NJISA 2019 BBYRA High School Invitational

HostTRYC & BBYRA
Date09/21/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	10	7	17
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	13	20	33
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	35	17	52
4	Toms River North	Mariners	31	22	53
5	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	33	40	73
6	Ranney School	Panthers	26	51	77
7	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	43	50	93
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	46	47	93
9	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	51	48	99
10	Chatham High School	Cougars 1	68	53	121
11	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	55	77	132
12	Chatham High School	Cougars 2	85	54	139
13	Central Regional High School	Eagles	67	78	145
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	83	66	149
15	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	74	96	170

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	1	4	1	2	1	1	10	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	2	2	1	3	2	13	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-6] Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3] Nate Ertle '20 [4-6]
Ranney School	Panthers	5	3	3	7	5	3	26	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-6] Ashley Abboud '22 [1-4] Jack Whitman '23 [5-6]
Toms River North	Mariners	2	1	4	6	10	8	31	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	7	7	6	5	4	4	33	Zachary York '20 [1-6] Mason Medolla '22 [1-2, 5-6] Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	8	5	4	2	12	35	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	6	9	7	8	6	7	43	Sean Groskoph '20 Chris Disibio '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	11	5	9	3	9	9	46	Matthew Bell '20 Bryce Vitiello '23
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	8	6	10	9	7	11	51	Hannah Mercurio '20 Lilly Shanker '22
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	10	11	8	13	8	5	55	Mercedes Escandon '20 Angelina '22
Central Regional High School	Eagles	9	14	13	14	11	6	67	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jordan Macmoyle '20 [3-4] Owen Desanto '23 [1-2, 5-6] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars 1	12	10	12	11	13	10	68	Thomas Marino '21 Paige Lubrano '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	14	12	11	12	12	13	74	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Nora Ciak '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	15	15	14	10	15	14	83	Joe Paccione '21 Katie Shives '20
Chatham High School	Cougars 2	13	13	15	15	14	15	85	Carson Lubrano '20 [1-6] Milos Buchberger '21 [1-2, 5-6] Keira Press '23 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	2	1	1	1	1	1	7	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	4	2	5	3	2	17	Colin Guerrera '22 Connor Feury '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	5	4	3	2	3	20	Bridget Green '21 Joe Mrazek '20
Toms River North	Mariners	5	2	3	2	4	6	22	Everett Botwinick '22 Lindsay Walsh '23
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	6	3	9	7	6	9	40	Patrick York '20 [1-6] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2, 5-6] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	7	5	4	12	11	47	Noah Kuzloski '23 Andrew Chiles '23
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	9	6	6	6	9	12	48	Jack Quinn '20 [1-6] Jack Greengrass '22 [1-2] Michael Ahern '21 [3-6]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	7	10	10	8	8	7	50	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-6] Ben Sampson '20 [1-2] Luke Browne '20 [3-6]
Ranney School	Panthers	4	11	14	13	5	4	51	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-6] Grace Bray '23 [1-2, 5-6] Kieran Collins '25 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars 1	10	12	7	9	7	8	53	Luke Duplessis '20 Ryan Mcwalters '21
Chatham High School	Cougars 2	12	9	8	10	10	5	54	Ciara Doherty '21 [1-2] Jamie Lynch '23 [3-6] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	13	8	12	12	11	10	66	Nate Ciak '20 Hayden Warwick '23
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	14	13	11	11	14	14	77	Mcmanus Cameron '22 [1-6] Emerson Furgason '20 [1-4] Ryan Dailey '20 [5-6]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	14	13	14	13	13	78	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2, 5-6] Arianna Weber '21 [3-4] Danielle Petry '20 [1-2, 5-6] Mike Frankovich '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	96	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Nora Ciak '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars 1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Chatham High School Cougars 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	4	4	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	5	5	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	6	6	6	6	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	7	7	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers	8	8	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	9	9	9	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10	10	10
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	11	11	11	11	11	11
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	12	12	12	12	12	12
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	13	13	13	13	13	13
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	14	14	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15	15	15	15

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars 1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Chatham High School Cougars 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	4	4	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	5	5	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	6	6	6	6	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	7	7	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers	8	8	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	9	9	9	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10	10	10	10
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	11	11	11	11	11	11
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	12	12	12	12	12	12
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	13	13	13	13	13	13
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	14	14	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15	15	15	15

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jordan Macmoyle '20 [3-4]	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2, 5-6] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Eagles	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2, 5-6] Arianna Weber '21 [3-4]	Danielle Petry '20 [1-2, 5-6] Mike Frankovich '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Thomas Marino '21	Paige Lubrano '22
Cougars 1	Luke Duplessis '20	Ryan Mcwalters '21
Chatham High School	Carson Lubrano '20 [1-6]	Milos Buchberger '21 [1-2, 5-6] Keira Press '23 [3-4]
Cougars 2	Ciara Doherty '21 [1-2] Jamie Lynch '23 [3-6]	Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Colin Guerrera '22	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	Bryce Vitiello '23
Colts 2	Noah Kuzloski '23	Andrew Chiles '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Nora Ciak '23
Griffins 1	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Nora Ciak '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Joe Paccione '21	Katie Shives '20
Griffins 2	Nate Ciak '20	Hayden Warwick '23
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-6]	Ashley Abboud '22 [1-4] Jack Whitman '23 [5-6]
Panthers	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-6]	Grace Bray '23 [1-2, 5-6] Kieran Collins '25 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-6]	Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3] Nate Ertle '20 [4-6]
Rams	Bridget Green '21	Joe Mrazek '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20 [1-6]	Mason Medolla '22 [1-2, 5-6] Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
Hermits	Patrick York '20 [1-6]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2, 5-6] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20	Angelina '22
Purple Roses	Mcmanus Cameron '22 [1-6]	Emerson Furgason '20 [1-4] Ryan Dailey '20 [5-6]
Summit High School	Sean Groskoph '20	Chris Disibio '21
Hilltoppers 1	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-6]	Ben Sampson '20 [1-2] Luke Browne '20 [3-6]
Summit High School	Hannah Mercurio '20	Lilly Shanker '22
Hilltoppers 2	Jack Quinn '20 [1-6]	Jack Greengrass '22 [1-2] Michael Ahern '21 [3-6]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Lindsay Walsh '23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 BBYRA High School Invitational

Division A

Division B

From the notes