NJISA Wed Series #7

HostChristian Brothers
Date05/09/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	9	8	17
2	Ranney School	Panthers 1	15	12	27
3	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	17	17	34
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	15	22	37
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	14	30	44
6	Toms River North	Mariners	29	15	44
7	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	28	33	61
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	36	31	67
9	Toms River South	Indians	45	29	74
10	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	32	43	75
11	Caseys	Caseys	39	39	78
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	36	50	86
13	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	61	49	110
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	49	68	117
15	Toms River East	Raiders	65	56	121
16	Ranney School	Panthers 2	64	60	124
17	Eagles	Eagles	64	61	125
18	Pirates	Pirates	67	61	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	2	3	1	3	9	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Bridget Green '21 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	3	8	2	1	14	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	1	2	5	7	15	Dana Haig '18 [1-4] Tom Green '19 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 1	7	1	3	4	15	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	4	4	7	2	17	Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	9	5	9	5	28	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Toms River North	Mariners	6	9	8	6	29	Eddie Harrison '18 Evan Harrison '21
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	10	7	6	9	32	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	5	6	13	12	36	Jack Harrington '18 [1-2] Quinn Harrington '19 [3-4] Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	11	11	4	10	36	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-4] John Cocozza '20 [1-2]
Caseys	Caseys	8	10	10	11	39
Toms River South	Indians	12	13	12	8	45	Zach Higham '19 [1-4] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	13	12	11	13	49	Taylor Warwick '20 Joseph Paccione '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	16	15	15	15	61	Luke Caponegro '18 [1-2] Patrick Cashin '20 [3-4] Bradford Iturralde '20 [1-2]
Eagles	Eagles	15	16	16	17	64
Ranney School	Panthers 2	17	14	14	RAF	64	Hubert Wang '21 Catherine Vucetic '19
Toms River East	Raiders	14	17	18	16	65	Luke Dunton '18 Owen Desanto '23
Pirates	Pirates	18	18	17	14	67

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	1	5	1	1	8	Bridget Green '21 No Show
Ranney School	Panthers 1	3	1	5	3	12	Cameron Giblin '19 William Beyer '20
Toms River North	Mariners	5	4	4	2	15	Declan Botwinick '21 Kyle Braden '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	8	2	3	4	17	Julia Laforgia '19 Hope Maguire '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	2	6	2	12	22	Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
Toms River South	Indians	7	8	9	5	29	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-4] Trent Morrison '21 [1-2] Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	4	10	8	8	30	Patrick Modin '19 Joey Cooner '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	6	7	7	11	31	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	9	3	14	7	33	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-2] Ian Wurch '21 [3-4] Taylor Rice '19 [1-2] Chris Payne '20 [3-4]
Caseys	Caseys	10	9	10	10	39
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	11	13	6	13	43	Zachary York '20 [1-4] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	13	18	12	6	49	Justin Modin '19 [1-2] Michael Laguardia '21 [3-4] Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	14	11	11	14	50	Matthew Bell '20 Walter Mehl '21
Toms River East	Raiders	17	12	18	9	56	Loring Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	12	14	16	18	60	Matthew Hamelsky '19 John Cocozza '20
Eagles	Eagles	15	16	15	15	61
Pirates	Pirates	16	15	13	17	61
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	18	17	17	16	68	Alexander Plaskon '21 [1-2] Gabriel Anama '21 [3-4] Nate Ciak '20 [1-2]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Eagles Eagles	1	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 1	6	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 2	7	7	7	7
Caseys Caseys	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	10	10	10	10
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	12	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	13	13	13	13
Toms River East Raiders	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15	15
Toms River South Indians	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17
Pirates Pirates	18	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Eagles Eagles	1	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 1	6	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 2	7	7	7	7
Caseys Caseys	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	10	10	10	10
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	12	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	13	13	13	13
Toms River East Raiders	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15	15
Toms River South Indians	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17
Pirates Pirates	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christian Brothers Academy	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-4]	John Cocozza '20 [1-2]
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Jack Harrington '18 [1-2] Quinn Harrington '19 [3-4]	Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Colts 2	Matthew Bell '20	Walter Mehl '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Luke Caponegro '18 [1-2] Patrick Cashin '20 [3-4]	Bradford Iturralde '20 [1-2]
Colts 3	Justin Modin '19 [1-2] Michael Laguardia '21 [3-4]	Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Joseph Paccione '21
Griffins	Alexander Plaskon '21 [1-2] Gabriel Anama '21 [3-4]	Nate Ciak '20 [1-2]
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1	Cameron Giblin '19	William Beyer '20
Ranney School	Hubert Wang '21	Catherine Vucetic '19
Panthers 2	Matthew Hamelsky '19	John Cocozza '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-2] Ian Wurch '21 [3-4]	Taylor Rice '19 [1-2] Chris Payne '20 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Bulldogs 2	Patrick Modin '19	Joey Cooner '19
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18 [1-4]	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Rams 1	Tom Green '19	Joe Mrazek '20
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]	Bridget Green '21 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Rams 2	Bridget Green '21	No Show
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Zachary York '20 [1-4]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Owen Desanto '23
Raiders	Loring Dunton '18	Evan Czenis '20
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Kyle Braden '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-4]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Indians	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-4]	Trent Morrison '21 [1-2] Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Hope Maguire '19

Conditions — 05/09/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 52% · Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.2 kn

avg · max 6.0 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From E (84°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1020.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.12

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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