NJISA 2017 Fall Wed Series #6

HostToms River South
Date11/01/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 1	9	4	13
2	Toms River North	Mariners	9	9	18
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	13	10	23
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	9	21	30
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	11	23	34
6	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	30	10	40
7	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	14	28	42
8	Toms River South	Indians	22	24	46
9	Caseys	Caseys	31	30	61
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	24	40	64
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles	44	23	67
12	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	33	37	70
13	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	42	31	73
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	40	35	75
15	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	43	36	79
16	Ranney School	Panthers 2	36	47	83
17	Toms River East	Raiders	49	51	100
18	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	57	57	114

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	2	6	9	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Toms River North	Mariners	2	6	1	9	Eddie Harrison '18 Evan Harrison '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	3	4	2	9	Dana Haig '18 Nate Ertle '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	6	1	4	11	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Oliva Pasquale '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	5	5	3	13	Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	3	7	14	Michael Ehnot '18 Justin Modin '19
Toms River South	Indians	10	7	5	22	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	8	8	8	24	Jack Harrington '18 John Cocozza '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	9	12	30	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-3] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3]
Caseys	Caseys	12	10	9	31
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	7	15	11	33	Michael Pinto '19 [1-3] Patrick York '20 [1-2] Zachary York '20 [3]
Ranney School	Panthers 2	13	13	10	36	Brooke Schmelz '21 Catherine Vucetic '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	15	12	13	40	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	14	14	14	42	Matthew Bell '20 Rodney Wotton '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	11	17	15	43	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Luke Caponegro '18 [3] Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	16	11	17	44	Dino Nicastro '20 Danielle Petry '20
Toms River East	Raiders	17	16	16	49	Loring Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	57

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	1	2	4	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-3] Anson He '20 [1-2] William Beyer '20 [3]
Toms River North	Mariners	4	4	1	9	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	3	3	4	10	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3] Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [1-2] Whitney Butterfield '20 [3]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	5	2	3	10	Brielle Willoughby '20 No Show
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	8	5	8	21	Bridget Green '21 No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	6	10	7	23	Patrick Modin '19 No Show
Central Regional High School	Eagles	7	7	9	23	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Owen Desanto '23
Toms River South	Indians	2	6	16	24	Leo Krajewski '19 Jack Parks '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	14	8	6	28	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Caseys	Caseys	11	9	10	30
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	11	11	31	Michael Laguardia '21 Walter Mehl '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	15	15	5	35	Joseph Paccione '21 [1-2] Vincent Priolo '19 [3] Katie Shives '20 [1-2] Regina Vahey '18 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	12	12	12	36	Patrick Cashin '20 Bradford Iturralde '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	10	14	13	37	Zachary York '20 [1-2] Patrick York '20 [3] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	13	13	14	40	Quinn Harrington '19 Edward Gittines '21
Ranney School	Panthers 2	16	16	15	47	Hubert Wang '21 Tom Chen '20
Toms River East	Raiders	17	17	17	51	Loring Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	57

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4	10	10	10
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 1	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 2	7	7	7
Caseys Caseys	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	13	13	13
Toms River East Raiders	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15
Toms River South Indians	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4	10	10	10
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 1	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 2	7	7	7
Caseys Caseys	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	13	13	13
Toms River East Raiders	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15
Toms River South Indians	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Dino Nicastro '20	Danielle Petry '20
Eagles	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Owen Desanto '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	Justin Modin '19
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	Rodney Wotton '20
Colts 2	Michael Laguardia '21	Walter Mehl '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Jack Harrington '18	John Cocozza '20
Colts 3	Quinn Harrington '19	Edward Gittines '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Luke Caponegro '18 [3]	Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Colts 4	Patrick Cashin '20	Bradford Iturralde '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins 1	Joseph Paccione '21 [1-2] Vincent Priolo '19 [3]	Katie Shives '20 [1-2] Regina Vahey '18 [3]
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-3]	Anson He '20 [1-2] William Beyer '20 [3]
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	Catherine Vucetic '19
Panthers 2	Hubert Wang '21	Tom Chen '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Oliva Pasquale '19
Bulldogs	Patrick Modin '19	No Show
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18	Nate Ertle '20
Rams 1	Bridget Green '21	No Show
Southern Regional High School	Tom Green '19	Joe Mrazek '20
Rams 2	Brielle Willoughby '20	No Show
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19 [1-3]	Patrick York '20 [1-2] Zachary York '20 [3]
Hermits	Zachary York '20 [1-2] Patrick York '20 [3]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3]
Toms River East	Loring Dunton '18	Evan Czenis '20
Raiders	Loring Dunton '18	Evan Czenis '20
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19	Jack Parks '21
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-3]	Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3]
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3]	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [1-2] Whitney Butterfield '20 [3]

Conditions — 11/01/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1026.0 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.4 kn

avg · max 9.0 kn

Gusts to 18.1 kn

From ESE (118°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1026.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Toms River South: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.03

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River South by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Toms River South, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu