NJISA Wed Series Seven

HostRumson-Fair Haven
Date10/24/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 1	8	4	12
2	Toms River North	Mariners	10	23	33
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams	22	14	36
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	21	17	38
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	29	14	43
6	Pirates	Pirates	22	35	57
7	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	38	26	64
8	Ranney School	Panthers 2	34	38	72
9	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	29	52	81
10	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	45	40	85
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles	58	27	85
12	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	45	41	86
13	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	40	49	89
14	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	49	59	108
15	Chatham High School	Cougars	49	62	111
16	Admirals	Admirals	57	55	112
17	Caseys	Caseys	60	56	116
18	Purple Roses	Purple Roses	74	75	149

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	1	5	1	8	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Toms River North	Mariners	2	2	1	5	10	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	3	4	8	6	21	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams	6	5	9	2	22	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3-4]
Pirates	Pirates	10	7	2	3	22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	9	8	4	8	29	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	DNF	3	3	4	29	Lauren Ehnot '20 Hope Maguire '19
Ranney School	Panthers 2	7	6	11	10	34	Brooke Schmelz '21 John Cocozza '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	11	6	13	38	Quinn Harrington '19 [1-2] Matthew Bell '20 [3-4] Walter Mehl '21 [1-2] Rodney Wotton '20 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	4	9	10	17	40	Danny Raphael '19 Owen Geohegan '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	5	DNF	12	9	45	Patrick Modin '19 Riley Plosica '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	12	15	7	11	45	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Chatham High School	Cougars	11	10	14	14	49	Luke Duplessis '20 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	14	13	7	49	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Michael Pinto '19 [3-4] Corbin Menzgentzow '22 [1-2]
Admirals	Admirals	13	12	16	16	57
Central Regional High School	Eagles	16	13	17	12	58	Erin Murphy '20 [1-4] Alexis Lugo '22 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Caseys	Caseys	14	16	15	15	60
Purple Roses	Purple Roses	17	DNF	DNF	DNF	74

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	1	1	1	1	4	Cameron Giblin '19 Will Beyer '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	3	3	6	14	Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Tom Green '19 [1-2] Christian Pagan '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	3	2	5	4	14	Ryan Ehnot '22 Justin Modin '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	4	6	4	3	17	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Taylor Rice '19
Toms River North	Mariners	5	7	9	2	23	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	6	4	2	14	26	Colin Guerrera '22 Aedan Moran '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	7	5	8	7	27	Joey Laplaca '20 Aris Condos '20
Pirates	Pirates	11	12	7	5	35
Ranney School	Panthers 2	9	8	11	10	38	Matthew Hamelsky '19 Catherine Vucetic '19
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	8	9	15	8	40	Topher Lucyk '20 Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	10	10	6	15	41	Luke Barlet '20 Gabriel Anama '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	12	11	13	13	49	Sophie Harrington '22 Audrey Beyer '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	16	17	10	9	52	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Arianna Weber '21 [3-4] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2]
Admirals	Admirals	17	13	14	11	55
Caseys	Caseys	14	14	12	16	56
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	16	16	12	59	Mason Medolla '22 [1-4] Chase Davis '20 [1-2] Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars	13	15	17	17	62	Ryan Mcwalters '21 Henry Gallagher '20
Purple Roses	Purple Roses	18	DNF	DNF	DNF	75

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5	5
Admirals Admirals	6	6	6	6
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 1	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Caseys Caseys	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	13	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14	14	14
Purple Roses Purple Roses	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17
Pirates Pirates	18	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5	5
Admirals Admirals	6	6	6	6
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 1	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Caseys Caseys	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	11	11	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	13	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14	14	14
Purple Roses Purple Roses	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17
Pirates Pirates	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Erin Murphy '20 [1-4]	Alexis Lugo '22 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Eagles	Joey Laplaca '20	Aris Condos '20
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Cougars	Ryan Mcwalters '21	Henry Gallagher '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Ryan Ehnot '22	Justin Modin '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Quinn Harrington '19 [1-2] Matthew Bell '20 [3-4]	Walter Mehl '21 [1-2] Rodney Wotton '20 [3-4]
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22	Aedan Moran '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Luke Barlet '20	Gabriel Anama '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Riley Plosica '19
Varsity	Topher Lucyk '20	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1	Cameron Giblin '19	Will Beyer '20
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	John Cocozza '20
Panthers 2	Matthew Hamelsky '19	Catherine Vucetic '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Danny Raphael '19	Owen Geohegan '22
Bulldogs 1	Sophie Harrington '22	Audrey Beyer '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Taylor Rice '19
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]	Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3-4]
Rams	Bridget Green '21 [1-4]	Tom Green '19 [1-2] Christian Pagan '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Michael Pinto '19 [3-4]	Corbin Menzgentzow '22 [1-2]
Hermits	Mason Medolla '22 [1-4]	Chase Davis '20 [1-2] Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Hope Maguire '19
Monarchs	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Arianna Weber '21 [3-4]	Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Wed Series Seven

Division A

Division B

From the notes