| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Southern Regional High School | Rams | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
St. Augustine Prep School | Hermits | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,050 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 20 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.392 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.47: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven | 6.25 | 9.25 | 8–0 | 4.9 | ≥+3.00 | 6.2 | 1% |
| 4 | Christian Brothers Academy | 3.63 | 4.25 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.62 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 3 | Southern Regional High School | 6.20 | 5.34 | 4–4 | 4.9 | −0.86 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2 | Ranney School | 7.98 | 6.63 | 6–2 | 7.1 | −1.35 | 0.9 | 95% |
| 5 | St. Augustine Prep School | 3.77 | 0.77 | 0–8 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Guerrera | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.25 | 1.87 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.62 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Matthew Bell | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.87 | 1.49 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.62 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Tom Green | Southern Regional High School | 1.97 | 1.10 | 4–4 | 4.9 | −0.86 | 0.4 | 90% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colts | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hermits | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hermits | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hermits | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Colts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hermits | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hermits | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hermits | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hermits | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Colts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hermits | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | Colleen O'Brien '20 Michaela O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 |
Morgan Rice '21 Claire Haynes '19 Taylor Rice '19 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Brooke Schmelz '21 Cameron Giblin '19 Luke Arnone '19 |
Matthew Hamelsky '19 Alexa Whitman '22 Alexandria Forrest '22 Will Beyer '20 Ashley Abboud '22 John Cocozza '20 Blake Epstein '19 |
|
Southern Regional High School | Rams | Bridget Green '21 Brielle Willoughby '20 Tom Green '19 |
Alex Klinov '22 Nate Ertle '20 Joe Mrazek '20 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Colin Guerrera '22 Matthew Bell '20 Ryan Ehnot '22 |
Justin Modin '19 Walter Mehl '21 Joseph David '20 |
|
St. Augustine Prep School | Hermits | Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20 Zachary York '20 |
Chase Davis '20 Chris Medolla '20 Mason Medolla '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
