NJISA 2016 Icebreaker

HostTRYC
Date03/19/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	16	4	20
2	Toms River North	Mariners	15	12	27
3	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	22	7	29
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	4	27	31
5	Southern Regional High School	Rams	18	13	31
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	22	12	34
7	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	13	27	40
8	Chatham High School	Cougars	27	17	44
9	Princeton High School	Little Tigers	21	30	51
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	24	28	52
11	Toms River South	Indians	25	28	53
12	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	26	29	55
13	Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	36	39	75

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	1	1	2	4	Michael Munger '16 [1-3] Teddy Schroeder '16 [1] Kate Swikart '19 [2-3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	5	2	6	13	Jp Burgess '16 Ryan Mullins '19
Toms River North	Mariners	2	12	1	15	Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	7	6	3	16	Joe Laforgia '17 Chris Magno '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams	10	4	4	18	Emily Haig '17 [1-3] Burke Flynn '18 [1, 3] Sam Westby '16 [2]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	4	10	7	21	Nathan Drezner '16 No Show
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	3	8	11	22	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-3] Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2] Mark Freidin '16 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	6	7	9	22	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-2] Regina Vahey '18 [3] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	9	5	10	24	Jonathan Wilhelm '17 Quinn Harrington '19
Toms River South	Indians	8	9	8	25	Joey Cashman '18 [1-3] Paige Zelenak '19 [1] Zach Higham '19 [2-3]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	11	3	12	26	Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Greeley '17
Chatham High School	Cougars	BKD	13	5	27	Juliana Marino '16 [1, 3] Alexander Wilson '16 [2] Grace Evans '17 [1] Jenna Huffman '16 [2-3]
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	12	11	13	36	Blake Biundo '18 Jake Roberts '16

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	2	1	4	Michael Ehnot '18 Mark Iorio '16
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	4	1	2	7	Margot Murray '17 [1-3] Danny Kane '16 [1-2] William Przedpelski '17 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	2	5	5	12	Margaret Maccormack '17 [1-2] Cole Banias '17 [3] Catherine Cooke '17 [1-2]
Toms River North	Mariners	6	3	3	12	Eddie Harrison '18 Mia Porter '18
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	6	4	13	Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3] Tom Green '19 [1-2] Dana Haig '18 [3]
Chatham High School	Cougars	5	4	8	17	Marisa Marino '17 [1-3] Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2] Alexander Wilson '16 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	8	7	12	27	Francesco Sgroi '16 Patrick Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	11	9	7	27	Garret Boyan '17 Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	9	10	9	28	Jack Harrington '18 Luke Caponegro '18
Toms River South	Indians	10	12	6	28	Lauren Zelenak '17 Leo Krajewski '19
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	7	11	11	29	Molly Meehan '19 Sharon Lynch '18
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	12	8	10	30	Ashley Dart '17 No Show
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Garnett Gulls	13	13	13	39	Sophie Ruggiero '18 Emily Mcconnell '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Chatham High School Cougars	13	13	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	12	12	11
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	11	11	10
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	10	10	9
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	9	9	8
Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls	8	8	7
Princeton High School Little Tigers	7	7	6
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	6	6	5
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	5	5	4
Southern Regional High School Rams	4	4	3
Summit High School Hilltoppers	3	3	2
Toms River North Mariners	2	2	1
Toms River South Indians	1	1	13

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Chatham High School Cougars	13	13	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	12	12	11
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	11	11	10
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	10	10	9
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	9	9	8
Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls	8	8	7
Princeton High School Little Tigers	7	7	6
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	6	6	5
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	5	5	4
Southern Regional High School Rams	4	4	3
Summit High School Hilltoppers	3	3	2
Toms River North Mariners	2	2	1
Toms River South Indians	1	1	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Chatham High School	Juliana Marino '16 [1, 3] Alexander Wilson '16 [2]	Grace Evans '17 [1] Jenna Huffman '16 [2-3]
Cougars	Marisa Marino '17 [1-3]	Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2] Alexander Wilson '16 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Chris Magno '17
Colts 1	Michael Ehnot '18	Mark Iorio '16
Christian Brothers Academy	Jp Burgess '16	Ryan Mullins '19
Colts 2	Garret Boyan '17	Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Jonathan Wilhelm '17	Quinn Harrington '19
Colts 3	Jack Harrington '18	Luke Caponegro '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-2] Regina Vahey '18 [3]	Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-2]
Griffins	Margaret Maccormack '17 [1-2] Cole Banias '17 [3]	Catherine Cooke '17 [1-2]
Point Pleasant Beach High School	Blake Biundo '18	Jake Roberts '16
Garnett Gulls	Sophie Ruggiero '18	Emily Mcconnell '18
Princeton High School	Nathan Drezner '16	No Show
Little Tigers	Ashley Dart '17	No Show
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Caroline Greeley '17
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Sharon Lynch '18
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16 [1-3]	Teddy Schroeder '16 [1] Kate Swikart '19 [2-3]
Bulldogs	Francesco Sgroi '16	Patrick Modin '19
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-3]	Burke Flynn '18 [1, 3] Sam Westby '16 [2]
Rams	Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3]	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Dana Haig '18 [3]
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-3]	Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2] Mark Freidin '16 [3]
Hilltoppers	Margot Murray '17 [1-3]	Danny Kane '16 [1-2] William Przedpelski '17 [3]
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	James Koerner '17
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Mia Porter '18
Toms River South	Joey Cashman '18 [1-3]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1] Zach Higham '19 [2-3]
Indians	Lauren Zelenak '17	Leo Krajewski '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2016 Icebreaker

Division A

Division B

From the notes