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Baker Midwest Qualifier

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 8–2
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 8–2
3 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 6–4
4 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 5–5
5 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 5–5
6 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3–7
7 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3–2
8 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 2–3
8 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 2–3
10 Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 1–4
11 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1–4
11 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 1–4

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,098 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 18 matches (44%) with a log-loss of 0.786 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.70 ± 0.56: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
2Minnetonka High School
Skippers		45.42
school −0.38		Conrad (Cort) Vandlik / Graham Ness 2.26
Lily Loosbrock / Berette Mcnaught 2.03
Mike Johnson / Carl Eaton		47%6–1 (86%)+2.7
4St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL
Wolfpack		35.90
school −0.11		Ray Groble / Tiernaur Anderson 1.81 4–0
Abby Mcfadyen / Bridget Groble 2.25 4–0
Logan O'Connor / Aisling Sullivan 1.92 4–0
Ray Groble / Bridget Groble 1.81 0–3
Abby Mcfadyen / Aisling Sullivan 2.25 0–3
Logan O'Connor / Tiernaur Anderson 1.95 0–3		57%4–3 (57%)+0.0
5Arrowhead High School
Warhawks		26.54
school +0.56		Jack Schweda / Chloe Frentzel 2.00
Lily Stemper / Gavin Burkhart
Jonothan Bailey / Erin Schaubel 2.05		71%4–3 (57%)−0.9
8Orono High School
Scarlet		54.05
school −0.63		Samuel Bartel / Chase Blum 2.47
Henry Jaffray / Archie Bolgar 1.00
Erich Pinske / Erik Sundberg 1.14		29%2–3 (40%)+0.6
10Grosse Pointe North High School
Norsemen		62.93John Huskin / Adam Weinkauf 1.47
Lindsey Ramsdell / Ellie Frame 1.25 1–2
Mathew Moores / Teddy Prokop 0.24 1–2
Lindsey Ramsdell / Nicole Fazekas 1.12 0–2
Mathew Moores / Mclellan 0.16 0–2		12%1–4 (20%)+0.4
11Latin School of Chicago
Varsity		16.68
school +0.15		Mark Davies / Julia Fairbank 2.76
Allie Cahn / Nikolas Chambers 1.96 1–2
Will Davies / Leah Peluchiwski 1.75 1–2
Allie Cahn / Leah Peluchiwski 2.04 0–2
Will Davies / Marleigh Belsley 1.69 0–1
Marleigh Belsley / Will Davies 1.81 0–1		75%1–4 (20%)−2.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Minnetonka High School5.428.226–13.3+2.803.93%
8Orono High School4.054.912–31.4+0.860.343%
10Grosse Pointe North High School2.933.751–40.6+0.820.249%
4St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL5.905.904–34.0−0.000.066%
5Arrowhead High School6.545.674–34.9−0.860.590%
11Latin School of Chicago6.682.831–43.7−3.855.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Conrad (Cort) VandlikMinnetonka High School2.265.066–13.3+2.803.93%
Lily LoosbrockMinnetonka High School2.034.836–13.3+2.803.93%
Mike JohnsonMinnetonka High School1.434.236–13.3+2.803.93%
Henry JaffrayOrono High School1.001.872–31.4+0.860.343%
Erich PinskeOrono High School1.142.002–31.4+0.860.343%
John HuskinGrosse Pointe North High School1.472.291–40.6+0.820.249%
Lindsey RamsdellGrosse Pointe North High School1.252.061–40.6+0.820.249%
Mathew MooresGrosse Pointe North High School0.241.061–40.6+0.820.249%
Ray GrobleSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL1.811.814–34.0−0.000.066%
Abby McfadyenSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL2.252.254–34.0−0.000.066%
Logan O'ConnorSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL1.921.914–34.0−0.000.066%
Lily StemperArrowhead High School1.800.944–34.9−0.860.590%
Jonothan BaileyArrowhead High School2.051.194–34.9−0.860.590%
Allie CahnLatin School of Chicago1.96-1.891–43.7−3.855.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
1St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILArrowhead High School40%upset
2Minnetonka High SchoolOrono High School74%
3Grosse Pointe North High SchoolLatin School of Chicago5%upset
4Arrowhead High SchoolMinnetonka High School70%
5St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILGrosse Pointe North High School90%
6Latin School of ChicagoOrono High School89%
7Minnetonka High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School86%
8Arrowhead High SchoolOrono High School87%
9St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILLatin School of Chicago35%upset
10Orono High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School73%
11Minnetonka High SchoolSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL41%upset
12Arrowhead High SchoolLatin School of Chicago48%upset
13Orono High SchoolSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL20%upset
14Arrowhead High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School95%
15Minnetonka High SchoolLatin School of Chicago26%upset
33St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILArrowhead High School37%upset
37Minnetonka High SchoolSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL41%upset
45Minnetonka High SchoolArrowhead High School29%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-4-5 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2-3-6
2 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2-3-4 def. Orono High School Scarlet 1-5-6
3 Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 1-4-5 def. Latin School of Chicago Varsity 2-3-6
4 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-2-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 3-4-5
5 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-2-4 def. Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 3-5-6
6 Latin School of Chicago Varsity 1-2-4 def. Orono High School Scarlet 3-5-6
7 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1-2-3 def. Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 4-5-6
8 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-2-3 def. Orono High School Scarlet 4-5-6 DNF
9 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 2-3-4 def. Latin School of Chicago Varsity 1-5-6
10 Orono High School Scarlet 1-2-6 def. Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 3-4-5
11 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1-2-4 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 3-5-6
12 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-3-4 def. Latin School of Chicago Varsity 2-5-6
13 Orono High School Scarlet 1-3-6 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 2-4-5
14 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-2-5 def. Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 3-4-6
15 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1-2-5 def. Latin School of Chicago Varsity 3-4-6
16 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1-3-6 def. Lake Forest High School Scouts 2-4-5
17 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 1-2-6 def. New Trier HS Trevian 3-4-5
18 Spring Lake High School Red 2-3-4 def. Wayzata High School Navy 1-5-6
19 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-6 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3-4-5
20 Spring Lake High School Red 1-2-4 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 3-5-6
21 New Trier HS Trevian 1-4-5 def. Wayzata High School Navy 2-3-6
22 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 1-2-6 def. Spring Lake High School Red 3-4-5
23 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-6 def. New Trier HS Trevian 3-4-5
24 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1-2-5 def. Wayzata High School Navy 3-4-6
25 New Trier HS Trevian 1-2-6 def. Spring Lake High School Red 3-4-5
26 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1-2-6 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3-4-5
27 Wayzata High School Navy 1-3-4 def. Lake Forest High School Scouts 2-5-6
28 New Trier HS Trevian 2-3-4 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1-5-6
29 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-4 def. Spring Lake High School Red 3-5-6
30 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 2-3-4 def. Wayzata High School Navy 1-5-6
31 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-3-4 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 2-5-6
32 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1-2-6 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3-4-5
33 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-3-6 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2-4-5
34 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1-2-6 def. Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 3-4-5
35 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-6 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 3-4-5
36 Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-2-5 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3-4-6
37 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1-2-6 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 3-4-5
38 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1-3-5 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 2-4-6
39 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-4 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3-5-6
40 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-2-4 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3-5-6
41 Lake Forest High School Scouts 2-3-4 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1-5-6
42 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1-2-5 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3-4-6
43 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-6 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3-4-5
44 Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1-2-4 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 3-5-6
45 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2-3-4 def. Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1-5-6

Conditions — 05/07/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.3 kn
avg  ·  max 14.7 kn
Gusts to 27.6 kn
From NNE (20°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1010.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Lake Forest — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Lake Forest in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Forest, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →