NJISA Spring 2019 Wed Series #1

HostDonovan @ TRYC & OCC
Date03/13/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 1	3	3	6
2	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	16	11	27
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams	14	14	28
4	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	21	16	37
5	Toms River North	Mariners	20	19	39
6	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	12	28	40
7	Toms River South	Indians	36	12	48
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	17	33	50
9	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	20	30	50
10	Ranney School	Panthers 2	18	35	53
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles	43	17	60
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	35	28	63
13	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	36	29	65
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	31	45	76
15	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	40	40	80
16	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	51	51	102

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	1	1	3	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	5	2	5	12	Lauren Ehnot '20 Sydney Gusmer '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams	6	5	3	14	Brielle Willoughby '20 Nate Ertle '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	11	3	2	16	Colleen O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	3	4	10	17	Ryan Ehnot '22 Justin Modin '19
Ranney School	Panthers 2	2	7	9	18	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-3] George Sima '20 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	4	10	6	20	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Toms River North	Mariners	8	8	4	20	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	7	6	8	21	Quinn Harrington '19 Connor Feury '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	12	12	7	31	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	10	13	12	35	Patrick Cashin '20 John Ruane '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	9	14	13	36	Patrick Modin '19 Mason Medolla '22
Toms River South	Indians	14	11	11	36	Zach Higham '19 [1-3] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Trent Morrison '22 [3]
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	DNS	9	14	40	Mercedes Escandon '20 No Show
Central Regional High School	Eagles	13	15	15	43	Joey Laplaca '20 Owen Desanto '23
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	51	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	1	1	3	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-3] Will Beyer '20 [1-2] Ashley Abboud '22 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	2	2	7	11	Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2] Ian Wurch '21 [3] Amelia Buch '20 [1-2] Joey Cooner '19 [3]
Toms River South	Indians	4	5	3	12	Leo Krajewski '19 Jack Parks '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	4	5	14	Bridget Green '21 [1-3] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	3	9	4	16	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	6	3	8	17	Aris Condos '20 Danielle Petry '20
Toms River North	Mariners	9	8	2	19	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	7	12	9	28	Matthew Bell '20 Walter Mehl '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	8	6	14	28	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3] Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Juliana Scheick '22 [3]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	11	7	11	29	Harrison Quinn '20 Riley Plosica '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	13	11	6	30	Zachary York '20 [1-3] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	10	13	10	33	Colin Guerrera '22 Aedan Moran '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	12	10	13	35	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-3] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Will Beyer '20 [3]
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	14	14	12	40	No Show No Show
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	15	15	15	45	Luke Barlet '20 Sloane Nelson '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	51	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 1	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 2	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	10	10	10
Southern Regional High School Rams	11	11	11
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	12	12	12
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	13	13	13
Toms River North Mariners	14	14	14
Toms River South Indians	15	15	15
Trinity Hall Monarchs	16	16	16

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 1	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 2	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	10	10	10
Southern Regional High School Rams	11	11	11
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	12	12	12
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	13	13	13
Toms River North Mariners	14	14	14
Toms River South Indians	15	15	15
Trinity Hall Monarchs	16	16	16

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20	Owen Desanto '23
Eagles	Aris Condos '20	Danielle Petry '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Justin Modin '19
Colts 1	Colin Guerrera '22	Aedan Moran '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Quinn Harrington '19	Connor Feury '22
Colts 2	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	John Ruane '21
Colts 3	Matthew Bell '20	Walter Mehl '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Luke Barlet '20	Sloane Nelson '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Mason Medolla '22
Varsity	Harrison Quinn '20	Riley Plosica '19
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-3]	Will Beyer '20 [1-2] Ashley Abboud '22 [3]
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-3]	George Sima '20 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3]
Panthers 2	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-3]	Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Will Beyer '20 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Bulldogs 1	Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2] Ian Wurch '21 [3]	Amelia Buch '20 [1-2] Joey Cooner '19 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	No Show	No Show
Bulldogs 2	No Show	No Show
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20	Nate Ertle '20
Rams	Bridget Green '21 [1-3]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3]
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Zachary York '20 [1-3]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3]
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20	No Show
Purple Roses	No Show	No Show
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-3]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Trent Morrison '22 [3]
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19	Jack Parks '21
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Sydney Gusmer '22
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3]	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Juliana Scheick '22 [3]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Spring 2019 Wed Series #1

Division A

Division B

From the notes