NJISA Wed Series Eight

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 4 11 15
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 17 8 25
3 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 11 19 30
4 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 24 20 44
5 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 22 29 51
6 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 27 30 57
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 40 20 60
8 Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 25 41 66
9 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 30 51 81
10 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 43 41 84
11 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 35 53 88
12 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 60 28 88
13 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 53 36 89
14 Purple Roses Purple Roses Purple Roses 43 51 94
15 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 46 54 100
16 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 66 58 124
17 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 66 63 129
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 1 1 1 4 Luke Arnone '19 [1-2]
Cameron Giblin '19 [3-4]
Blake Epstein '19 [1-2]
Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 4 2 3 11 Colleen O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 3 2 8 4 17 Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]
Tom Green '19 [1-2]
Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 7 3 6 6 22 Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4]
Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2]
Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 4 5 4 11 24 Declan Botwinick '21
Evan Harrison '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 8 12 3 2 25 Patrick Modin '19
Harrison Quinn '20
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 5 8 9 5 27 Zach Higham '19 [1-4]
Jack Parks '21 [1-2]
Garrett Johnston '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 9 9 5 7 30 Zachary York '20 [1-2]
Michael Pinto '19 [3-4]
Corbin Menzgentzow '22 [1-2]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 6 7 13 9 35 Bridget Green '21 [1-4]
Christian Pagan '22 [1-2]
Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 11 10 11 8 40 Ryan Mullins '19
Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 10 6 14 13 43 Quinn Harrington '19 [1-4]
Walter Mehl '21 [1-2]
Connor Feury '22 [3-4]
Purple Roses Purple Roses Purple Roses 13 11 7 12 43
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 12 14 10 10 46 No Show
No Show
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 14 13 12 14 53 Patrick Cashin '20 [1-2]
Michael Laguardia '21 [3-4]
John Ruane '21 [1-2]
Bradford Iturralde '20 [3-4]
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 15 15 15 15 60 Erin Murphy '20 [1-4]
Aris Condos '20 [1-2]
Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 16 17 16 17 66 Luke Barlet '20
Thomas Glawson '19
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 17 16 17 16 66 Danny Piazza '21
Jack Stout '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 1 1 3 3 8 Tom Green '19
Joe Mrazek '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 3 2 2 4 11 Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4]
John Cocozza '20 [1-2]
Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 4 4 10 1 19 Michaela O'Brien '20
Amelia Buch '20
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 2 3 8 7 20 Everett Botwinick '22
Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 7 7 1 5 20 Ryan Ehnot '22
Justin Modin '19
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 10 5 5 8 28 Joey Laplaca '20
Arianna Weber '21
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 5 15 7 2 29 Julia Laforgia '19
Hope Maguire '19
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 9 8 4 9 30 Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2]
Alexa Carles '19 [3-4]
Alexa Carles '19 [1-2]
Paige Zelenak '19 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 6 10 14 6 36 Matthew Bell '20 [1-2]
Duncan Hathaway '20 [3-4]
Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Hunter Oleynik '22 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 8 13 9 11 41 Topher Lucyk '20
Riley Plosica '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 11 9 6 15 41 Colin Guerrera '22
Aedan Moran '20
Purple Roses Purple Roses Purple Roses 12 14 11 14 51
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 13 6 16 16 51 Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Chase Davis '20 [1-2]
Mason Medolla '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 15 11 15 12 53 Christian Pagan '22
No Show
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 14 12 DNS 10 54 No Show
No Show
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 17 16 12 13 58 Joseph Paccione '21
Jack Larkin '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 16 17 13 17 63 Alexander Plaskon '21
Javier Perez '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 12222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 23333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 34444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 15555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 26666
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity8888
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers9999
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs10101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 111111111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 212121212
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits13131313
Purple RosesPurple Roses Purple Roses14141414
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners15151515
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians16161616
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs17171717
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates18181818

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 12222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 23333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 34444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 15555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 26666
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity8888
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers9999
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs10101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 111111111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 212121212
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits13131313
Purple RosesPurple Roses Purple Roses14141414
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners15151515
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians16161616
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs17171717
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates18181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Erin Murphy '20 [1-4] Aris Condos '20 [1-2]
Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Eagles Joey Laplaca '20 Arianna Weber '21
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Colts 1 Ryan Ehnot '22 Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Quinn Harrington '19 [1-4] Walter Mehl '21 [1-2]
Connor Feury '22 [3-4]
Colts 2 Colin Guerrera '22 Aedan Moran '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Patrick Cashin '20 [1-2]
Michael Laguardia '21 [3-4]
John Ruane '21 [1-2]
Bradford Iturralde '20 [3-4]
Colts 3 Matthew Bell '20 [1-2]
Duncan Hathaway '20 [3-4]
Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Hunter Oleynik '22 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Luke Barlet '20 Thomas Glawson '19
Griffins 1 Joseph Paccione '21 Jack Larkin '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Danny Piazza '21 Jack Stout '20
Griffins 2 Alexander Plaskon '21 Javier Perez '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Varsity Topher Lucyk '20 Riley Plosica '19
Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 [1-2]
Cameron Giblin '19 [3-4]
Blake Epstein '19 [1-2]
Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-4]
Panthers Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4] John Cocozza '20 [1-2]
Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Tom Green '19 [1-2]
Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Rams 1 Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Christian Pagan '22 [1-2]
Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Rams 2 Christian Pagan '22 No Show
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Zachary York '20 [1-2]
Michael Pinto '19 [3-4]
Corbin Menzgentzow '22 [1-2]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
Hermits Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Chase Davis '20 [1-2]
Mason Medolla '22 [3-4]
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Mariners Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South Toms River South Zach Higham '19 [1-4] Jack Parks '21 [1-2]
Garrett Johnston '22 [3-4]
Indians Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2]
Alexa Carles '19 [3-4]
Alexa Carles '19 [1-2]
Paige Zelenak '19 [3-4]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2]
Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Monarchs Julia Laforgia '19 Hope Maguire '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA No Show No Show
Pirates No Show No Show

Conditions — 10/31/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.1 kn
Gusts to 24.7 kn
From S (186°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1017.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ranney: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ranney by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Ranney, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →