| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Key School | Zags | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Edmund Burke School | Bengals | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Sts. Peter & Paul | Varsity | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,618 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 1 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.067 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals | 1 | 7.89 school +0.46 | Connor Bayless / Aidan Morgan 2.77 Stephanie Houck / Parker Bass 2.65 Stephen Duncan / Austin Smith 2.00 | 94% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 7 | Edmund Burke School Bengals | 2 | 4.46 | Casey Cabot / Gabriel Cropsey 2.04 Tye Rubin / Genevieve Dickinson 1.44 Marley Hillman / Talia Frank 0.99 | 6% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 7.89 | 10.89 | 1–0 | 0.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 94% |
| 7 | Edmund Burke School | 4.46 | 1.46 | 0–1 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | Severn School | Edmund Burke School | 94% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Panthers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Zags | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Falcons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bengals | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bengals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Falcons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bengals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals | Connor Bayless '17 Stephanie Houck '17 Stephen Duncan '16 |
Aidan Morgan '17 Parker Bass '16 Austin Smith '16 |
|
Edmund Burke School | Bengals | Casey Cabot '17 Marley Hillman '17 Tye Rubin '17 |
Gabriel Cropsey '17 Talia Frank '17 Genevieve Dickinson '17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
