NJISA 2019 Fall Series 5

HostRumson-Fair Haven
Date10/23/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Toms River North	Mariners	13	7	20
2	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	24	10	34
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	28	22	50
4	Ranney School	Panthers 2	23	34	57
5	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	20	40	60
6	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	35	25	60
7	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	21	40	61
8	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	22	42	64
9	Chatham High School	Cougars	47	17	64
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	23	46	69
11	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	45	28	73
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	49	35	84
13	Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	51	45	96
14	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	48	64	112
15	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	64	48	112
16	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	57	59	116
17	Ranney School	Panthers 1	54	63	117
18	Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	60	59	119

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	7	1	1	4	13	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	5	8	2	5	20	Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Grace Micciche '23 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	8	5	6	2	21	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	1	3	5	13	22	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	4	13	3	3	23	Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	6	6	4	7	23	Matthew Bell '20 Bryce Vitiello '23
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	3	2	18	1	24	Colleen O'Brien '20 Fritz Sellig '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	2	4	8	14	28	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	12	7	6	35	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	14	9	13	9	45	Zachary York '20 Calvin Mcclain '22
Chatham High School	Cougars	9	16	10	12	47	Luke Duplessis '20 Jonathan Field '22
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	15	14	9	10	48	Mercedes Escandon '20 Emerson Furgason '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	11	15	12	11	49	Aedan Moran '20 [1-4] Andrew Chiles '23 [1-2] John Ruane '21 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	12	7	15	17	51	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2] Arianna Weber '21 [3-4] Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2] Annabel Bornebusch '22 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 1	17	10	11	16	54	Jack Whitman '23 Tomas Mora '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	16	17	16	8	57	Topher Lucyk '20 [1-2] Will Kernan '23 [3-4] Esteban Pedroza '23 [1-2]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	13	18	14	15	60	Peter Taboada '20 Vaughn Armstrong '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	18	11	17	18	64	Joe Paccione '21 [1-4] Hayden Warwick '23 [1-2] Nora Ciak '23 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	1	2	2	2	7	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	2	1	6	1	10	Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2] Fritz Sellig '21 [3-4] Sophie Harrington '22 [1-2] Amelia Buch '20 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars	3	5	4	5	17	Thomas Marino '21 Paige Lubrano '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	12	4	3	3	22	Colin Guerrera '22 Connor Feury '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	4	3	8	10	25	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	11	6	7	4	28	Patrick York '20 [1-4] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 2	8	14	5	7	34	Alexa Whitman '22 Kieran Collins '25
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	10	10	1	14	35	Duncan Hathaway '20 Martin Horowitz '23
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	6	12	9	13	40	Kennedy Laureigh '22 Joe Mrazek '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	13	9	10	8	40	Chloe Witt '23 Alex Klinov '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	14	8	14	6	42	Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4] Katie Shives '20 [1-2] Hayden Warwick '23 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	7	18	11	9	45	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Jordan Macmoyle '20 [3-4] Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Danielle Petry '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	7	13	17	46	Noah Kuzloski '23 [1-2] Walter Mehl '21 [3-4] Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2] Nicholas Cunha '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	5	16	16	11	48	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Jack Stout '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	15	11	18	15	59	Aidan Risk '23 Brodie Best '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	17	13	17	12	59	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 [1-2] Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-4] Dillon Mccann '21 [1-2]
Ranney School	Panthers 1	18	17	12	16	63	Grace Bray '23 Rowan Johnson '23
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	16	15	15	18	64	Mcmanus Cameron '22 [1-4] Angelina '22 [1-2] Thomas Rose '20 [3-4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2	2	2
Chatham High School Cougars	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	5	5	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	6	6	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	7	7	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	8	8	8	8
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	9	9	9	9
Ranney School Panthers 1	10	10	10	10
Ranney School Panthers 2	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	13	13	13	13
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	14	14	14	14
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	15	15	15	15
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	16	16	16	16
Toms River North Mariners	17	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2	2	2
Chatham High School Cougars	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	5	5	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	6	6	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	7	7	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	8	8	8	8
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	9	9	9	9
Ranney School Panthers 1	10	10	10	10
Ranney School Panthers 2	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	13	13	13	13
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	14	14	14	14
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	15	15	15	15
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	16	16	16	16
Toms River North Mariners	17	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2] Arianna Weber '21 [3-4]	Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2] Annabel Bornebusch '22 [3-4]
Eagles 1	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Jordan Macmoyle '20 [3-4]	Owen Desanto '23 [1-2] Danielle Petry '20 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Peter Taboada '20	Vaughn Armstrong '22
Eagles 2	Aidan Risk '23	Brodie Best '23
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20	Jonathan Field '22
Cougars	Thomas Marino '21	Paige Lubrano '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Colin Guerrera '22	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	Bryce Vitiello '23
Colts 2	Noah Kuzloski '23 [1-2] Walter Mehl '21 [3-4]	Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2] Nicholas Cunha '23 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Aedan Moran '20 [1-4]	Andrew Chiles '23 [1-2] John Ruane '21 [3-4]
Colts 3	Duncan Hathaway '20	Martin Horowitz '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins 1	Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4]	Katie Shives '20 [1-2] Hayden Warwick '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Joe Paccione '21 [1-4]	Hayden Warwick '23 [1-2] Nora Ciak '23 [3-4]
Griffins 2	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Jack Stout '20
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Topher Lucyk '20 [1-2] Will Kernan '23 [3-4]	Esteban Pedroza '23 [1-2]
Rangers	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 [1-2] Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-4]	Dillon Mccann '21 [1-2]
Ranney School	Jack Whitman '23	Tomas Mora '23
Panthers 1	Grace Bray '23	Rowan Johnson '23
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers 2	Alexa Whitman '22	Kieran Collins '25
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Fritz Sellig '21
Bulldogs	Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2] Fritz Sellig '21 [3-4]	Sophie Harrington '22 [1-2] Amelia Buch '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]	Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Rams 1	Kennedy Laureigh '22	Joe Mrazek '20
Southern Regional High School	Bridget Green '21 [1-4]	Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Grace Micciche '23 [3-4]
Rams 2	Chloe Witt '23	Alex Klinov '22
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20	Calvin Mcclain '22
Hermits	Patrick York '20 [1-4]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20	Emerson Furgason '20
Purple Roses	Mcmanus Cameron '22 [1-4]	Angelina '22 [1-2] Thomas Rose '20 [3-4]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22
Monarchs	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Fall Series 5

Division A

Division B

From the notes