NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #2

HostSouthern Regional @ TRYC & OCC
Date03/20/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	20	10	30
2	Toms River North	Mariners	18	12	30
3	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	28	12	40
4	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	13	38	51
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	36	15	51
6	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	35	31	66
7	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	27	43	70
8	Toms River South	Indians	33	37	70
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	41	30	71
10	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	39	37	76
11	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	44	33	77
12	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	21	62	83
13	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	44	39	83
14	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	51	33	84
15	Chatham High School	Cougars	47	55	102
16	Central Regional High School	Eagles	56	60	116
17	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	65	66	131

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	2	1	4	6	13	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
Toms River North	Mariners	6	3	6	3	18	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	2	13	4	20	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4] Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	11	4	1	5	21	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	5	OCS	3	1	27	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	3	OCS	5	2	28	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Toms River South	Indians	8	6	8	11	33	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	7	10	9	9	35	Zachary York '20 [1-4] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Mason Medolla '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	OCS	7	7	36	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	9	9	11	10	39	Patrick Modin '19 Owen Geohegan '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	10	7	12	12	41	Quinn Harrington '19 John Ruane '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	12	5	14	13	44	Patrick Cashin '20 Aedan Moran '20
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	15	12	2	15	44	Mercedes Escandon '20 No Show
Chatham High School	Cougars	16	8	15	8	47	Luke Duplessis '20 Henry Gallagher '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	14	11	10	16	51	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4] Caroline Fortier '19 [1-2] Jazz Worethy '21 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	13	13	16	14	56	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2] Aris Condos '20 [3-4] Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	17	14	17	17	65	Danny Piazza '21 Jack Stout '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	1	6	1	10	Tom Green '19 [1-4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	3	2	2	5	12	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Taylor Rice '19
Toms River North	Mariners	4	5	1	2	12	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	6	3	3	3	15	Ryan Mullins '19 Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	10	9	4	7	30	Colin Guerrera '22 Justin Modin '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	7	6	9	9	31	Patrick York '20 Chase Davis '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	11	4	12	6	33	Benson Chiles '22 No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	13	7	5	8	33	Matthew Bell '20 Walter Mehl '21
Toms River South	Indians	5	11	8	13	37	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-4] Garrett Johnston '22 [1-2] Sonja Krajewski '22 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	12	10	11	4	37	Riley Plosica '19 [1] Harrison Quinn '20 [2-4] Harrison Quinn '20 [1] Riley Plosica '19 [2-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	1	13	7	17	38	Julia Laforgia '19 Hope Maguire '19
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	9	8	10	12	39	No Show No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	8	12	13	10	43	Ian Wurch '21 [1-4] Claire Haynes '19 [1-2] Joey Cooner '19 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars	14	16	14	11	55	Paige Lubrano '22 Amanda Williams '21
Central Regional High School	Eagles	15	14	16	15	60	Morgan Smith '21 [1-2] Owen Desanto '23 [3-4] Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Vaughn Armstrong '22 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	OCS	15	15	14	62	Sloane Nelson '22 Alexander Plaskon '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	16	17	17	16	66	Danny Piazza '21 Jack Stout '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	6	6	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	7	7	7	7
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	8	8	8	8
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	13	13	13	13
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	6	6	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	7	7	7	7
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	8	8	8	8
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	13	13	13	13
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2] Aris Condos '20 [3-4]	Alexander Cammarato '22 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Eagles	Morgan Smith '21 [1-2] Owen Desanto '23 [3-4]	Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Vaughn Armstrong '22 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20	Henry Gallagher '20
Cougars	Paige Lubrano '22	Amanda Williams '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Quinn Harrington '19	John Ruane '21
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22	Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	Aedan Moran '20
Colts 3	Matthew Bell '20	Walter Mehl '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Danny Piazza '21	Jack Stout '20
Griffins 1	Danny Piazza '21	Jack Stout '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins 2	Sloane Nelson '22	Alexander Plaskon '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Owen Geohegan '22
Rangers	Riley Plosica '19 [1] Harrison Quinn '20 [2-4]	Harrison Quinn '20 [1] Riley Plosica '19 [2-4]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Molly Meehan '19 [1-4]	Caroline Fortier '19 [1-2] Jazz Worethy '21 [3-4]
Caseys	Benson Chiles '22	No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Bulldogs 1	Ian Wurch '21 [1-4]	Claire Haynes '19 [1-2] Joey Cooner '19 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Taylor Rice '19
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4]	Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20 [1-4]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Mason Medolla '22 [3-4]
Hermits	Patrick York '20	Chase Davis '20
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20	No Show
Purple Roses	No Show	No Show
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-4]	Garrett Johnston '22 [1-2] Sonja Krajewski '22 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Hope Maguire '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #2

Division A

Division B

From the notes