B. Hill #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Stevenson High School Stevenson High School Varsity 15 15
2 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 16 16
3 Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 25 25
4 Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 26 26
5 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 36 36
6 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 38 38
7 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 39 39
8 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 46 46
9 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 48 48
10 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 1 61 61
11 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves 62 62
12 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Green 68 68
13 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 2 79 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Stevenson High School Stevenson High School Varsity 1 2 2 1 1 8 15 Spencer Glickson '22
Zoe Zoghlin '21
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 2 4 5 2 2 1 16 Henry Scholz '23
Lucia Marquez '21
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 4 1 7 3 3 7 25 Abigail Shanley-Roberts '21
Nate Koh '20
Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 6 8 1 4 4 3 26 Brit Vondersitt '20
John Palkovic '20
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 3 3 9 5 6 10 36 Casey Murray '20
Tristan Mcdonald '24
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 5 12 4 7 8 2 38 Leo Kumar '23
Isaac Martinez '23
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 8 6 6 6 7 6 39 Charlie Herrick '22
Tim Mooney '21
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 7 10 8 8 9 4 46 Zach Biela '20
Daniel Fogarty '19
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity DNS 7 3 9 10 5 48 Miles Ford '20
Julia Bogdanowicz '21
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 1 9 13 DNS 11 5 9 61 Avery Bryant '21
Tyler Knohl '22
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves 11 9 10 10 11 11 62 Willem Aspinall '21
Poppy Gelman '22
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Green 10 5 11 DNS DNS DNS 68 Jack Ruder '19
Harper Williams '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Orange 2 12 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 79 Toby Riecke '21
Hannah Tracey '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Green131313131313
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Wolves888888
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Orange 1111111111111
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Orange 2121212121212
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity999999
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits101010101010
Glenbrook South High SchoolGlenbrook South High School Titans666666
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 1111111
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 2222222
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 3333333
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 4444444
Lake Forest AcademyLake Forest Academy Varsity555555
Stevenson High SchoolStevenson High School Varsity777777

Conditions — 04/27/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌨️Heavy snow
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1014.7 hPa

Temperature

36°F
↑ 41°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 28°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 13.5 kn
Gusts to 27.0 kn
From ENE (66°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1014.7 hPa Rain0.02 in Snow3.45 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lake Forest: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.09 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Forest, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →