NJISA Fall Wed Final

HostTRYC & OCc
Date11/02/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	5	6	11
2	Toms River South	Indians 2	9	6	15
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams	8	9	17
4	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	7	18	25
5	Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	6	22	28
6	Toms River North	Mariners	24	5	29
7	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	20	13	33
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	20	16	36
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	25	11	36
10	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	14	25	39
11	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	24	15	39
12	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	25	15	40
13	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	17	24	41
14	Toms River South	Indians 1	13	29	42
15	Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	23	26	49
16	Ranney School	Panthers	33	32	65
17	Toms River East	Raiders	33	34	67

School	Team	R1	R2	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	1	5	Joe Laforgia '17 John Cocozza '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	2	4	6	Macmoyle John '17 Werner Tim '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	5	2	7	Chris Magno '17 Justin Modin '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	5	8	Emily Haig '17 Tom Green '19
Toms River South	Indians 2	6	3	9	Willow Wahlers '17 Paige Zelenak '19
Toms River South	Indians 1	1	12	13	Zach Higham '19 Alexa Carles '19
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	7	7	14	No Show No Show
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	8	9	17	Margaret Maccormack '17 Camryn Kennedy '17
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	12	8	20	Michaela Obrien '20 Michael Meehan '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	14	6	20	Jack Harrington '18 Rodney Wotton '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	10	13	23	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Fifield Scott '16
Toms River North	Mariners	9	15	24	James Koerner '17 Mia Porter '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	13	11	24	Cole Banias '17 Vincent Priolo '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	11	14	25	Lauren Ehnot '20 Claire Darman '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	15	10	25	Dane Brazinski '17 Quinn Harrington '19
Toms River East	Raiders	16	17	33	Luke Dunton '18 Loring Dunton '18
Ranney School	Panthers	17	16	33	Mari Patient '17 Matthew Hamelsky '19

School	Team	R1	R2	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	1	4	5	Eddie Harrison '18 Everett Botwinick '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	3	3	6	Michael Ehnot '18 Ryan Mullins '19
Toms River South	Indians 2	4	2	6	Lauren Zelenak '17 Leo Krajewski '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	8	1	9	Tom Green '19 Emily Micciche '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	5	6	11	Robert Maes '17 Luke Caponegro '18
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	6	7	13	Colleen Obrien '20 Michael Meehan '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	7	8	15	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 Alex Chrystal '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	10	5	15	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	2	14	16	Duncan Hathaway '20 Matthew Bell '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	9	18	Garret Boyan '17 Brady Niebling '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	11	11	22	Taboada Peter '20 Nicastro Dino '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	12	12	24	Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	15	10	25	No Show No Show
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	13	13	26	Murphey Erin '20 Maxwell Bonanno '19
Toms River South	Indians 1	14	15	29	Joey Cashman '18 Tabitha Paul '19
Ranney School	Panthers	16	16	32	Kelsey Stout '19 [1-2] Catherine Vucetic '19 [1] Julia Wolf '19 [2]
Toms River East	Raiders	17	17	34	Renee Ciufia '17 Elizabeth Burns '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	8	8
Ranney School Panthers	9	9
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	16	16
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	17	17
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10
Toms River East Raiders	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	12	12
Toms River South Indians 1	13	13
Toms River South Indians 2	14	14
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15

Division B

Team	1B	2B
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	8	8
Ranney School Panthers	9	9
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	16	16
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	17	17
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10
Toms River East Raiders	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	12	12
Toms River South Indians 1	13	13
Toms River South Indians 2	14	14
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Macmoyle John '17	Werner Tim '20
Eagles 1	Taboada Peter '20	Nicastro Dino '20
Central Regional High School	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Fifield Scott '16
Eagles 2	Murphey Erin '20	Maxwell Bonanno '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	John Cocozza '20
Colts 1	Michael Ehnot '18	Ryan Mullins '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Chris Magno '17	Justin Modin '19
Colts 2	Garret Boyan '17	Brady Niebling '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Dane Brazinski '17	Quinn Harrington '19
Colts 3	Robert Maes '17	Luke Caponegro '18
Christian Brothers Academy	Jack Harrington '18	Rodney Wotton '20
Colts 4	Duncan Hathaway '20	Matthew Bell '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	Camryn Kennedy '17
Griffins 1	Erin Mcgarry '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Donovan Catholic High School	Cole Banias '17	Vincent Priolo '19
Griffins 2	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Ranney School	Mari Patient '17	Matthew Hamelsky '19
Panthers	Kelsey Stout '19 [1-2]	Catherine Vucetic '19 [1] Julia Wolf '19 [2]
Red Bank Catholic High School	No Show	No Show
Caseys	No Show	No Show
Red Bank Regional High School	Michaela Obrien '20	Michael Meehan '22
Bucs	Colleen Obrien '20	Michael Meehan '22
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Tom Green '19
Rams	Tom Green '19	Emily Micciche '17
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Loring Dunton '18
Raiders	Renee Ciufia '17	Elizabeth Burns '20
Toms River North	James Koerner '17	Mia Porter '18
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Everett Botwinick '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Alexa Carles '19
Indians 1	Joey Cashman '18	Tabitha Paul '19
Toms River South	Willow Wahlers '17	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians 2	Lauren Zelenak '17	Leo Krajewski '19
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Claire Darman '19
Monarchs	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18	Alex Chrystal '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Fall Wed Final

Division A

Division B

From the notes