| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 13–0 |
| 2 |  |
Southern Regional High School | Rams | 9–4 |
| 3 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 6–7 |
| 4 |  |
Trinity Hall | Monarchs | 4–9 |
| 5 |  |
Summit High School | Hilltoppers | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 2–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,886 team race matches sailed before 2017-10-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 26 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.405 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.44: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ranney School | 6.45 | 9.45 | 11–0 | 8.6 | ≥+3.00 | 3.7 | 6% |
| 3 | Christian Brothers Academy | 4.24 | 4.36 | 4–7 | 3.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 | Trinity Hall | 3.92 | 3.82 | 3–8 | 3.2 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2 | Southern Regional High School | 6.22 | 5.48 | 7–4 | 8.1 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 5 | Summit High School | 3.75 | 2.27 | 1–7 | 2.3 | −1.49 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailin Burns-Cohen | Trinity Hall | 0.66 | 0.56 | 3–8 | 3.2 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Tom Green | Southern Regional High School | 2.05 | 1.31 | 7–4 | 8.1 | −0.74 | 0.5 | 89% |
| Mack Totman | Summit High School | 0.76 | -0.73 | 1–7 | 2.3 | −1.49 | 1.0 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Colts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Colts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Colts | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Panthers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colts | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Panthers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 19 | |
Hilltoppers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 21 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Hilltoppers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 23 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 26 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Colts | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 30 | |
Colts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hilltoppers | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colts | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Colts | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Brooke Schmelz '21 Cameron Giblin '19 Luke Arnone '19 |
Catherine Vucetic '19 Tom Chen '20 Matthew Hamelsky '19 Anson He '20 William Beyer '20 Blake Epstein '19 Hubert Wang '21 |
|
Southern Regional High School | Rams | Brielle Willoughby '20 Dana Haig '18 Tom Green '19 |
Joe Mrazek '20 Nate Ertle '20 Bridget Green '21 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Jack Harrington '18 Michael Ehnot '18 Ryan Mullins '19 |
Justin Modin '19 John Cocozza '20 Joseph David '20 Quinn Harrington '19 |
|
Trinity Hall | Monarchs | Julia Laforgia '19 Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 Lauren Ehnot '20 |
Whitney Butterfield '20 Hope Maguire '19 Alex Chrystal '20 Sarah Maes '20 |
|
Summit High School | Hilltoppers | Mack Totman '19 Sean Groskoph '20 Thomas Quinn '18 |
Evan Hybl '19 Malcolm Harrison '19 Kelsey Kennedy '18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
