Missa Great Oaks Gold* Qualifier

HostPontiac Yacht Club
Date09/28/2019
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Indian Hill	Braves	34	34
2	Novi	Varsity	44	44
3	Bay High School	Varsity	52	52
4	Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	74	74
5	Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	77	77
6	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRMS Blue	77	77
7	Spring Lake High School	Red	113	113
8	Saint Joseph Academy (OH)	Varsity	116	116
9	Jones College Prep	Eagles	120	120
10	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	120	120
11	Troy High School	Colts	120	120
12	Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black	131	131
13	Southwest High School	Lakers	138	138
14	Traverse City West	TCW Varsity Green	139	139
15	Pewaukee High School	Varsity	140	140
16	Fenwick High School	Friars	140	140

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Indian Hill	Braves	2	8	9	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	34	Sara Schumann '21 Annie Schumann '21
Novi	Varsity	3	7	1	2	1	1	4	5	10	3	3	4	44	Michael Kirkman '21 Conner Kirkman '23
Bay High School	Varsity	1	11	2	6	2	3	3	4	9	6	2	3	52	Jack Vanderhorst '22 Ellen Petrigan '22
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	13	1	4	4	6	6	8	2	7	4	9	10	74	Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-12] Paige Gorman '21 [1-4, 9-11] Adrian Stone '20 [5-8, 12]
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	5	14	3	7	DSQ	9	1	3	3	9	4	2	77	Luke Hosek '20 Lauren Mellinger '21
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRMS Blue	6	3	6	5	10	5	5	7	4	5	12	9	77	Owen Bannasch '22 Madison Paulus '20
Spring Lake High School	Red	10	2	12	12	4	11	11	8	13	2	14	14	113	Zoe Czadzeck '20 [1-3, 5-7, 10-11] Bryson Hough '21 [4, 8-9, 12] Griffin Phares '21 [1-10, 12] Ben Dornbush '22 [11]
Saint Joseph Academy (OH)	Varsity	12	4	15	15	7	4	9	9	14	15	7	5	116	Michaela O'Donnell '20 Megan Fegen '22
Jones College Prep	Eagles	4	6	14	9	5	16	13	14	6	8	10	15	120	Emmett Nevel '21 Molly Sheridan '21
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	15	13	5	1	8	10	12	13	8	12	15	8	120	Charlie Herrick '22 [1-2, 8-12] Ulysses Hennelly '20 [3-7] Saskia Teterycz '21 [1, 9-12] Ulysses Hennelly '20 [2] Mary Castellini '21 [3-8]
Troy High School	Colts	16	5	8	14	14	8	DSQ	15	5	7	5	6	120	Emily Pytell '21 Will Hilborn '22
Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black	14	16	10	10	9	13	14	6	2	14	16	7	131	Noah Robitshek '21 [1-12] Griffin Wright '21 [1-2, 11-12] Abigail Paul '21 [3-10]
Southwest High School	Lakers	7	9	13	11	11	12	15	16	15	10	8	11	138	James Jagielski '21 [1-12] Helene Schroeder '22 [1-6, 12] Sam Fider '22 [7-11]
Traverse City West	TCW Varsity Green	11	15	11	16	12	7	6	11	11	13	13	13	139	Liam Clone '20 Ella Beck '22
Pewaukee High School	Varsity	8	10	DSQ	8	15	15	7	10	12	11	11	16	140	Carly Kiss '21 [1-5, 7-8, 10, 12] David Kiss '23 [6, 9, 11] Ellie Adams '21 [1-5, 7-8, 10, 12]
Fenwick High School	Friars	9	12	7	13	13	14	10	12	16	16	6	12	140	John Hultquist '20 [1-8, 11-12] Aidan Soule '25 [9-10] Aidan Soule '25 [1-4, 11-12] William Carl '23 [5-8] John Hultquist '20 [9-10]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Bay High School Varsity	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue	2	2	1	1	18	18	15	15	14	14	13	13
Cranbrook Kingswood Blue	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	15	15
Fenwick High School Friars	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Indian Hill Braves	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Jones College Prep Eagles	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Novi Varsity	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Pewaukee High School Varsity	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
Saint Joseph Academy (OH) Varsity	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	18	18
Southwest High School Lakers	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Spring Lake High School Red	13	13	14	14	15	15	18	18	1	1	2	2
Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green	15	15	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Troy High School Colts	18	18	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Bay High School	Varsity	Jack Vanderhorst '22	Ellen Petrigan '22
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRMS Blue	Owen Bannasch '22	Madison Paulus '20
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-12]	Paige Gorman '21 [1-4, 9-11] Adrian Stone '20 [5-8, 12]
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	Charlie Herrick '22 [1-2, 8-12] Ulysses Hennelly '20 [3-7]	Saskia Teterycz '21 [1, 9-12] Ulysses Hennelly '20 [2] Mary Castellini '21 [3-8]
Fenwick High School	Friars	John Hultquist '20 [1-8, 11-12] Aidan Soule '25 [9-10]	Aidan Soule '25 [1-4, 11-12] William Carl '23 [5-8] John Hultquist '20 [9-10]
Indian Hill	Braves	Sara Schumann '21	Annie Schumann '21
Jones College Prep	Eagles	Emmett Nevel '21	Molly Sheridan '21
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	Luke Hosek '20	Lauren Mellinger '21
Novi	Varsity	Michael Kirkman '21	Conner Kirkman '23
Pewaukee High School	Varsity	Carly Kiss '21 [1-5, 7-8, 10, 12] David Kiss '23 [6, 9, 11]	Ellie Adams '21 [1-5, 7-8, 10, 12]
Saint Joseph Academy (OH)	Varsity	Michaela O'Donnell '20	Megan Fegen '22
Southwest High School	Lakers	James Jagielski '21 [1-12]	Helene Schroeder '22 [1-6, 12] Sam Fider '22 [7-11]
Spring Lake High School	Red	Zoe Czadzeck '20 [1-3, 5-7, 10-11] Bryson Hough '21 [4, 8-9, 12]	Griffin Phares '21 [1-10, 12] Ben Dornbush '22 [11]
Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black	Noah Robitshek '21 [1-12]	Griffin Wright '21 [1-2, 11-12] Abigail Paul '21 [3-10]
Traverse City West	TCW Varsity Green	Liam Clone '20	Ella Beck '22
Troy High School	Colts	Emily Pytell '21	Will Hilborn '22

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

Missa Great Oaks Gold* Qualifier

Division A

From the notes