NJISA Wed Series Five

HostSailorcise
Date10/10/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	12	8	20
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	12	16	28
3	Ranney School	Panthers 1	19	9	28
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	13	19	32
5	Toms River North	Mariners	21	24	45
6	Toms River South	Indians	30	39	69
7	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	47	22	69
8	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	33	39	72
9	Ranney School	Panthers 2	26	48	74
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	50	30	80
11	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	44	37	81
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	38	43	81
13	Moorestown High School	Moorestown Sailing	48	52	100
14	Caseys	Caseys	51	56	107
15	Henry Hudson Regional School	Admirals	53	61	114
16	Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	57	59	116
17	Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	71	54	125
18	Purple Roses	Purple Roses	59	68	127

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	1	3	6	12	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	4	4	1	3	12	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	3	7	2	1	13	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Olivia Pasquale '19
Ranney School	Panthers 1	8	3	6	2	19	Cameron Giblin '19 Will Beyer '20
Toms River North	Mariners	6	2	8	5	21	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Ranney School	Panthers 2	1	16	5	4	26	Brooke Schmelz '21 John Cocozza '20
Toms River South	Indians	7	6	9	8	30	Zach Higham '19 [1-4] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Sonja Krajewski '22 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	5	9	4	15	33	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	13	5	7	13	38	Matthew Bell '20 [1-4] John Ruane '21 [1-2] Rodney Wotton '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	10	17	10	7	44	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	15	12	11	9	47	Ryan Mullins '19 Walter Mehl '21
Moorestown High School	Moorestown Sailing	11	13	12	12	48	Bobby Whitley '19 [1-4] Nick Georgiades '19 [1-2] Ava Kratz '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	8	16	17	50	Quinn Harrington '19 [1-2] Patrick Cashin '20 [3-4] Connor Feury '22 [1-2] Bradford Iturralde '20 [3-4]
Caseys	Caseys	16	11	13	11	51
Henry Hudson Regional School	Admirals	12	10	17	14	53	Benson Chiles '22 [1-4] Tobin Mytnick '22 [1-2] Jake Zydel '22 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	18	14	15	10	57	Arianna Weber '21 [1-4] Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Danielle Petry '20 [3-4]
Purple Roses	Purple Roses	14	15	14	16	59
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	17	18	18	18	71	Annabel Bornebusch '22 [1-4] Nick Di Corcia '22 [1-2] Maxwell Bonanno '19 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	3	3	1	1	8	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	4	2	2	9	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	1	5	5	16	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	4	9	3	3	19	Danny Raphael '19 Owen Geohegan '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	9	5	4	4	22	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Toms River North	Mariners	8	2	8	6	24	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	7	10	6	7	30	Colin Guerrera '22 [1-4] Justin Modin '19 [1-2] Aedan Moran '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	6	8	13	10	37	Luke Barlet '20 Gabriel Anama '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	2	7	16	14	39	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4] Hope Maguire '19 [1-2]
Toms River South	Indians	11	6	14	8	39	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3-4] Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [1-2] Garrett Johnston '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	12	12	7	12	43	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-4] Hunter Oleynik '22 [1-2] Jack Frankovic '22 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 2	13	17	9	9	48	Matthew Hamelsky '19 Catherine Vucetic '19
Moorestown High School	Moorestown Sailing	16	14	11	11	52	Sebastien Lemaire '21 [1-4] Ava Kratz '20 [1-2] Nick Georgiades '19 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	10	16	10	18	54	Aris Condos '20 [1-4] Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Caseys	Caseys	14	13	12	17	56
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	15	11	17	16	59	Erin Murphy '20 [1-4] Alexis Lugo '22 [1-2] Chloe Bonannno '22 [3-4]
Henry Hudson Regional School	Admirals	18	15	15	13	61	Conor Greene '22 [1-4] Jack Crowley '22 [1-2] Gavin Sapio '22 [3-4]
Purple Roses	Purple Roses	17	18	18	15	68

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	6	6
Henry Hudson Regional School Admirals	7	7	7	7
Moorestown High School Moorestown Sailing	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 1	9	9	9	9
Ranney School Panthers 2	10	10	10	10
Caseys Caseys	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	12	12	12	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	13	13	13	13
Southern Regional High School Rams	14	14	14	14
Purple Roses Purple Roses	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	6	6
Henry Hudson Regional School Admirals	7	7	7	7
Moorestown High School Moorestown Sailing	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 1	9	9	9	9
Ranney School Panthers 2	10	10	10	10
Caseys Caseys	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	12	12	12	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	13	13	13	13
Southern Regional High School Rams	14	14	14	14
Purple Roses Purple Roses	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Annabel Bornebusch '22 [1-4]	Nick Di Corcia '22 [1-2] Maxwell Bonanno '19 [3-4]
Eagles 1	Aris Condos '20 [1-4]	Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Arianna Weber '21 [1-4]	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Danielle Petry '20 [3-4]
Eagles 2	Erin Murphy '20 [1-4]	Alexis Lugo '22 [1-2] Chloe Bonannno '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Mullins '19	Walter Mehl '21
Colts 1	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Quinn Harrington '19 [1-2] Patrick Cashin '20 [3-4]	Connor Feury '22 [1-2] Bradford Iturralde '20 [3-4]
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22 [1-4]	Justin Modin '19 [1-2] Aedan Moran '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20 [1-4]	John Ruane '21 [1-2] Rodney Wotton '20 [3-4]
Colts 3	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-4]	Hunter Oleynik '22 [1-2] Jack Frankovic '22 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Luke Barlet '20	Gabriel Anama '21
Henry Hudson Regional School	Benson Chiles '22 [1-4]	Tobin Mytnick '22 [1-2] Jake Zydel '22 [3-4]
Admirals	Conor Greene '22 [1-4]	Jack Crowley '22 [1-2] Gavin Sapio '22 [3-4]
Moorestown High School	Bobby Whitley '19 [1-4]	Nick Georgiades '19 [1-2] Ava Kratz '20 [3-4]
Moorestown Sailing	Sebastien Lemaire '21 [1-4]	Ava Kratz '20 [1-2] Nick Georgiades '19 [3-4]
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	Will Beyer '20
Panthers 1	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	John Cocozza '20
Panthers 2	Matthew Hamelsky '19	Catherine Vucetic '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Olivia Pasquale '19
Bulldogs 1	Danny Raphael '19	Owen Geohegan '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]	Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-4]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Sonja Krajewski '22 [3-4]
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3-4]	Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [1-2] Garrett Johnston '22 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]	Hope Maguire '19 [1-2]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

NJISA Wed Series Five

Division A

Division B

From the notes