Latin School of Chicago '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.35 (fleet 2.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–14 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 28–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 16–10 against 17.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 1.92 | 0.95 | 4–6 | 5.8 | −0.97 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.85 | 2.12 | 12–4 | 11.4 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 2.32 |
| MISSA Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 0.31 |
| IL State Champs | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.8 | 1.65 |
| Ice Breaker | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 1.88 |
| HS Invite - Baker Central Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Halloween Spectacular - V | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.7 | 1.22 |
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | B | 20 | 10.2 | 0.86 |
| Kick Off Classic 2014 | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.5 | -0.82 |
| Great Lakes Championships | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.6 | 0.74 |
| Autumn Classic | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 3.00 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifiers 2014 | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 0.65 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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