Great Oaks Invitational Silver Rnd

HostSouthern Yacht Club
Date11/23/2014
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Lake Highland Preparatory School	Varsity	9	9
2	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	9	9
3	Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	12	12
4	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	20	20
5	Portland High School	Bulldogs	29	29
6	Ben Franklin High School	Benjamin Franklin	31	31
7	Niceville High School	Varsity	33	33
8	Toms River South	Indians	34	34
9	Choctawhatchee High School	Varsity	37	37
10	St. Thomas' Episcopal	Saints	37	37
11	Clear Falls High School	Knights	40	40
12	Jesuit High School, NOLA	Blue Jays	46	46
13	Maury High School	Varsity	50	50
14	Fairhope High School	Varsity	55	55
15	Brother Martin	Varsity	55	55
16	Louise S. McGehee	Hawksa	60	60
17	Gulfport High School	Varsity	66	66
18	Ursuline Academy	Varsity	67	67
19	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	67	67
20	Mount Carmel Academy	Competitive team	70	70

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Lake Highland Preparatory School	Varsity	1	4	1	3	9	Jack Glenn '17 Claire Glenn '15
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	4	1	3	1	9	Kathryn Bornarth '17 [1] Trevor Bornarth '18 [2-4] Trevor Tigges '17 [1] Nick Ochalek '17 [2] Andrew Hammond '16 [3-4]
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	3	5	2	2	12	G. Alex White '16 David Robertson '17
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	6	2	8	4	20	Zach Bresnik '16 [1, 3-4] Mary Morano '17 [2] Maddy Moore '15 [1, 3-4] Lucas Dutton '16 [2]
Portland High School	Bulldogs	9	3	9	8	29	Nick Cushman '17 [1-2] Mamie Walsh '15 [3-4] Hallie Repeta '15 [1-2] Isabel Szatkowski '15 [3] Nathan Robinson '17 [4]
Ben Franklin High School	Benjamin Franklin	7	6	4	14	31	Alexander Ergun '15 [1-4] Kathrine Robinson '15 [1-2] Jaque Boudreaux '15 [3-4]
Niceville High School	Varsity	10	7	11	5	33	Kelly Stukbauer '16 [1-2] Ian Hunter '16 [3-4] Paul Talty '17 [1-2] Anna Marie Vaccaro '16 [3-4]
Toms River South	Indians	2	10	12	10	34	Katie Oksen '15 [1-3] Willow Wahlers '17 [4] Emily Oksen '18 [1-3] Madeline Dechicchio '17 [4]
Choctawhatchee High School	Varsity	8	13	7	BYE	37	Connor Rudzki '17 [1-2] George Hambleton '17 [3-4] George Hambleton '17 [1-2] Houston Loch '16 [3-4]
St. Thomas' Episcopal	Saints	11	14	6	6	37	Celia Houston '19 Valerie Herrscher '16
Clear Falls High School	Knights	5	8	14	13	40	Jack Stancil '18 Doug Byerly '18
Jesuit High School, NOLA	Blue Jays	DNS	9	5	11	46	Michael Haupt '17 [1-2] Robert Argote '18 [3-4] William Nance '18 [1-2] Langston Goldenberg '19 [3-4]
Maury High School	Varsity	15	18	10	7	50	Jonathan Rowland '15 [1, 3-4] Will Ellson '15 [2] Charlotte Hennessy '15 [1, 3] Jonathan Rowland '15 [2] Will Ellson '15 [4]
Fairhope High School	Varsity	14	17	15	9	55	Camille Mcgriff '18 [1, 4] Caleb Milham '17 [2] Max Morgan '18 [3] Saunders Fitzgerald '17 [1, 4] Gracyn Myers '18 [2] Sam Koser '18 [3]
Brother Martin	Varsity	17	12	BKD	12	55	Kevin Broadbridge '15 Gabriel Cespedes '15
Louise S. McGehee	Hawksa	12	15	17	16	60	Amelie Lagarde '16 Ansley Nelson '15
Gulfport High School	Varsity	13	11	DNS	DNS	66	Dawson Doucet '18 Lilly Nolte '16
Ursuline Academy	Varsity	16	16	18	17	67	Amanda Demesia '17 Kaitlin Daly '17
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	18	19	13	BYE	67	Mark Freidin '16 [1-2] Liam Dwyer '17 [3-4] Joshua Hybl '17 [1-2] Mike Freidin '15 [3-4]
Mount Carmel Academy	Competitive team	19	20	16	15	70	Sydney Huth '15 [1-2] Vivian Cerruti '24 [3-4] Madison Larrieu '19 [1-2] Kate Moise '19 [3-4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin	16	18	20	22
Brother Martin Varsity	14	16	18	20
Choctawhatchee High School Varsity	28	30	32	34
Clear Falls High School Knights	12	14	16	18
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	6	8	10	12
Fairhope High School Varsity	4	6	8	10
Gulfport High School Varsity	2	4	6	8
Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays	24	26	28	30
Lake Highland Preparatory School Varsity	22	24	26	28
Louise S. McGehee Hawksa	40	2	4	6
Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders	20	22	24	26
Maury High School Varsity	10	12	14	16
Mount Carmel Academy Competitive team	26	28	30	32
Niceville High School Varsity	36	38	40	2
Portland High School Bulldogs	30	32	34	36
St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints	18	20	22	24
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	8	10	12	14
Summit High School Hilltoppers	34	36	38	40
Toms River South Indians	32	34	36	38
Ursuline Academy Varsity	38	40	2	4

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Ben Franklin High School	Benjamin Franklin	Alexander Ergun '15 [1-4]	Kathrine Robinson '15 [1-2] Jaque Boudreaux '15 [3-4]
Brother Martin	Varsity	Kevin Broadbridge '15	Gabriel Cespedes '15
Choctawhatchee High School	Varsity	Connor Rudzki '17 [1-2] George Hambleton '17 [3-4]	George Hambleton '17 [1-2] Houston Loch '16 [3-4]
Clear Falls High School	Knights	Jack Stancil '18	Doug Byerly '18
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	G. Alex White '16	David Robertson '17
Fairhope High School	Varsity	Camille Mcgriff '18 [1, 4] Caleb Milham '17 [2] Max Morgan '18 [3]	Saunders Fitzgerald '17 [1, 4] Gracyn Myers '18 [2] Sam Koser '18 [3]
Gulfport High School	Varsity	Dawson Doucet '18	Lilly Nolte '16
Jesuit High School, NOLA	Blue Jays	Michael Haupt '17 [1-2] Robert Argote '18 [3-4]	William Nance '18 [1-2] Langston Goldenberg '19 [3-4]
Lake Highland Preparatory School	Varsity	Jack Glenn '17	Claire Glenn '15
Louise S. McGehee	Hawksa	Amelie Lagarde '16	Ansley Nelson '15
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	Zach Bresnik '16 [1, 3-4] Mary Morano '17 [2]	Maddy Moore '15 [1, 3-4] Lucas Dutton '16 [2]
Maury High School	Varsity	Jonathan Rowland '15 [1, 3-4] Will Ellson '15 [2]	Charlotte Hennessy '15 [1, 3] Jonathan Rowland '15 [2] Will Ellson '15 [4]
Mount Carmel Academy	Competitive team	Sydney Huth '15 [1-2] Vivian Cerruti '24 [3-4]	Madison Larrieu '19 [1-2] Kate Moise '19 [3-4]
Niceville High School	Varsity	Kelly Stukbauer '16 [1-2] Ian Hunter '16 [3-4]	Paul Talty '17 [1-2] Anna Marie Vaccaro '16 [3-4]
Portland High School	Bulldogs	Nick Cushman '17 [1-2] Mamie Walsh '15 [3-4]	Hallie Repeta '15 [1-2] Isabel Szatkowski '15 [3] Nathan Robinson '17 [4]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	Kathryn Bornarth '17 [1] Trevor Bornarth '18 [2-4]	Trevor Tigges '17 [1] Nick Ochalek '17 [2] Andrew Hammond '16 [3-4]
St. Thomas' Episcopal	Saints	Celia Houston '19	Valerie Herrscher '16
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	Mark Freidin '16 [1-2] Liam Dwyer '17 [3-4]	Joshua Hybl '17 [1-2] Mike Freidin '15 [3-4]
Toms River South	Indians	Katie Oksen '15 [1-3] Willow Wahlers '17 [4]	Emily Oksen '18 [1-3] Madeline Dechicchio '17 [4]
Ursuline Academy	Varsity	Amanda Demesia '17	Kaitlin Daly '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Great Oaks Invitational Silver Rnd

Division A

From the notes