NJISA Wed Fleet Series 4

HostChristian Brothers
Date04/05/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	9	6	15
2	Ranney School	Panthers	8	14	22
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	15	15	30
4	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	27	7	34
5	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	24	14	38
6	Toms River South	Indians 1	24	16	40
7	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	19	24	43
8	Toms River South	Indians 2	20	27	47
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	27	20	47
10	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	16	35	51
11	Toms River North	Mariners	21	33	54
12	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	39	30	69
13	Toms River East	Raiders	28	42	70
14	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	41	34	75
15	Central Regional High School	Eagles	42	46	88

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	3	2	3	8	Luke Arnone '19 Mari Patient '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	7	1	9	Emily Haig '17 [1-3] Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	2	1	12	15	Joe Laforgia '17 John Cocozza '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	9	5	2	16	Brendan Gilman '18 Shayn Lynch '18
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	6	6	7	19	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Olivia Depasquale '19
Toms River South	Indians 2	4	8	8	20	Zach Higham '19 [1-3] Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Aiden Hjembo '20 [3]
Toms River North	Mariners	5	11	5	21	James Koerner '17 Everett Botwinick '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	8	10	6	24	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3] Claire Darman '19 [1-2] Isabelle Grimes '18 [3]
Toms River South	Indians 1	11	3	10	24	Willow Wahlers '17 Carol Nunn '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	7	9	11	27	Chris Magno '17 Justin Modin '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	10	4	13	27	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-2] Erin Mcgarry '17 [3] Nate Ciak '20 [1-2] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [3]
Toms River East	Raiders	12	12	4	28	Luke Dunton '18 Loring Dunton '18
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	15	9	39	Zachary York '20 Chris Medolla '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	14	13	14	41	Robert Maes '17 Ryan Mullins '19
Central Regional High School	Eagles	13	14	15	42	Condos Aristotle '20 Petry Gordon '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	2	3	6	Dana Haig '18 [1-3] Tom Green '19 [1-2] Paul Reiff '17 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	2	1	4	7	Cole Banias '17 Regina Vahey '18
Ranney School	Panthers	3	6	5	14	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-3] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Blake Epstein '19 [3]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	6	7	1	14	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-3] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Claire Darman '19 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	5	8	2	15	Michael Ehnot '18 Rodney Wotton '20
Toms River South	Indians 1	4	3	9	16	Lauren Zelenak '17 Paige Zelenak '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	5	6	20	Jack Harrington '18 [1-2] Dane Brazinski '17 [3] Joseph David '20 [1-2]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	13	4	7	24	Patrick Modin '19 Joey Cooner '19
Toms River South	Indians 2	8	9	10	27	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Brock Wahlers '20 [3] Brock Wahlers '20 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	10	12	8	30	Patrick York '20 Luke Alley '20
Toms River North	Mariners	12	10	11	33	Eddie Harrison '18 No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	11	11	12	34	Luke Caponegro '18 Matthew Bell '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	7	14	14	35	Molly Meehan '19 Matthew Mc Connell '18
Toms River East	Raiders	DNF	13	13	42	Renee Ciufia '17 Elizabeth Burns '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	DNF	15	15	46	Caroline Fortier '19 Maxwell Bonanno '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers	6	6	6
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	7
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	9
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	10	10	10
Toms River East Raiders	11	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	12	12	12
Toms River South Indians 1	13	13	13
Toms River South Indians 2	14	14	14
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15	15

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers	6	6	6
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	7
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	9
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	10	10	10
Toms River East Raiders	11	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	12	12	12
Toms River South Indians 1	13	13	13
Toms River South Indians 2	14	14	14
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15	15

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Condos Aristotle '20	Petry Gordon '17
Eagles	Caroline Fortier '19	Maxwell Bonanno '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	John Cocozza '20
Colts 1	Michael Ehnot '18	Rodney Wotton '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Chris Magno '17	Justin Modin '19
Colts 2	Jack Harrington '18 [1-2] Dane Brazinski '17 [3]	Joseph David '20 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Robert Maes '17	Ryan Mullins '19
Colts 3	Luke Caponegro '18	Matthew Bell '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-2] Erin Mcgarry '17 [3]	Nate Ciak '20 [1-2] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [3]
Griffins	Cole Banias '17	Regina Vahey '18
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Mari Patient '17
Panthers	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-3]	Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Blake Epstein '19 [3]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Shayn Lynch '18
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Matthew Mc Connell '18
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Olivia Depasquale '19
Bulldogs	Patrick Modin '19	Joey Cooner '19
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-3]	Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3]
Rams	Dana Haig '18 [1-3]	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Paul Reiff '17 [3]
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20	Chris Medolla '20
Hermits	Patrick York '20	Luke Alley '20
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Loring Dunton '18
Raiders	Renee Ciufia '17	Elizabeth Burns '20
Toms River North	James Koerner '17	Everett Botwinick '22
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	No Show
Toms River South	Willow Wahlers '17	Carol Nunn '19
Indians 1	Lauren Zelenak '17	Paige Zelenak '19
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-3]	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Aiden Hjembo '20 [3]
Indians 2	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Brock Wahlers '20 [3]	Brock Wahlers '20 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3]
Trinity Hall	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3]	Claire Darman '19 [1-2] Isabelle Grimes '18 [3]
Monarchs	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-3]	Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Claire Darman '19 [3]

Conditions — 04/05/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1013.4 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 7.5 kn

Gusts to 20.0 kn

From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1013.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Christian Brothers: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.11

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.33 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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