| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 3–3 |
| 4 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,822 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.305 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.56 ± 0.62: a typical event, more orderly than 83% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs | 1 | 5.35 school +0.09 | Colleen O'Brien / Sophie Harrington 2.14 Michaela O'Brien / Amelia Buch 2.13 Fritz Sellig / Tim Buch | 83% | 6–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 2 | 4.29 school −0.32 | Matthew Bell / Bryce Vitiello 1.05 Ryan Ehnot / Joseph David 1.89 Colin Guerrera / Connor Feury 1.56 | 63% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.8 |
| 3 | Ranney School Panthers | 3 | 3.22 school −0.07 | Alexa Whitman / Grace Bray 0.81 Brooke Schmelz / Ashley Abboud 2.02 Jack Whitman / Rowan Johnson | 39% | 3–3 (50%) | +0.7 |
| 4 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 4 | 1.79 school −0.10 | Taylor Warwick / Joe Paccione 1.42 Chad Yannazzone / Katie Shives Sloane Nelson / Alex Kraljic 0–4 Kevin Brooksbank / Sloane Nelson 0–2 | 15% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven | 5.35 | 8.35 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 31% |
| 3 | Ranney School | 3.22 | 3.96 | 3–3 | 2.3 | +0.74 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 2 | Christian Brothers Academy | 4.29 | 3.38 | 3–3 | 3.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 4 | Donovan Catholic High School | 1.79 | -1.21 | 0–6 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Sellig | Rumson-Fair Haven | 0.86 | 3.86 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 31% |
| Alexa Whitman | Ranney School | 0.81 | 1.55 | 3–3 | 2.3 | +0.74 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Matthew Bell | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.05 | 0.13 | 3–3 | 3.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Colin Guerrera | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.56 | 0.64 | 3–3 | 3.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Taylor Warwick | Donovan Catholic High School | 1.42 | -1.58 | 0–6 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Chad Yannazzone | Donovan Catholic High School | 0.46 | -2.54 | 0–6 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Sloane Nelson | Donovan Catholic High School | -0.30 | -3.30 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ranney School | Christian Brothers Academy | 30% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Donovan Catholic High School | 95% | |
| 1 | 3 | Christian Brothers Academy | Donovan Catholic High School | 89% | |
| 1 | 4 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Ranney School | 84% | |
| 1 | 5 | Ranney School | Donovan Catholic High School | 71% | |
| 1 | 6 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Christian Brothers Academy | 69% | |
| 2 | 7 | Christian Brothers Academy | Ranney School | 70% | |
| 2 | 8 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Donovan Catholic High School | 95% | |
| 2 | 9 | Christian Brothers Academy | Donovan Catholic High School | 88% | |
| 2 | 10 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Ranney School | 84% | |
| 2 | 11 | Ranney School | Donovan Catholic High School | 71% | |
| 2 | 12 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Christian Brothers Academy | 70% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Panthers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Colts | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Colts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Colts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Colts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Panthers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | Colleen O'Brien '20 Fritz Sellig '21 Michaela O'Brien '20 |
Sophie Harrington '22 Tim Buch '22 Amelia Buch '20 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Colin Guerrera '22 Matthew Bell '20 Ryan Ehnot '22 |
Connor Feury '22 Bryce Vitiello '23 Joseph David '20 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Alexa Whitman '22 Brooke Schmelz '21 Jack Whitman '23 |
Grace Bray '23 Ashley Abboud '22 Rowan Johnson '23 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | Chad Yannazzone '19 Kevin Brooksbank '23 Sloane Nelson '22 Taylor Warwick '20 |
Katie Shives '20 Sloane Nelson '22 Alex Kraljic '23 Joe Paccione '21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
