| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 4–1 |
| 2 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 2–3 |
| 6 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,691 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 15 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.637 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.44 ± 0.71: a typical event, more orderly than 19% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lake Forest High School | 3.85 | 5.31 | 3–2 | 1.7 | +1.46 | 1.1 | 22% |
| 2 | Minnetonka High School | 5.52 | 6.32 | 4–1 | 3.5 | +0.80 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 5.67 | 6.26 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.60 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 4 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 3.67 | 4.21 | 2–3 | 1.5 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 5 | New Trier HS | 4.18 | 4.11 | 2–3 | 2.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 6 | Latin School of Chicago | 4.70 | 1.70 | 0–5 | 2.6 | ≤−3.00 | 4.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Biela | Lake Forest High School | 0.59 | 2.06 | 3–2 | 1.7 | +1.46 | 1.1 | 22% |
| Nate Olmsted | Minnetonka High School | 2.10 | 2.90 | 4–1 | 3.5 | +0.80 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Owen Patterson | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.84 | 2.39 | 2–3 | 1.5 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Alessandra Torres | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 0.58 | 1.12 | 2–3 | 1.5 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Wyatt Harley | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.11 | 1.65 | 2–3 | 1.5 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Dylan Cotter | New Trier HS | 1.68 | 1.61 | 2–3 | 2.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 70% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Romans | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Romans | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Scouts | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Trevian | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Romans | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Scouts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Romans | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | Blake Stackpoole '18 Christiana Scheibner '19 John Walton '18 |
Gwen Hudson '20 Drew Clutterbuck '19 Dominic Dulac '20 |
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Graham Ness '19 Matthew Kickhafer '19 Nate Olmsted '19 |
Lucia Loosbrock '21 Henry Westlind '19 Rowan O'Connell '20 |
|
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | Connor Sheridan '18 Nicholas Elsasser '18 Zach Biela '20 |
Su Yardimci '18 William Porter '18 Gabe Kobza '20 |
|
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | Alessandra Torres '20 Owen Patterson '19 Wyatt Harley '21 |
Tj Boland '19 Asha Baddi '20 Aviva Kaplan '20 |
|
New Trier HS | Trevian | Dylan Cotter '18 Lolly Vasilion '18 Noah Barton '19 |
Ben Spring '18 Quinn Keenan '19 Nathan Whisner '19 |
|
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | Marleigh Belsley '19 Nikolas Chambers '19 Will Davies '18 |
James Nappo '20 Julia Fairbank '19 Cj Ricci '20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
