kate Riley '18 Andrew Vernon '15
Falcons Stanley Galloway '18 Jack Carty '17
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Michael Bisson '18 [1-8] Annabelle Hutchinson '17 [1-6]
Kate Rice '16 [7-8]
Saints Emily Harrison '17 [1-8] Kate Rice '16 [1-5]
Ian Mathiesen '15 [6-8]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Ashley Richardson '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Feist '16 [3-4, 7-8]		 Sixiao "Sisi" Chen '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Allesandra Bergmark '17 [3-4]
Shujing "Jennie" Zhang '17 [7-8]
Knights Natalie Jones '16 [1-8] Sara Ramotnik '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Thomas '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Luke Dufour '17 Coleman Walker '17
Varsity Noah Kullman '17 Sarah Westheim '16

Conditions — 04/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1028.7 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1028.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Annapolis/Severna Park/St. Marys (MD): an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Annapolis/Severna Park/St. Marys (MD) by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Annapolis/Severna Park/St. Marys (MD), so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →