NJISA 2019 Girls' Championship

HostChristian Brothers @ TRYC & OCC
Date05/22/2019
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	11	11
2	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 3	24	24
3	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	28	28
4	Trinity Hall	Monarchs 1	33	33
5	Ranney School	Panthers 2	37	37
6	Toms River South	Indians 1	57	57
7	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	58	58
8	Oak Knoll School	Royals 2	61	61
9	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	64	64
10	Toms River South	Indians 2	68	68
11	Ranney School	Panthers 1	71	71
12	Oak Knoll School	Royals 1	73	73
13	Chatham High School	Cougars 1	81	81
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	96	96
15	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	97	97
16	Chatham High School	Cougars 2	106	106
17	Trinity Hall	Monarchs 2	107	107

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	11	Brielle Willoughby '20 Bridget Green '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 3	5	9	1	2	2	3	2	24	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	4	8	3	3	5	2	3	28	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs 1	2	5	4	4	4	6	8	33	Lauren Ehnot '20 Ella Bilow '22
Ranney School	Panthers 2	1	1	6	RAF	3	4	4	37	Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Toms River South	Indians 1	6	3	11	6	6	12	13	57	Leo Krajewski '19 Sonja Krajewski '22
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	8	4	12	7	12	9	6	58	No Show No Show
Oak Knoll School	Royals 2	9	14	8	5	7	8	10	61	Mary Moriarty '19 Lauren Burke '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	7	15	7	12	11	5	7	64	Sophie Harrington '22 Taylor Rice '19
Toms River South	Indians 2	13	11	5	11	8	15	5	68	Alexa Carles '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Ranney School	Panthers 1	10	7	10	8	13	11	12	71	Alexa Whitman '22 Alexandria Forrest '22
Oak Knoll School	Royals 1	14	6	15	9	10	10	9	73	No Show No Show
Chatham High School	Cougars 1	12	16	9	10	9	14	11	81	Paige Lubrano '22 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	17	13	13	14	16	7	16	96	Sloane Nelson '22 Isabella Aguanno '22
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	16	10	14	15	14	13	15	97	Emma Coakley '20 [1-7] Emerson Furgason '20 [1-4] No Show [5-7]
Chatham High School	Cougars 2	15	17	16	13	15	16	14	106	Ciara Doherty '21 [1-7] Royce Ankel '21 [1-2, 5-6] Amanda Williams '21 [3-4, 7]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs 2	11	12	17	16	17	17	17	107	Sydney Gusmer '22 Hope Maguire '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Chatham High School Cougars 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Chatham High School Cougars 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Oak Knoll School Royals 1	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Oak Knoll School Royals 2	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Ranney School Panthers 1	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Ranney School Panthers 2	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Southern Regional High School Rams	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Toms River South Indians 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Toms River South Indians 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Trinity Hall Monarchs 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trinity Hall Monarchs 2	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Chatham High School	Cougars 1	Paige Lubrano '22	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Chatham High School	Cougars 2	Ciara Doherty '21 [1-7]	Royce Ankel '21 [1-2, 5-6] Amanda Williams '21 [3-4, 7]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	Sloane Nelson '22	Isabella Aguanno '22
Oak Knoll School	Royals 1	No Show	No Show
Oak Knoll School	Royals 2	Mary Moriarty '19	Lauren Burke '19
Ranney School	Panthers 1	Alexa Whitman '22	Alexandria Forrest '22
Ranney School	Panthers 2	Brooke Schmelz '21	Ashley Abboud '22
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	No Show	No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	Sophie Harrington '22	Taylor Rice '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 3	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	Brielle Willoughby '20	Bridget Green '21
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	Emma Coakley '20 [1-7]	Emerson Furgason '20 [1-4] No Show [5-7]
Toms River South	Indians 1	Leo Krajewski '19	Sonja Krajewski '22
Toms River South	Indians 2	Alexa Carles '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs 1	Lauren Ehnot '20	Ella Bilow '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs 2	Sydney Gusmer '22	Hope Maguire '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Girls' Championship

Division A

From the notes