NJISA 2019 Fall Series 2

HostRanney & Christian Brothers
Date09/18/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	13	12	25
2	Toms River North	Mariners	18	10	28
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	20	11	31
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams	21	12	33
5	Ranney School	Panthers 1	22	30	52
6	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	20	39	59
7	Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	33	28	61
8	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	41	23	64
9	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	26	41	67
10	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	50	34	84
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	47	38	85
12	Chatham High School	Cougars	29	61	90
13	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	43	59	102
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	59	43	102
15	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	48	59	107
16	Ranney School	Panthers 2	63	52	115
17	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	60	60	120

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	2	2	6	3	13	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Toms River North	Mariners	5	3	3	7	18	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	3	4	5	8	20	Matthew Bell '20 John Ruane '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	8	7	1	20	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	1	1	OCS	21	Brielle Willoughby '20 Nate Ertle '20
Ranney School	Panthers 1	6	6	4	6	22	Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	11	5	8	2	26	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars	13	9	2	5	29	Thomas Marino '21 Jonathan Field '22
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	7	7	15	4	33	Peter Taboada '20 [1-2] Jordan Macmoyle '20 [3-4] Brodie Best '23 [1-2] Mike Frankovich '23 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	9	10	12	10	41	Zachary York '20 [1-4] Mason Medolla '22 [1-2] Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	12	12	10	9	43	Mercedes Escandon '20 Ryan Dailey '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	8	13	13	13	47	Joey Laplaca '20 Danielle Petry '20
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	14	11	11	12	48	Topher Lucyk '20 [1-2] Will Kernan '23 [3-4] Harrison Quinn '20 [1-2] Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	10	17	9	14	50	Joe Paccione '21 Katie Shives '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	17	14	17	11	59	Thomas Roeber '23 Hayden Warwick '23
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	16	15	14	15	60	Sophie Harrington '22 Owen Geohegan '22
Ranney School	Panthers 2	15	16	16	16	63	Jack Whitman '23 Tomas Mora '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	3	1	2	4	10	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-4] Connor Corbett '22 [1-2] Lindsay Walsh '23 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	2	4	3	2	11	Colin Guerrera '22 Walter Mehl '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	1	2	4	5	12	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	4	6	1	1	12	Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Joe Mrazek '20 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	6	3	6	8	23	Patrick York '20 [1-4] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	7	7	8	6	28	Owen Desanto '23 Owen Desanto '23
Ranney School	Panthers 1	5	9	13	3	30	Alexa Whitman '22 John Cocozza '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	12	5	10	7	34	Gabriel Anama '21 Nate Ciak '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	14	8	5	11	38	Annabel Bornebusch '22 Arianna Weber '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	13	9	9	39	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-4] Connor Feury '22 [1-2] Hunter Oleynik '22 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	12	7	12	41	Ella Bilow '22 Alex Chrystal '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	11	10	12	10	43	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Alex Kraljic '23
Ranney School	Panthers 2	9	15	11	17	52	Kieran Collins '25 [1-2] Rowan Johnson '23 [3-4] Grace Bray '23 [1-2]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	13	16	15	15	59	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 Conor Greene '22
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	15	11	17	16	59	Emma Coakley '20 Mcmanus Cameron '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	16	14	16	14	60	Tim Buch '22 Ian Wurch '21
Chatham High School	Cougars	17	17	14	13	61	Sofie Jepsen '22 Allison Baun '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	18	18	18	18
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	17	17	17	17
Chatham High School Cougars	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	13	13	13	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	12	12	12	12
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	11	11	11	11
Ranney School Panthers 1	10	10	10	10
Ranney School Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	7	7	7	7
Southern Regional High School Rams	6	6	6	6
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	5	5	5	5
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	4	4	4	4
Toms River North Mariners	3	3	3	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	2	2	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	18	18	18	18
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	17	17	17	17
Chatham High School Cougars	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	13	13	13	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	12	12	12	12
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	11	11	11	11
Ranney School Panthers 1	10	10	10	10
Ranney School Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	7	7	7	7
Southern Regional High School Rams	6	6	6	6
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	5	5	5	5
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	4	4	4	4
Toms River North Mariners	3	3	3	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	2	2	2	2

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Peter Taboada '20 [1-2] Jordan Macmoyle '20 [3-4]	Brodie Best '23 [1-2] Mike Frankovich '23 [3-4]
Eagles 1	Owen Desanto '23	Owen Desanto '23
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20	Danielle Petry '20
Eagles 2	Annabel Bornebusch '22	Arianna Weber '21
Chatham High School	Thomas Marino '21	Jonathan Field '22
Cougars	Sofie Jepsen '22	Allison Baun '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Colin Guerrera '22	Walter Mehl '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	John Ruane '21
Colts 2	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-4]	Connor Feury '22 [1-2] Hunter Oleynik '22 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Joe Paccione '21	Katie Shives '20
Griffins 1	Gabriel Anama '21	Nate Ciak '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Thomas Roeber '23	Hayden Warwick '23
Griffins 2	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Alex Kraljic '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Topher Lucyk '20 [1-2] Will Kernan '23 [3-4]	Harrison Quinn '20 [1-2] Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-4]
Rangers	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21	Conor Greene '22
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers 1	Alexa Whitman '22	John Cocozza '20
Ranney School	Jack Whitman '23	Tomas Mora '23
Panthers 2	Kieran Collins '25 [1-2] Rowan Johnson '23 [3-4]	Grace Bray '23 [1-2]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Sophie Harrington '22	Owen Geohegan '22
Bulldogs 2	Tim Buch '22	Ian Wurch '21
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20	Nate Ertle '20
Rams	Bridget Green '21 [1-4]	Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Joe Mrazek '20 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20 [1-4]	Mason Medolla '22 [1-2] Calvin Mcclain '22 [3-4]
Hermits	Patrick York '20 [1-4]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20	Ryan Dailey '20
Purple Roses	Emma Coakley '20	Mcmanus Cameron '22
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-4]	Connor Corbett '22 [1-2] Lindsay Walsh '23 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4]	Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Monarchs	Ella Bilow '22	Alex Chrystal '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Fall Series 2

Division A

Division B

From the notes