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NJISA 2019 Fall Series 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 17 10 27
2 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 27 10 37
3 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 30 12 42
4 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 23 28 51
5 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 32 35 67
6 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 36 39 75
7 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 23 59 82
8 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 18 68 86
9 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 50 44 94
10 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 62 37 99
11 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 48 52 100
12 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 67 51 118
13 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 59 60 119
14 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 71 54 125
15 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 73 61 134
16 St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses 52 85 137
17 Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 77 63 140
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 5 2 1 2 7 17 Colleen O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 6 1 5 4 2 18 Brielle Willoughby '20
Nate Ertle '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 3 3 3 6 8 23 Bridget Green '21
Joe Mrazek '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 4 7 2 7 3 23 Brooke Schmelz '21
Ashley Abboud '22
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 1 5 9 1 11 27 Declan Botwinick '21 [1-5]
Evan Harrison '21 [1-4]
Lindsay Walsh '23 [5]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 7 4 7 8 4 30 Ryan Ehnot '22
Andrew Chiles '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 8 10 10 3 1 32 Colin Guerrera '22
Bryce Vitiello '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 4 12 9 36 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 9 13 6 14 6 48 Lauren Ehnot '20
Alex Chrystal '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 13 6 8 11 12 50 Caroline Maher '21
Sabatino Natalie '21
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses 10 12 11 9 10 52 Mercedes Escandon '20
Emerson Furgason '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 14 11 14 5 15 59 Colleen O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 12 8 13 13 16 62 Zachary York '20 [1-5]
Mason Medolla '22 [1-2, 5]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 16 17 12 17 5 67 Annabel Bornebusch '22 [1-4]
Peter Taboada '20 [5]
Arianna Weber '21 [1-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 11 14 16 16 14 71 Aedan Moran '20 [1-5]
Connor Feury '22 [1-2]
John Ruane '21 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 15 15 15 15 13 73 Luke Duplessis '20
Jonathan Field '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 17 16 17 10 17 77 Topher Lucyk '20 [1-2, 5]
Will Kernan '23 [3-4]
Conor Greene '22 [1-2]
Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-5]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 1 1 4 1 3 10 Michaela O'Brien '20
Amelia Buch '20
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 3 2 2 2 1 10 Everett Botwinick '22
Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 2 4 1 3 2 12 Matthew Bell '20
Nicholas Cunha '23
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 6 5 7 6 4 28 Alexa Whitman '22
John Cocozza '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 4 9 10 5 7 35 Noah Kuzloski '23 [1-5]
Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Michael Mehl '23 [3-5]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 10 3 5 4 15 37 Patrick York '20 [1-4]
Chris Medolla '20 [5]
Chris Medolla '20 [1-2]
Chase Davis '20 [3-5]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 7 7 12 7 6 39 Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4]
Joe Paccione '21 [5]
Joe Paccione '21 [1-4]
Katie Shives '20 [5]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 11 11 3 9 10 44 Anna Schwartz '20
Maddie Donohue '21
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 8 13 6 16 8 51 Owen Desanto '23 [1-4]
Joey Laplaca '20 [5]
Danielle Petry '20 [1-4]
Jordan Macmoyle '20 [5]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 5 8 15 8 16 52 Ella Bilow '22
Sydney Gusmer '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 9 6 11 14 14 54 Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2]
Walter Mehl '21 [3-5]
Martin Horowitz '23 [1-2]
John Flannery '23 [3-5]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 15 14 8 10 12 59 Kennedy Laureigh '22
Alex Klinov '22
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 12 12 14 11 11 60 Michaela O'Brien '20
Amelia Buch '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars DNS 10 9 15 9 61 Carson Lubrano '20
Paige Lubrano '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 13 17 16 12 5 63 Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 [1-4]
Conor Greene '22 [5]
Dillon Mccann '21 [1-4]
Will Kernan '23 [5]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 14 15 13 13 13 68 Christian Pagan '22
Natalie Shaw '23
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses DNS 16 17 17 17 85 Emma Coakley '20 [1-5]
Morgan Crowley '22 [1-4]
Mcmanus Cameron '22 [5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles11111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars33333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 144444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 255555
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 366666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins77777
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers88888
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals99999
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers1010101010
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 11111111111
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 21212121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 11313131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 21414141414
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits1515151515
St. Rose High SchoolSt. Rose High School Purple Roses1616161616
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners1717171717
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs1818181818

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles11111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars33333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 144444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 255555
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 366666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins77777
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers88888
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals99999
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers1010101010
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 11111111111
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 21212121212
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 11313131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 21414141414
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits1515151515
St. Rose High SchoolSt. Rose High School Purple Roses1616161616
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners1717171717
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs1818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Annabel Bornebusch '22 [1-4]
Peter Taboada '20 [5]		 Arianna Weber '21 [1-4]
Eagles Owen Desanto '23 [1-4]
Joey Laplaca '20 [5]		 Danielle Petry '20 [1-4]
Jordan Macmoyle '20 [5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Luke Duplessis '20 Jonathan Field '22
Cougars Carson Lubrano '20 Paige Lubrano '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Ehnot '22 Andrew Chiles '23
Colts 1 Matthew Bell '20 Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colin Guerrera '22 Bryce Vitiello '23
Colts 2 Noah Kuzloski '23 [1-5] Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Michael Mehl '23 [3-5]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Aedan Moran '20 [1-5] Connor Feury '22 [1-2]
John Ruane '21 [3-5]
Colts 3 Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2]
Walter Mehl '21 [3-5]		 Martin Horowitz '23 [1-2]
John Flannery '23 [3-5]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Griffins Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4]
Joe Paccione '21 [5]		 Joe Paccione '21 [1-4]
Katie Shives '20 [5]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Topher Lucyk '20 [1-2, 5]
Will Kernan '23 [3-4]		 Conor Greene '22 [1-2]
Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-5]
Rangers Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 [1-4]
Conor Greene '22 [5]		 Dillon Mccann '21 [1-4]
Will Kernan '23 [5]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Caroline Maher '21 Sabatino Natalie '21
Royals Anna Schwartz '20 Maddie Donohue '21
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers Alexa Whitman '22 John Cocozza '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1 Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2 Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 Nate Ertle '20
Rams 1 Christian Pagan '22 Natalie Shaw '23
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Bridget Green '21 Joe Mrazek '20
Rams 2 Kennedy Laureigh '22 Alex Klinov '22
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Zachary York '20 [1-5] Mason Medolla '22 [1-2, 5]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
Hermits Patrick York '20 [1-4]
Chris Medolla '20 [5]		 Chris Medolla '20 [1-2]
Chase Davis '20 [3-5]
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Mercedes Escandon '20 Emerson Furgason '20
Purple Roses Emma Coakley '20 [1-5] Morgan Crowley '22 [1-4]
Mcmanus Cameron '22 [5]
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 [1-5] Evan Harrison '21 [1-4]
Lindsay Walsh '23 [5]
Mariners Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs Ella Bilow '22 Sydney Gusmer '22

Conditions — 09/25/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From NW (310°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1011.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →