| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Varsity | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 3–0 |
| 3 |  |
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
Lane Tech College Prep | Varsity | 2–1 |
| 5 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 2–1 |
| 6 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 2–2 |
| 7 |  |
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | 1–2 |
| 7 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | 1–2 |
| 9 |  |
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | 1–3 |
| 10 |  |
Evanston Township HS | Varsity | 0–3 |
| 11 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,627 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 19 matches (47%) with a log-loss of 0.777 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.44 ± 0.56: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 4% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.42 | 4.42 | 3–0 | 0.8 | ≥+3.00 | 4.8 | 2% |
| 1 | Latin School of Chicago | 3.99 | 6.99 | 4–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| 4 | Lane Tech College Prep | 0.67 | 3.51 | 2–1 | 0.6 | +2.84 | 2.5 | 9% |
| 3 | Arrowhead High School | 4.00 | 5.09 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.09 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 5 | Loyola Academy | 3.00 | 3.15 | 2–1 | 1.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 7 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 2.23 | 2.32 | 1–2 | 1.0 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 7 | Hinsdale Central High School | 2.26 | 1.93 | 1–2 | 1.1 | −0.33 | 0.0 | 84% |
| 6 | Lake Forest High School | 4.87 | 3.19 | 2–2 | 3.1 | −1.68 | 1.1 | 97% |
| 9 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 2.99 | 0.97 | 1–3 | 2.3 | −2.02 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 10 | Evanston Township HS | 2.58 | -0.42 | 0–3 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
| 11 | New Trier HS | 2.53 | -0.47 | 0–4 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Maroons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
