NJISA 2018 Fall Fleet Champs

HostTRYC & OCC
Date09/29/2018
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers	25	10	35
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	25	33	58
3	Toms River North	Mariners	29	38	67
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	31	41	72
5	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	40	43	83
6	Conestoga High School	Pioneers	72	31	103
7	Toms River South	Indians	58	54	112
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	77	42	119
9	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	65	58	123
10	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	52	78	130
11	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	74	74	148
12	Chatham High School	Cougars	96	60	156
13	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	69	98	167
14	Central Regional High School	Eagles	82	86	168
15	Henry Hudson Regional School	Admirals	70	106	176
16	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	87	100	187

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	3	3	5	1	6	4	3	25	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	4	6	1	3	2	7	2	25	Brielle Willoughby '20 Bridget Green '21
Toms River North	Mariners	1	2	2	5	4	9	6	29	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	7	1	4	2	1	15	1	31	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-7] Sophie Harrington '22 [1-2] Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [3-7]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	2	4	8	8	3	2	13	40	Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	6	12	10	4	11	1	8	52	Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Toms River South	Indians	12	7	16	6	5	5	7	58	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	16	8	12	11	8	6	4	65	Sean Groskoph '20 [1-7] Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2, 7] Sophie Lusty '20 [3-6]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	5	3	13	13	14	16	69	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Henry Hudson Regional School	Admirals	8	11	6	10	7	13	15	70	Benson Chiles '22 Tobin Mytnick '22
Conestoga High School	Pioneers	10	10	15	15	9	8	5	72	Garrett Roach '20 Emily Pinsk '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	14	9	11	12	15	3	10	74	Michael Pinto '19 [1-4] Patrick York '20 [5-7] Patrick York '20 [1-2] Mason Medolla '22 [3-4, 7] Michael Pinto '19 [5-6]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	9	13	9	9	12	11	14	77	Quinn Harrington '19 [1-7] Ryan Ehnot '22 [1-2] Walter Mehl '21 [3-6] Connor Feury '22 [7]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	13	14	7	16	10	10	12	82	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-4, 7] Arianna Weber '21 [5-6] Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-4, 7] Danielle Petry '20 [5-6]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	11	16	14	7	16	12	11	87	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4, 6-7] Hailey Hathaway '22 [5] Hailey Hathaway '22 [1-4, 6-7] Molly Meehan '19 [5]
Chatham High School	Cougars	15	15	13	14	14	16	9	96	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-7] Zoe Papier '19 [1-3] Ryan Mcwalters '21 [4-7]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	1	3	1	1	2	1	1	10	Cameron Giblin '19 Will Beyer '20
Conestoga High School	Pioneers	2	1	2	3	4	9	10	31	Charlie Mckenzie '21 Emily Dougherty '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams	10	5	6	5	1	2	4	33	Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
Toms River North	Mariners	5	6	4	6	10	5	2	38	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	3	2	8	9	7	4	8	41	Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-7] Amelia Buch '20 [1-2] Danny Raphael '19 [3-7]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	8	4	3	8	6	8	5	42	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	4	8	7	7	8	3	6	43	Julia Laforgia '19 Hope Maguire '19
Toms River South	Indians	6	7	10	2	5	12	12	54	Leo Krajewski '19 Alexa Carles '19
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	9	10	11	4	3	10	11	58	Hannah Mercurio '20 Mia Chmelar '19
Chatham High School	Cougars	7	11	5	13	9	6	9	60	Thomas Marino '21 Paige Lubrano '22
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	14	14	9	16	11	7	3	74	Zachary York '20 [1-4, 7] Chris Medolla '20 [5-6] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2, 7] Chase Davis '20 [3-4] Zachary York '20 [5-6]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	12	12	12	10	14	11	7	78	Topher Lucyk '20 Shane Mccutcheon '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	9	13	11	13	14	15	86	Annabel Bornebusch '22 Owen Desanto '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	13	13	14	14	15	13	16	98	Luke Barlet '20 [1-4] Joseph Paccione '21 [5-7] Gabriel Anama '21 [1-4] Thomas Glawson '19 [5-7]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	15	16	16	12	12	16	13	100	Caroline Fortier '19 Steven Clagget '19
Henry Hudson Regional School	Admirals	16	15	15	15	16	15	14	106	Conor Greene '22 Gavin Sapio '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Conestoga High School Pioneers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Henry Hudson Regional School Admirals	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Ranney School Panthers	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Southern Regional High School Rams	11	11	13	13	15	15	1
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	12	12	14	14	16	16	2
Summit High School Hilltoppers	13	13	15	15	1	1	3
Toms River North Mariners	14	14	16	16	2	2	4
Toms River South Indians	15	15	1	1	3	3	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	16	16	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Central Regional High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Chatham High School Cougars	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Conestoga High School Pioneers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Henry Hudson Regional School Admirals	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Ranney School Panthers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	13	13	15	15	1
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	14	14	16	16	2
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	13	13	15	15	1	1	3
Summit High School Hilltoppers	14	14	16	16	2	2	4
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	1	1	3	3	5
Toms River South Indians	16	16	2	2	4	4	6
Trinity Hall Monarchs	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-4, 7] Arianna Weber '21 [5-6]	Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-4, 7] Danielle Petry '20 [5-6]
Eagles	Annabel Bornebusch '22	Owen Desanto '23
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-7]	Zoe Papier '19 [1-3] Ryan Mcwalters '21 [4-7]
Cougars	Thomas Marino '21	Paige Lubrano '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Quinn Harrington '19 [1-7]	Ryan Ehnot '22 [1-2] Walter Mehl '21 [3-6] Connor Feury '22 [7]
Colts	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Conestoga High School	Garrett Roach '20	Emily Pinsk '19
Pioneers	Charlie Mckenzie '21	Emily Dougherty '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Luke Barlet '20 [1-4] Joseph Paccione '21 [5-7]	Gabriel Anama '21 [1-4] Thomas Glawson '19 [5-7]
Henry Hudson Regional School	Benson Chiles '22	Tobin Mytnick '22
Admirals	Conor Greene '22	Gavin Sapio '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Harrison Quinn '20
Varsity	Topher Lucyk '20	Shane Mccutcheon '20
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers	Cameron Giblin '19	Will Beyer '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4, 6-7] Hailey Hathaway '22 [5]	Hailey Hathaway '22 [1-4, 6-7] Molly Meehan '19 [5]
Caseys	Caroline Fortier '19	Steven Clagget '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-7]	Sophie Harrington '22 [1-2] Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [3-7]
Bulldogs	Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-7]	Amelia Buch '20 [1-2] Danny Raphael '19 [3-7]
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20	Bridget Green '21
Rams	Tom Green '19	Joe Mrazek '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19 [1-4] Patrick York '20 [5-7]	Patrick York '20 [1-2] Mason Medolla '22 [3-4, 7] Michael Pinto '19 [5-6]
Hermits	Zachary York '20 [1-4, 7] Chris Medolla '20 [5-6]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2, 7] Chase Davis '20 [3-4] Zachary York '20 [5-6]
Summit High School	Sean Groskoph '20 [1-7]	Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2, 7] Sophie Lusty '20 [3-6]
Hilltoppers	Hannah Mercurio '20	Mia Chmelar '19
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19	Alexa Carles '19
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Hope Maguire '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2018 Fall Fleet Champs

Division A

Division B

From the notes