NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #3

HostSailorcise @ TRYC & OCC
Date03/27/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	15	10	25
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	34	12	46
3	Toms River North	Mariners	23	23	46
4	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	29	23	52
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	27	30	57
6	Toms River South	Indians	39	37	76
7	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	43	38	81
8	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	21	68	89
9	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	41	51	92
10	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	35	57	92
11	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	65	34	99
12	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	66	39	105
13	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	54	75	129
14	Central Regional High School	Eagles	66	65	131
15	Chatham High School	Cougars	72	67	139
16	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	70	75	145
17	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	67	83	150
18	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	88	69	157

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	1	4	1	5	4	15	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-5] Sophie Harrington '22 [1-4] Joey Cooner '19 [5]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	4	1	6	9	1	21	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Toms River North	Mariners	3	3	8	4	5	23	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	7	6	4	2	8	27	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	6	2	2	12	7	29	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	7	7	3	15	34	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3-5] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	11	15	5	1	3	35	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Toms River South	Indians	5	5	10	13	6	39	Zach Higham '19 [1-5] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Sonja Krajewski '22 [3-5]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	8	3	10	10	41	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	16	10	9	6	2	43	Quinn Harrington '19 Justin Modin '19
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	13	9	13	8	11	54	Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	9	14	12	17	13	65	Patrick Cashin '20 John Ruane '21
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	8	13	15	16	14	66	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-5] Emerson Furgason '20 [1-2] Thomas Rose '20 [3-5]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	12	17	14	14	9	66	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-5] Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-2] Maxwell Bonanno '19 [3-5]
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	14	11	17	7	18	67	No Show No Show
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	15	12	11	15	17	70	Molly Meehan '19 Madison Vitale '21
Chatham High School	Cougars	17	16	16	11	12	72	Luke Duplessis '20 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	18	18	18	18	16	88	Danny Piazza '21 Jack Stout '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	1	1	1	3	4	10	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Taylor Rice '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	3	2	4	1	12	Bridget Green '21 [1-5] Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-5]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	3	4	3	6	7	23	Zachary York '20 Chase Davis '20
Toms River North	Mariners	5	5	6	2	5	23	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	OCS	4	1	2	30	Ryan Mullins '19 Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	6	9	5	8	6	34	Matthew Bell '20 Aedan Moran '20
Toms River South	Indians	8	2	9	9	9	37	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Garrett Johnston '22 [3-5] Jack Parks '21 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-5]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	10	10	8	7	3	38	Colin Guerrera '22 Walter Mehl '21
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	7	7	7	5	13	39	Emma Coakley '20 Ryan Dailey '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	6	11	11	14	51	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-5] Hope Maguire '19 [1-2] Lauren Ehnot '20 [3-5]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	11	14	10	14	8	57	Luke Barlet '20 Sloane Nelson '22
Central Regional High School	Eagles	18	8	14	10	15	65	Morgan Smith '21 [1-2] Aris Condos '20 [3-5] Danielle Petry '20 [1-2]
Chatham High School	Cougars	15	11	16	13	12	67	Ciara Doherty '21 Henry Gallagher '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	14	12	13	12	17	68	Sophie Harrington '22 [1-2] Ian Wurch '21 [3-5] Owen Geohegan '22 [1-2] Claire Haynes '19 [3-5]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	12	17	15	15	10	69	Gabriel Anama '21 Jack Larkin '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	13	15	12	17	18	75	Caroline Fortier '19 Jazz Worethy '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	16	13	17	18	11	75	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 Dillon Mccann '21
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	17	16	18	16	16	83	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Central Regional High School Eagles	18	18	18	18	18
Chatham High School Cougars	17	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	16	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	15	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	14	14	14	14	14
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	13	13	13	13	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	12	12	12	12	12
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	11	11	11	11	11
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	10	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	8	8	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams	7	7	7	7	7
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	6	6	6	6	6
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	5	5	5	5	5
Toms River North Mariners	4	4	4	4	4
Toms River South Indians	3	3	3	3	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	2	2	2	2	2
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates	1	1	1	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Central Regional High School Eagles	18	18	18	18	18
Chatham High School Cougars	17	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	16	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	15	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	14	14	14	14	14
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	13	13	13	13	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	12	12	12	12	12
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	11	11	11	11	11
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	10	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	8	8	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams	7	7	7	7	7
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	6	6	6	6	6
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	5	5	5	5	5
Toms River North Mariners	4	4	4	4	4
Toms River South Indians	3	3	3	3	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	2	2	2	2	2
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates	1	1	1	1	1

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-5]	Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-2] Maxwell Bonanno '19 [3-5]
Eagles	Morgan Smith '21 [1-2] Aris Condos '20 [3-5]	Danielle Petry '20 [1-2]
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Cougars	Ciara Doherty '21	Henry Gallagher '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Quinn Harrington '19	Justin Modin '19
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22	Walter Mehl '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	John Ruane '21
Colts 3	Matthew Bell '20	Aedan Moran '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Danny Piazza '21	Jack Stout '20
Griffins 1	Gabriel Anama '21	Jack Larkin '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins 2	Luke Barlet '20	Sloane Nelson '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Harrison Quinn '20
Rangers	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21	Dillon Mccann '21
Red Bank Catholic High School	Molly Meehan '19	Madison Vitale '21
Caseys	Caroline Fortier '19	Jazz Worethy '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20 [1-5]	Sophie Harrington '22 [1-4] Joey Cooner '19 [5]
Bulldogs 1	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Taylor Rice '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Bulldogs 2	Sophie Harrington '22 [1-2] Ian Wurch '21 [3-5]	Owen Geohegan '22 [1-2] Claire Haynes '19 [3-5]
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3-5]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2]
Rams	Bridget Green '21 [1-5]	Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-5]
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Zachary York '20	Chase Davis '20
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-5]	Emerson Furgason '20 [1-2] Thomas Rose '20 [3-5]
Purple Roses	Emma Coakley '20	Ryan Dailey '20
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-5]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Sonja Krajewski '22 [3-5]
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2] Garrett Johnston '22 [3-5]	Jack Parks '21 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-5]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-5]	Hope Maguire '19 [1-2] Lauren Ehnot '20 [3-5]
Unregistered-MASSA	No Show	No Show
Pirates	No Show	No Show

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #3

Division A

Division B

From the notes