NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #8

HostDonovan Catholic @ TRYC & OCC
Date05/08/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 1	12	9	21
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	22	18	40
3	Toms River North	Mariners	23	21	44
4	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	30	25	55
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	23	40	63
6	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	41	31	72
7	Toms River South	Indians	48	28	76
8	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	43	44	87
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	56	40	96
10	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	39	60	99
11	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	49	56	105
12	Ranney School	Panthers 2	65	46	111
13	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	42	72	114
14	Chatham High School	Cougars	61	53	114
15	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	63	62	125
16	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	62	83	145
17	Central Regional High School	Eagles	81	79	160
18	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	95	95	190

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	4	3	2	2	12	Luke Arnone '19 [1-5] Will Beyer '20 [1-2] Ashley Abboud '22 [3-5]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	1	11	3	4	22	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-5] Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Lyndsey Clark '21 [3-5]
Toms River North	Mariners	6	2	1	5	9	23	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	8	3	2	9	1	23	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	9	7	7	3	30	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	7	8	4	1	DNS	39	Michaela O'Brien '20 No Show
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	9	5	9	11	7	41	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	2	15	5	12	8	42	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	13	7	14	4	5	43	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Toms River South	Indians	10	14	10	8	6	48	Zach Higham '19 [1-5] Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Trent Morrison '22 [3-4] Garrett Johnston '22 [5]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	11	6	12	BKD	10	49	Patrick Cashin '20 Walter Mehl '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	14	12	6	13	11	56	Matthew Bell '20 John Ruane '21
Chatham High School	Cougars	15	11	8	14	13	61	Luke Duplessis '20 Ryan Mcwalters '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	12	10	13	15	12	62	Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	5	17	16	10	15	63	Michael Meehan '22 Sara Senkeleski '21
Ranney School	Panthers 2	17	13	15	6	14	65	George Sima '20 John Cocozza '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	16	16	17	16	16	81	Aris Condos '20 [1-2] Morgan Smith '21 [3-5] Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Nick Di Corcia '22 [3-4] Griffin Petry '22 [5]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	95	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	3	3	1	1	1	9	Brooke Schmelz '21 Matthew Hamelsky '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	4	2	2	8	2	18	Bridget Green '21 [1-5] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-5]
Toms River North	Mariners	2	4	6	6	3	21	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	6	10	3	5	25	Ryan Mullins '19 Connor Feury '22
Toms River South	Indians	5	1	11	2	9	28	Garrett Johnston '22 [1-5] Trent Morrison '22 [1-2] Zach Higham '19 [3-5]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	6	5	4	10	6	31	Zachary York '20 [1-5] Mason Medolla '22 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-5]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	7	9	8	12	4	40	Sophie Harrington '22 Owen Geohegan '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	13	7	3	7	10	40	Colin Guerrera '22 Aedan Moran '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	8	10	7	4	15	44	Sloane Nelson '22 Isabella Aguanno '22
Ranney School	Panthers 2	12	13	9	5	7	46	Alexa Whitman '22 Alexandria Forrest '22
Chatham High School	Cougars	11	12	13	9	8	53	Thomas Marino '21 Amanda Williams '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	10	8	14	11	13	56	Justin Modin '19 Hunter Oleynik '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	9	11	12	14	14	60	Ian Wurch '21 No Show
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	14	15	5	16	12	62	Kieran Nevins '20 Jack Shutzenhofer '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	OCS	14	15	13	11	72	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-5] Hope Maguire '19 [1-2] Juliana Scheick '22 [3-5]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	15	16	17	15	16	79	Owen Desanto '23 [1-5] Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-5]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	16	17	16	17	17	83	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 Dillon Mccann '21
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	95	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	6	6	6
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	7	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 1	8	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 2	18	18	18	18	18
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	9	9	9
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	10	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	11	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	12	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	13	13	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15	15	15
Toms River South Indians	16	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17	17

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	6	6	6
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	7	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 1	8	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 2	18	18	18	18	18
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	9	9	9
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	10	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	11	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	12	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	13	13	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15	15	15
Toms River South Indians	16	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17	17

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Aris Condos '20 [1-2] Morgan Smith '21 [3-5]	Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Nick Di Corcia '22 [3-4] Griffin Petry '22 [5]
Eagles	Owen Desanto '23 [1-5]	Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-5]
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20	Ryan Mcwalters '21
Cougars	Thomas Marino '21	Amanda Williams '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	John Ruane '21
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22	Aedan Moran '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	Walter Mehl '21
Colts 3	Justin Modin '19	Hunter Oleynik '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Sloane Nelson '22	Isabella Aguanno '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Harrison Quinn '20
Rangers	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21	Dillon Mccann '21
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19 [1-5]	Will Beyer '20 [1-2] Ashley Abboud '22 [3-5]
Panthers 1	Brooke Schmelz '21	Matthew Hamelsky '19
Ranney School	George Sima '20	John Cocozza '20
Panthers 2	Alexa Whitman '22	Alexandria Forrest '22
Red Bank Catholic High School	No Show	No Show
Caseys	No Show	No Show
Red Bank Regional High School	Michael Meehan '22	Sara Senkeleski '21
Bucs	Kieran Nevins '20	Jack Shutzenhofer '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1	Sophie Harrington '22	Owen Geohegan '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michaela O'Brien '20	No Show
Bulldogs 2	Ian Wurch '21	No Show
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-5]	Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Lyndsey Clark '21 [3-5]
Rams	Bridget Green '21 [1-5]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-5]
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Zachary York '20 [1-5]	Mason Medolla '22 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-5]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-5]	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Trent Morrison '22 [3-4] Garrett Johnston '22 [5]
Indians	Garrett Johnston '22 [1-5]	Trent Morrison '22 [1-2] Zach Higham '19 [3-5]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22
Monarchs	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-5]	Hope Maguire '19 [1-2] Juliana Scheick '22 [3-5]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #8

Division A

Division B

From the notes