NJISA 2018 Wed Series #3

HostOCC & TRYC
Date04/11/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	22	5	27
2	Ranney School	Panthers 1	6	24	30
3	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	28	43
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams	28	15	43
5	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	30	13	43
6	Toms River North	Mariners	32	25	57
7	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	27	31	58
8	Toms River South	Indians	40	21	61
9	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 1	16	56	72
10	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	42	31	73
11	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 2	39	40	79
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	45	42	87
13	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	40	59	99
14	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	50	53	103
15	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	60	57	117
16	Central Regional High School	Eagles	57	62	119
17	Ranney School	Panthers 2	66	59	125
18	Toms River East	Raiders	69	64	133

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	2	1	2	6	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	2	10	2	1	15	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 1	6	3	4	3	16	No Show No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	4	1	7	10	22	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	3	11	9	4	27	Jack Harrington '18 John Cocozza '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	9	5	3	11	28	Dana Haig '18 [1-3] Tom Green '19 [4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3] Dana Haig '18 [4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	12	8	5	5	30	Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Toms River North	Mariners	7	7	10	8	32	Eddie Harrison '18 [1-4] Connor Corbett '22 [1-2] Evan Harrison '21 [3-4]
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 2	15	12	6	6	39	No Show No Show
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	8	6	13	13	40	Taylor Warwick '20 Joseph Paccione '21
Toms River South	Indians	10	4	11	15	40	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	5	16	12	9	42	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Taylor Rice '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	13	17	8	7	45	Quinn Harrington '19 Rodney Wotton '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	11	13	14	12	50	Brendan Gilman '18 Caroline Fortier '19
Central Regional High School	Eagles	17	9	15	16	57	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Danielle Petry '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	16	14	16	14	60	Michael Laguardia '21 Bradford Iturralde '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	14	18	17	17	66	Hubert Wang '21 William Beyer '20
Toms River East	Raiders	18	15	18	18	69	Luke Dunton '18 Owen Desanto '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	2	1	1	1	5	Michaela O'Brien '20 Claire Haynes '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	3	3	3	4	13	Julia Laforgia '19 Isabelle Grimes '18
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	5	7	2	15	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4] Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
Toms River South	Indians	5	7	6	3	21	Leo Krajewski '19 Jack Parks '21
Ranney School	Panthers 1	7	6	5	6	24	Brooke Schmelz '21 Catherine Vucetic '19
Toms River North	Mariners	6	10	4	5	25	Declan Botwinick '21 [1-4] Evan Harrison '21 [1-2] Connor Corbett '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	9	4	8	7	28	Chris Medolla '20 [1] Zachary York '20 [2-4] Zachary York '20 [1] Chris Medolla '20 [2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	4	9	9	9	31	Patrick Modin '19 Chris Payne '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	11	8	2	10	31	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 2	8	2	11	DNF	40	No Show No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	12	12	10	8	42	Matthew Bell '20 Walter Mehl '21
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	10	13	14	16	53	Molly Meehan '19 Julia Lamberta '19
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates 1	15	14	15	12	56	No Show No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	13	17	16	11	57	Justin Modin '19 Aedan Moran '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	14	18	12	15	59	Matthew Hamelsky '19 John Cocozza '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	17	11	17	14	59	Alexander Plaskon '21 Gabriel Anama '21
Central Regional High School	Eagles	16	16	13	17	62	Aris Condos '20 Morgan Smith '21
Toms River East	Raiders	18	15	18	13	64	Loring Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	18	18	18	18
Ranney School Panthers 1	5	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 2	6	6	6	6
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	7	7
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	9	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	11	11	11	11
Toms River East Raiders	12	12	12	12
Toms River North Mariners	13	13	13	13
Toms River South Indians	14	14	14	14
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15	15	15
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1	16	16	16	16
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2	17	17	17	17

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	18	18	18	18
Ranney School Panthers 1	5	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 2	6	6	6	6
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	7	7
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	9	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	11	11	11	11
Toms River East Raiders	12	12	12	12
Toms River North Mariners	13	13	13	13
Toms River South Indians	14	14	14	14
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15	15	15
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1	16	16	16	16
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2	17	17	17	17

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Danielle Petry '20
Eagles	Aris Condos '20	Morgan Smith '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Jack Harrington '18	John Cocozza '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Quinn Harrington '19	Rodney Wotton '20
Colts 2	Matthew Bell '20	Walter Mehl '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Laguardia '21	Bradford Iturralde '20
Colts 3	Justin Modin '19	Aedan Moran '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Joseph Paccione '21
Griffins	Alexander Plaskon '21	Gabriel Anama '21
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1	Brooke Schmelz '21	Catherine Vucetic '19
Ranney School	Hubert Wang '21	William Beyer '20
Panthers 2	Matthew Hamelsky '19	John Cocozza '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Caroline Fortier '19
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Julia Lamberta '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Taylor Rice '19
Bulldogs 1	Patrick Modin '19	Chris Payne '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2	Michaela O'Brien '20	Claire Haynes '19
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18 [1-3] Tom Green '19 [4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3] Dana Haig '18 [4]
Rams	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4]	Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Chris Medolla '20 [1] Zachary York '20 [2-4]	Zachary York '20 [1] Chris Medolla '20 [2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Owen Desanto '23
Raiders	Loring Dunton '18	Evan Czenis '20
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18 [1-4]	Connor Corbett '22 [1-2] Evan Harrison '21 [3-4]
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21 [1-4]	Evan Harrison '21 [1-2] Connor Corbett '22 [3-4]
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19	Jack Parks '21
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Isabelle Grimes '18
Unregistered-MASSA	No Show	No Show
Pirates 1	No Show	No Show
Unregistered-MASSA	No Show	No Show
Pirates 2	No Show	No Show

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

NJISA 2018 Wed Series #3

Division A

Division B

From the notes