NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #9

HostRFH @ TRYC & OCC
Date05/15/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 1	10	8	18
2	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	16	20	36
3	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	25	15	40
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	25	22	47
5	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	18	32	50
6	Toms River North	Mariners	41	11	52
7	Toms River South	Indians	34	39	73
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	52	22	74
9	Ranney School	Panthers 2	39	36	75
10	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	28	48	76
11	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	40	39	79
12	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	39	46	85
13	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	38	55	93
14	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	42	52	94
15	Central Regional High School	Eagles	42	57	99
16	Chatham High School	Cougars	55	44	99

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	2	1	2	5	10	Cameron Giblin '19 Ashley Abboud '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	7	5	1	3	16	Ryan Ehnot '22 [1-4] Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2] Connor Feury '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	9	2	5	2	18	Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	4	14	6	1	25	Zachary York '20 [1-4] Mason Medolla '22 [1-2] Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	5	13	3	4	25	Brielle Willoughby '20 Alex Klinov '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	1	4	9	14	28	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Toms River South	Indians	16	3	8	7	34	Zach Higham '19 Trent Morrison '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	11	6	12	9	38	Patrick Modin '19 [1-4] Riley Plosica '19 [1] Harrison Quinn '20 [2-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 2	6	8	10	15	39	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4] Will Beyer '20 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	15	9	7	8	39	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	8	10	11	11	40	Patrick Cashin '20 Aedan Moran '20
Toms River North	Mariners	13	12	4	12	41	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Central Regional High School	Eagles	3	7	16	16	42	Joey Laplaca '20 Danielle Petry '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	10	11	15	6	42	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-2] Sophie Harrington '22 [3-4] Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2] Owen Geohegan '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	12	16	14	10	52	Matthew Bell '20 Hunter Oleynik '22
Chatham High School	Cougars	14	15	13	13	55	Thomas Marino '21 Amanda Williams '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	3	3	1	8	Luke Arnone '19 [1-4] Blake Epstein '19 [1-2] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-4]
Toms River North	Mariners	4	2	1	4	11	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	6	4	2	3	15	Michael Pinto '19 [1-4] Patrick York '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	2	5	4	9	20	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	3	7	6	6	22	Colin Guerrera '22 Walter Mehl '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	9	1	7	5	22	Bridget Green '21 Lyndsey Clark '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	10	12	8	2	32	Kennedy Laureigh '22 Nate Ertle '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	5	6	13	12	36	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2] Blake Epstein '19 [3-4] George Sima '20 [1-2] Will Beyer '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	7	8	9	15	39	Justin Modin '19 John Ruane '21
Toms River South	Indians	8	13	10	8	39	Garrett Johnston '22 Jack Parks '21
Chatham High School	Cougars	13	10	11	10	44	Luke Duplessis '20 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	DNF	DNS	5	7	46	Juliana Scheick '22 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4] Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	12	9	14	13	48	Sloane Nelson '22 Isabella Aguanno '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	11	15	12	14	52	Ian Wurch '21 Joey Cooner '19
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	15	14	15	11	55	Riley Plosica '19 Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21
Central Regional High School	Eagles	14	11	16	16	57	Owen Desanto '23 Alexander Cammarato '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	11	11	11	11
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	13	13	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	14	14	14	14
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	15	15	15	15
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	16	16	16	16
Ranney School Panthers 1	17	17	17	17
Ranney School Panthers 2	18	18	18	18
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	1	1	1	1
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	3	3	3	3
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	4	4	4	4
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	10	10	10	10
Toms River North Mariners	6	6	6	6
Toms River South Indians	7	7	7	7
Trinity Hall Monarchs	8	8	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	11	11	11	11
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	13	13	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	14	14	14	14
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	15	15	15	15
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	16	16	16	16
Ranney School Panthers 1	17	17	17	17
Ranney School Panthers 2	18	18	18	18
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	1	1	1	1
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	3	3	3	3
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	4	4	4	4
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	10	10	10	10
Toms River North Mariners	6	6	6	6
Toms River South Indians	7	7	7	7
Trinity Hall Monarchs	8	8	8	8

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20	Danielle Petry '20
Eagles	Owen Desanto '23	Alexander Cammarato '22
Chatham High School	Thomas Marino '21	Amanda Williams '21
Cougars	Luke Duplessis '20	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22 [1-4]	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2] Connor Feury '22 [3-4]
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	Hunter Oleynik '22
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22	Walter Mehl '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	Aedan Moran '20
Colts 3	Justin Modin '19	John Ruane '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Sloane Nelson '22	Isabella Aguanno '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19 [1-4]	Riley Plosica '19 [1] Harrison Quinn '20 [2-4]
Rangers	Riley Plosica '19	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers 1	Luke Arnone '19 [1-4]	Blake Epstein '19 [1-2] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-4]
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4]	Will Beyer '20 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Panthers 2	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2] Blake Epstein '19 [3-4]	George Sima '20 [1-2] Will Beyer '20 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-2] Sophie Harrington '22 [3-4]	Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2] Owen Geohegan '22 [3-4]
Bulldogs	Ian Wurch '21	Joey Cooner '19
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20	Alex Klinov '22
Rams 1	Bridget Green '21	Lyndsey Clark '21
Southern Regional High School	Tom Green '19	Joe Mrazek '20
Rams 2	Kennedy Laureigh '22	Nate Ertle '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20 [1-4]	Mason Medolla '22 [1-2] Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Hermits	Michael Pinto '19 [1-4]	Patrick York '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Toms River North	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Trent Morrison '22
Indians	Garrett Johnston '22	Jack Parks '21
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22
Monarchs	Juliana Scheick '22 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #9

Division A

Division B

From the notes