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Columbia Bay Scrimmage #1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 3 6 9
2 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 10 5 15
3 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 11 15 26
4 Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Mixed 14 12 26
5 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 18 14 32
6 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 17 16 33
7 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 13 23 36
8 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 22 17 39
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1 1 1 3 Aisling Sullivan '18
Eleanor Westerbeck '19
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 5 3 2 10 Will Plovanic '19
Sammy Stoeber '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 2 2 7 11 Austin Suvari '19
Lucy Mulvihill '18
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 3 7 3 13 Preston Anderson '18
Grace Rigas '19
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Mixed 4 4 6 14 Sam Wojcik '19
John Hultquist '20
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 7 6 4 17 Natalie Norton '18
Angelina Simon '20
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 8 5 5 18 Gregor Leech '18
Kari Hoover '18
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 6 8 8 22 Nic Granchalek '20
Ulysses Hennelly '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 1 3 5 Noah Barton '19
Claire Pecard '17
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 2 2 2 6 Kate Crannell '20
Cristina Dombrowski '19
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Mixed 3 3 6 12 Lily Wojcik '18
Anna Franco '17
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 6 7 1 14 Hugh Rider '18
Susie Driscoll '18
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 4 6 5 15 Ryan Henderson '19
Will Mccrory '18
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 7 5 4 16 Andrew Lestingi '17
Caroline Hayes '18
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 5 4 8 17 Lily Allen '19
Elias Henke '19
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 8 8 7 23 Will Alter '19 [1]
Tasker Peacock '20 [2-3]
Elle Schoonveld '19 [1]
Will Alter '19 [2-3]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity333
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 1222
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 2141414
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 1131313
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 2171717
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Mixed161616
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian888
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack555

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity999
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 1111111
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 2666
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 1101010
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 2151515
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Mixed111
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian777
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack444

Conditions — 03/19/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1027.4 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 43°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From E (98°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1027.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Columbia Yacht Club-Chicago, IL: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.51 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Columbia Yacht Club-Chicago, IL by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Columbia Yacht Club-Chicago, IL, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →