Lake Forest High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.34 (fleet 2.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–12 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 20–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 11–5 against 9.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.84 | 2.56 | 11–5 | 9.2 | +0.72 | 0.7 | 24% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Kick Off Classic | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 2.08 |
| Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.7 | 0.66 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.5 | 1.39 |
| MISSA Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.2 | 2.64 |
| HS Invite - Baker Central Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Keel Boat Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 2.8 | — |
| MISSA Halloween Spectacular - V | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.6 | 1.20 |
| Great Lakes Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | 1.53 |
| Autumn Classic | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.2 | 0.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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