New Trier HS '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.74 (fleet 2.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–22 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 21–22 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 12–16 against 17.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 2.40 | -1.54 | 1–11 | 6.8 | −3.95 | 10.5 | >99% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.34 | 2.54 | 11–5 | 10.5 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 52% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 3.16 |
| MISSA Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 1.67 |
| IL State Champs | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.9 | 2.68 |
| Ice Breaker | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.8 | 2.47 |
| HS Invite - Baker Central Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Keel Boat Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 2.4 | — |
| MISSA Halloween Spectacular - V | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | 0.94 |
| Kick Off Classic 2014 | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.4 | 1.21 |
| Great Lakes Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 2.29 |
| Autumn Classic | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 3.09 |
| 2014 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.2 | 0.94 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifiers 2014 | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.2 | 1.11 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Colin Richards |  University of Vermont |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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