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NJISA Wed Fall Series #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 12 10 22
2 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 12 16 28
3 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 8 25 33
4 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 17 16 33
5 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 13 22 35
6 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 26 9 35
7 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 20 22 42
8 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 29 16 45
9 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 25 25 50
10 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 43 16 59
11 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 24 37 61
12 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 28 34 62
13 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 27 49 76
14 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 47 29 76
15 Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 33 45 78
16 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 49 41 90
17 Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars 47 53 100
18 Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 53 48 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 1 6 8 Michael Ehnot '18
Joseph David '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 2 8 2 12 Luke Arnone '19
Blake Epstein '19
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 7 4 1 12 Colleen O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 3 3 7 13 Dana Haig '18 [1-3]
Tom Green '19 [1-2]
Alex Klinov '22 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 5 9 3 17 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 10 6 4 20 Eddie Harrison '18
Evan Harrison '21
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 6 10 8 24 Zach Higham '19 [1-3]
Jack Parks '21 [1-2]
Paige Zelenak '19 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 13 7 5 25 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-3]
Taylor Rice '19 [1-2]
Oliva Pasquale '19 [3]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 9 5 12 26 Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-3]
Bridget Green '21 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 11 2 14 27 Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-3]
Catherine Vucetic '19 [1-2]
Hubert Wang '21 [3]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 4 13 11 28 Michael Pinto '19 [1-3]
Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chase Davis '20 [3]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 8 11 10 29 Lauren Ehnot '20
Sarah Maes '20
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 12 12 9 33 Brendan Gilman '18
Caroline Fortier '19
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 14 14 15 43 Reilly Fitzgerald '18
Owen Desanto '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 16 15 16 47 Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2]
Patrick Cashin '20 [3]
Walter Mehl '21 [1-2]
Edward Gittines '21 [3]
Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars 18 16 13 47
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 15 17 17 49 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-3]
Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Samuel Dempsey '19 [3]
Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 17 18 18 53 Loring Dunton '18
Evan Czenis '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 4 2 3 9 Bridget Green '21
No Show
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 1 8 1 10 Cameron Giblin '19
William Beyer '20
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 2 6 8 16 Peter Taboada '20
Dino Nicastro '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 3 1 12 16 Michaela O'Brien '20
Claire Haynes '19
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 6 3 7 16 Lauren Ehnot '20
Sarah Maes '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 9 5 2 16 Vincent Priolo '19
Regina Vahey '18
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 5 4 13 22 Declan Botwinick '21
Devyn Walkowicz '21
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 10 7 5 22 Tom Green '19
Joe Mrazek '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 8 11 6 25 Patrick Modin '19 [1-3]
Danny Raphael '19 [1-2]
Amelia Buch '20 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 11 10 4 25 Jack Harrington '18
Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 7 13 9 29 Ryan Mullins '19
John Cocozza '20
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 15 9 10 34 Chris Medolla '20 [1]
Zachary York '20 [2-3]
Zachary York '20 [1]
Patrick York '20 [2-3]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 14 12 11 37 Alexa Carles '19 [1-2]
Leo Krajewski '19 [3]
Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2]
Alexa Carles '19 [3]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 12 14 15 41 Thomas Marino '21 [1-3]
Ryan Mayes '19 [1-2]
Samuel Dempsey '19 [3]
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 13 15 17 45 Brendan Gilman '18
Caroline Fortier '19
Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 18 16 14 48 Luke Dunton '18
Loring Dunton '18
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 16 17 16 49 Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2]
Toby Savage '17 [3]
Anson He '20 [1-2]
Tom Chen '20 [3]
Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars 17 18 18 53
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars555
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2888
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins333
JaguarsJaguars Jaguars111
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 1181818
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 2171717
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys161616
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1151515
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2141414
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2121212
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits111111
Toms River EastToms River East Raiders101010
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners999
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians222
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs777

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars555
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2888
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins333
JaguarsJaguars Jaguars111
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 1181818
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 2171717
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys161616
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1151515
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2141414
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2121212
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits111111
Toms River EastToms River East Raiders101010
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners999
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians222
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs777
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Owen Desanto '23
Eagles Peter Taboada '20 Dino Nicastro '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Luke Duplessis '20 [1-3] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Samuel Dempsey '19 [3]
Cougars Thomas Marino '21 [1-3] Ryan Mayes '19 [1-2]
Samuel Dempsey '19 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Michael Ehnot '18 Joseph David '20
Colts 1 Jack Harrington '18 Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2]
Patrick Cashin '20 [3]		 Walter Mehl '21 [1-2]
Edward Gittines '21 [3]
Colts 2 Ryan Mullins '19 John Cocozza '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Griffins Vincent Priolo '19 Regina Vahey '18
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-3] Catherine Vucetic '19 [1-2]
Hubert Wang '21 [3]
Panthers 1 Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2]
Toby Savage '17 [3]		 Anson He '20 [1-2]
Tom Chen '20 [3]
Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 2 Cameron Giblin '19 William Beyer '20
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Fortier '19
Caseys Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Fortier '19
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1 Michaela O'Brien '20 Claire Haynes '19
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-3] Taylor Rice '19 [1-2]
Oliva Pasquale '19 [3]
Bulldogs 2 Patrick Modin '19 [1-3] Danny Raphael '19 [1-2]
Amelia Buch '20 [3]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Dana Haig '18 [1-3] Tom Green '19 [1-2]
Alex Klinov '22 [3]
Rams 1 Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-3] Bridget Green '21 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Rams 2 Bridget Green '21 No Show
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Michael Pinto '19 [1-3] Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chase Davis '20 [3]
Hermits Chris Medolla '20 [1]
Zachary York '20 [2-3]		 Zachary York '20 [1]
Patrick York '20 [2-3]
Toms River East Toms River East Loring Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20
Raiders Luke Dunton '18 Loring Dunton '18
Toms River North Toms River North Eddie Harrison '18 Evan Harrison '21
Mariners Declan Botwinick '21 Devyn Walkowicz '21
Toms River South Toms River South Zach Higham '19 [1-3] Jack Parks '21 [1-2]
Paige Zelenak '19 [3]
Indians Alexa Carles '19 [1-2]
Leo Krajewski '19 [3]		 Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2]
Alexa Carles '19 [3]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Lauren Ehnot '20 Sarah Maes '20
Monarchs Lauren Ehnot '20 Sarah Maes '20

Conditions — 10/11/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →