| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Mixed | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,505 team race matches sailed before 2016-09-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 10 matches (50%) with a log-loss of 0.597 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.31 ± 0.81: a typical event, more orderly than 22% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Latin School of Chicago | 3.15 | 5.73 | 3–1 | 1.3 | +2.58 | 2.4 | 9% |
| 1 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 4.38 | 5.52 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.14 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 2 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 5.43 | 5.08 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.36 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 4 | New Trier HS | 3.83 | 2.25 | 1–3 | 2.0 | −1.58 | 0.8 | 95% |
| 5 | Hinsdale Central High School | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Show | Latin School of Chicago | 0.87 | 3.45 | 3–1 | 1.3 | +2.58 | 2.4 | 9% |
| Ray Groble | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.68 | 2.82 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.14 | 0.4 | 42% |
| Logan O'Connor | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.74 | 2.88 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.14 | 0.4 | 42% |
| Peter Odom | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.38 | 1.02 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.36 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Spencer Keenan | New Trier HS | 1.77 | 0.19 | 1–3 | 2.0 | −1.58 | 0.8 | 95% |
| Mitchell Thompson | Hinsdale Central High School | 0.60 | -2.40 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| David Phlamm | Hinsdale Central High School | 1.28 | -1.72 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | New Trier HS | Hinsdale Central High School | 71% | |
| 1 | 2 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Hinsdale Central High School | 71% | |
| 1 | 3 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Hinsdale Central High School | 86% | |
| 1 | 4 | Latin School of Chicago | Hinsdale Central High School | 49% | upset |
| 1 | 5 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | New Trier HS | 50% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | New Trier HS | 82% | |
| 1 | 7 | Latin School of Chicago | New Trier HS | 41% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 34% | upset |
| 1 | 9 | Latin School of Chicago | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 25% | upset |
| 1 | 10 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Latin School of Chicago | 85% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | Bridget Groble '17 Logan O'Connor '17 Matthew Alfano '17 Ray Groble '17 |
Cristina Dombrowski '19 Eleanor Westerbeck '19 Aisling Sullivan '18 |
|
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | Gloria Kevliciute '17 James Wagner '17 Peter Odom '17 |
Hanna Mularczyk '17 Becca Rose '17 Tj Boland '19 |
|
Latin School of Chicago | Mixed | Marleigh Belsley '19 Nikolas Chambers '19 No Show |
Julia Fairbank '19 James Nappo '20 Anna Sanders '20 |
|
New Trier HS | Trevian | Dylan Cotter '18 Lolly Vasilion '18 Spencer Keenan '17 W. Quinn Keenan '19 |
W. Quinn Keenan '19 Matthew Trunsky '17 Michael Rivkin '17 Dylan Cotter '18 |
|
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | David Phlamm '18 Mitchell Thompson '19 Sherman Thompson '18 |
Berenger Jeannides '18 Saunders Thompson '21 Cj Enright '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
