| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Varsity | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,563 team race matches sailed before 2016-10-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 10 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.678 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.94 ± 0.72: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 8% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack | 1 | 5.52 school −0.22 | Ray Groble / Eleanor Westerbeck 1.86 Aisling Sullivan / Matthew Alfano Logan O'Connor / Cristina Dombrowski 2.03 | 78% | 3–1 (75%) | −0.1 |
| 2 | New Trier HS Trevian | 3 | 3.92 school −0.57 | Spencer Keenan / Michael Rivkin 2.10 W. Quinn Keenan / Katie Lowenbaum 0.81 Dylan Cotter / Ben Spring 1.55 | 47% | 3–1 (75%) | +1.1 |
| 3 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity | 4 | 3.39 school +0.14 | Alessandra Torres / Caroline Bernet 0.14 Owen Patterson / Lucie Mcknight 1.61 Peter Odom / Hanna Mularczyk 1.47 | 36% | 3–1 (75%) | +1.6 |
| 4 | Latin School of Chicago Varsity | 2 | 5.01 school +0.18 | Marleigh Belsley / Julia Fairbank 1.73 Nikolas Chambers / James Nappo 1.32 Will Davies / Anna Sanders 1.75 | 69% | 1–3 (25%) | −1.8 |
| 5 | Hinsdale Central High School Varsity | 5 | 2.50 school −0.41 | Cj Enright / Bryan Phlamm 1.08 David Phlamm / Saunders Thompson 1.32 Berenger Jeannides / Evan Fallon | 20% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 3.39 | 5.91 | 3–1 | 1.4 | +2.52 | 2.2 | 11% |
| 2 | New Trier HS | 3.92 | 5.80 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +1.88 | 1.1 | 24% |
| 1 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 5.52 | 5.28 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 4 | Latin School of Chicago | 5.01 | 2.18 | 1–3 | 2.8 | −2.82 | 2.8 | >99% |
| 5 | Hinsdale Central High School | 2.50 | -0.50 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandra Torres | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 0.14 | 2.67 | 3–1 | 1.4 | +2.52 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Owen Patterson | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.61 | 4.13 | 3–1 | 1.4 | +2.52 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Peter Odom | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.47 | 3.99 | 3–1 | 1.4 | +2.52 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Spencer Keenan | New Trier HS | 2.10 | 3.98 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +1.88 | 1.1 | 24% |
| W. Quinn Keenan | New Trier HS | 0.81 | 2.69 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +1.88 | 1.1 | 24% |
| Dylan Cotter | New Trier HS | 1.55 | 3.43 | 3–1 | 1.9 | +1.88 | 1.1 | 24% |
| Ray Groble | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.86 | 1.62 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Aisling Sullivan | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.84 | 1.60 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Logan O'Connor | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 2.03 | 1.78 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Cj Enright | Hinsdale Central High School | 1.08 | -1.92 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| David Phlamm | Hinsdale Central High School | 1.32 | -1.68 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Berenger Jeannides | Hinsdale Central High School | 0.49 | -2.51 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Latin School of Chicago | Hinsdale Central High School | 88% | |
| 1 | 2 | New Trier HS | Hinsdale Central High School | 75% | |
| 1 | 3 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Hinsdale Central High School | 91% | |
| 1 | 4 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Hinsdale Central High School | 66% | |
| 1 | 5 | New Trier HS | Latin School of Chicago | 30% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Latin School of Chicago | 60% | |
| 1 | 7 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Latin School of Chicago | 22% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | New Trier HS | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 22% | upset |
| 1 | 9 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | New Trier HS | 40% | upset |
| 1 | 10 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 84% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Trevian | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | Aisling Sullivan '18 Logan O'Connor '17 Ray Groble '17 |
Matthew Alfano '17 Cristina Dombrowski '19 Eleanor Westerbeck '19 |
|
New Trier HS | Trevian | Dylan Cotter '18 Spencer Keenan '17 W. Quinn Keenan '19 |
Ben Spring '18 Michael Rivkin '17 Katie Lowenbaum '17 |
|
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | Alessandra Torres '20 Owen Patterson '19 Peter Odom '17 |
Caroline Bernet '17 Lucie Mcknight '17 Hanna Mularczyk '17 |
|
Latin School of Chicago | Varsity | Marleigh Belsley '19 Nikolas Chambers '19 Will Davies '18 |
Julia Fairbank '19 James Nappo '20 Anna Sanders '20 |
|
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | Berenger Jeannides '18 Cj Enright '17 David Phlamm '18 |
Evan Fallon '18 Bryan Phlamm '21 Saunders Thompson '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
