NJISA 2019 Spring Wednesday Series #5

HostRanney @ TRYC & OCC
Date04/10/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 1	11	5	16
2	Toms River North	Mariners	9	11	20
3	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	20	13	33
4	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	38	16	54
5	Southern Regional High School	Rams	41	16	57
6	Ranney School	Panthers 2	27	40	67
7	Toms River South	Indians	36	35	71
8	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	43	31	74
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	46	33	79
10	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	31	50	81
11	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	55	32	87
12	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	42	47	89
13	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	29	63	92
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	34	60	94
15	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	38	58	96
16	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	58	45	103
17	Central Regional High School	Eagles	54	57	111
18	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	76	76	152

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	1	4	3	1	9	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Ranney School	Panthers 1	7	1	1	2	11	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	3	10	2	5	20	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Ranney School	Panthers 2	4	3	5	15	27	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Ashley Abboud '22 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	10	11	4	4	29	Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	5	5	13	8	31	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4] Hope Maguire '19 [1-2] Alex Chrystal '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	8	2	14	10	34	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Toms River South	Indians	6	6	11	13	36	Zach Higham '19 Alexa Carles '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	2	7	15	14	38	Michael Pinto '19 Chase Davis '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	13	12	6	7	38	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	12	9	8	12	41	Brielle Willoughby '20 Joe Mrazek '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	11	13	9	9	42	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4] Genieve Hand '21 [1-2] Caroline Fortier '19 [3-4]
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	14	16	7	6	43	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-4] Emerson Furgason '20 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	14	12	11	46	Patrick Cashin '20 John Ruane '21
Central Regional High School	Eagles	17	17	17	3	54	Morgan Smith '21 [1-2] Peter Taboada '20 [3-4] Nick Di Corcia '22 [1-2] Vaughn Armstrong '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	15	8	16	16	55	Matthew Bell '20 Walter Mehl '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	16	15	10	17	58	Sophie Harrington '22 Owen Geohegan '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	76	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	1	2	1	5	Cameron Giblin '19 Will Beyer '20
Toms River North	Mariners	2	2	3	4	11	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	5	5	1	2	13	Michaela O'Brien '20 Colleen O'Brien '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	3	4	6	16	Bridget Green '21 Alex Klinov '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	4	5	3	16	Ryan Mullins '19 Connor Feury '22
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	7	8	8	8	31	Lucas Escandon '22 [1-4] Ryan Dailey '20 [1-2] Thomas Rose '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	9	9	7	7	32	Justin Modin '19 Hunter Oleynik '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	14	6	5	33	Colin Guerrera '22 Aedan Moran '20
Toms River South	Indians	10	7	9	9	35	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Garrett Johnston '22 [3-4] Sonja Krajewski '22 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 2	11	6	10	13	40	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-4] John Cocozza '20 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	6	12	16	11	45	Ian Wurch '21 Tim Buch '22
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	13	10	14	10	47	Jazz Worethy '21 Madison Vitale '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	12	11	12	15	50	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-4] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Juliana Scheick '22 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	17	15	13	12	57	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Aris Condos '20 [3-4] Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2] Vaughn Armstrong '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	16	11	16	58	Chris Medolla '20 Mason Medolla '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	14	17	15	14	60	Sloane Nelson '22 Danny Piazza '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	16	13	17	17	63	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 Dillon Mccann '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	76	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	13	13	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	15	15	15	15
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	17	17	17	17
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	18	18	18	18
Ranney School Panthers 1	1	1	1	1
Ranney School Panthers 2	2	2	2	2
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	3	3	3	3
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	4	4	4	4
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	5	5	5	5
Southern Regional High School Rams	6	6	6	6
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	7	7	7	7
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	8	8	8	8
Toms River North Mariners	9	9	9	9
Toms River South Indians	10	10	10	10
Trinity Hall Monarchs	11	11	11	11

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	13	13	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	15	15	15	15
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	17	17	17	17
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	18	18	18	18
Ranney School Panthers 1	1	1	1	1
Ranney School Panthers 2	2	2	2	2
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	3	3	3	3
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	4	4	4	4
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	5	5	5	5
Southern Regional High School Rams	6	6	6	6
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	7	7	7	7
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	8	8	8	8
Toms River North Mariners	9	9	9	9
Toms River South Indians	10	10	10	10
Trinity Hall Monarchs	11	11	11	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Morgan Smith '21 [1-2] Peter Taboada '20 [3-4]	Nick Di Corcia '22 [1-2] Vaughn Armstrong '22 [3-4]
Eagles	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Aris Condos '20 [3-4]	Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2] Vaughn Armstrong '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	John Ruane '21
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22	Aedan Moran '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	Walter Mehl '21
Colts 3	Justin Modin '19	Hunter Oleynik '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins 1	Sloane Nelson '22	Danny Piazza '21
Donovan Catholic High School	No Show	No Show
Griffins 2	No Show	No Show
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Harrison Quinn '20
Rangers	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21	Dillon Mccann '21
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1	Cameron Giblin '19	Will Beyer '20
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4]	Matthew Hamelsky '19 [1-2] Ashley Abboud '22 [3-4]
Panthers 2	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-4]	John Cocozza '20 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4]	Genieve Hand '21 [1-2] Caroline Fortier '19 [3-4]
Caseys	Jazz Worethy '21	Madison Vitale '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1	Michaela O'Brien '20	Colleen O'Brien '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Sophie Harrington '22	Owen Geohegan '22
Bulldogs 2	Ian Wurch '21	Tim Buch '22
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20	Joe Mrazek '20
Rams	Bridget Green '21	Alex Klinov '22
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Chase Davis '20
Hermits	Chris Medolla '20	Mason Medolla '22
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-4]	Emerson Furgason '20 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Purple Roses	Lucas Escandon '22 [1-4]	Ryan Dailey '20 [1-2] Thomas Rose '20 [3-4]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Alexa Carles '19
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Garrett Johnston '22 [3-4]	Sonja Krajewski '22 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4]	Hope Maguire '19 [1-2] Alex Chrystal '20 [3-4]
Monarchs	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-4]	Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Juliana Scheick '22 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Spring Wednesday Series #5

Division A

Division B

From the notes