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NJISA Wed Series Four

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 9 13 22
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 11 12 23
3 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 21 6 27
4 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 17 11 28
5 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 11 35 46
6 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 23 24 47
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 33 16 49
8 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 25 29 54
9 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 25 30 55
10 Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 49 11 60
11 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 16 51 67
12 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 47 24 71
13 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 22 51 73
14 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 39 35 74
15 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 35 43 78
16 Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 40 39 79
17 Admirals Admirals Admirals 52 34 86
18 Purple Roses Purple Roses Purple Roses 38 49 87
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 4 1 4 9 Luke Arnone '19
Blake Epstein '19
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 1 4 6 11 Tom Green '19
Joe Mrazek '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 5 3 3 11 Cameron Giblin '19
Will Beyer '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 12 2 2 16 Brielle Willoughby '20
Nate Ertle '20
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 3 5 9 17 Declan Botwinick '21
Evan Harrison '21
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 8 8 5 21 Colleen O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 2 7 13 22 Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3]
Hope Maguire '19 [1-2]
Ella Bilow '22 [3]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 9 6 8 23 Zach Higham '19 [1-3]
Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2]
Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 6 12 7 25 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 15 9 1 25 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Taylor Rice '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 10 11 12 33 Quinn Harrington '19
Walter Mehl '21
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 14 10 11 35 Zachary York '20 [1-2]
Michael Pinto '19 [3]
Corbin Menzgentzow '22 [1-2]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [3]
Purple Roses Purple Roses Purple Roses 11 13 14 38
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 7 15 17 39 Joey Laplaca '20
Alexander Cammarato '22
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 16 14 10 40 Molly Meehan '19 [1-3]
Caroline Fortier '19 [1-2]
Genieve Hand '21 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 13 16 18 47 Patrick Cashin '20 [1-2]
Michael Laguardia '21 [3]
Connor Feury '22 [1-2]
Jack Frankovic '22 [3]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 17 17 15 49 Topher Lucyk '20
Harrison Quinn '20
Admirals Admirals Admirals 18 18 16 52
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 3 2 1 6 Michaela O'Brien '20
Danny Raphael '19
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 1 3 7 11 Everett Botwinick '22
Connor Corbett '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 2 1 8 11 Patrick Modin '19 [1-3]
Riley Plosica '19 [1-2]
Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 [3]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 4 4 4 12 Bridget Green '21
Alex Klinov '22
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 6 5 2 13 Brooke Schmelz '21
John Cocozza '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 5 8 3 16 Ryan Ehnot '22
Joseph David '20
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 7 12 5 24 Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2]
Alexa Carles '19 [3]
Garrett Johnston '22 [1-2]
Jack Parks '21 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 11 7 6 24 Colin Guerrera '22 [1-2]
Justin Modin '19 [3]
Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Rodney Wotton '20 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 8 10 11 29 Sophie Harrington '22
Owen Geohegan '22
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 12 6 12 30 Luke Barlet '20 [1-2]
Joseph Paccione '21 [3]
Gabriel Anama '21 [1-2]
Jack Larkin '20 [3]
Admirals Admirals Admirals 13 11 10 34
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 9 13 13 35 Matthew Hamelsky '19
Catherine Vucetic '19
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 10 9 16 35 Aris Condos '20
Danielle Petry '20
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 16 14 9 39 Hailey Hathaway '22
Alex Gmoch '21
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 14 15 14 43 Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chris Medolla '20 [3]
Chase Davis '20 [1-2]
Mason Medolla '22 [3]
Purple Roses Purple Roses Purple Roses 15 17 17 49
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 17 16 18 51 Ella Bilow '22 [1-2]
Hope Maguire '19 [3]
Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 18 18 15 51 Christian Pagan '22
Lyndsey Clark '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles101010
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2121212
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins131313
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals141414
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity151515
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 1161616
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 2171717
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys181818
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1111
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2222
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1333
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2444
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits555
Purple RosesPurple Roses Purple Roses666
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners777
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians888
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs999

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles101010
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2121212
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins131313
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals141414
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity151515
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 1161616
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 2171717
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys181818
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1111
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2222
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1333
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2444
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits555
Purple RosesPurple Roses Purple Roses666
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners777
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians888
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs999
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Joey Laplaca '20 Alexander Cammarato '22
Eagles Aris Condos '20 Danielle Petry '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Quinn Harrington '19 Walter Mehl '21
Colts 1 Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Patrick Cashin '20 [1-2]
Michael Laguardia '21 [3]		 Connor Feury '22 [1-2]
Jack Frankovic '22 [3]
Colts 2 Colin Guerrera '22 [1-2]
Justin Modin '19 [3]		 Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Rodney Wotton '20 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Griffins Luke Barlet '20 [1-2]
Joseph Paccione '21 [3]		 Gabriel Anama '21 [1-2]
Jack Larkin '20 [3]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Topher Lucyk '20 Harrison Quinn '20
Varsity Patrick Modin '19 [1-3] Riley Plosica '19 [1-2]
Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 [3]
Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1 Brooke Schmelz '21 John Cocozza '20
Ranney School Ranney School Cameron Giblin '19 Will Beyer '20
Panthers 2 Matthew Hamelsky '19 Catherine Vucetic '19
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Molly Meehan '19 [1-3] Caroline Fortier '19 [1-2]
Genieve Hand '21 [3]
Caseys Hailey Hathaway '22 Alex Gmoch '21
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Taylor Rice '19
Bulldogs 1 Sophie Harrington '22 Owen Geohegan '22
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2 Michaela O'Brien '20 Danny Raphael '19
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 Nate Ertle '20
Rams 1 Christian Pagan '22 Lyndsey Clark '21
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
Rams 2 Bridget Green '21 Alex Klinov '22
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Zachary York '20 [1-2]
Michael Pinto '19 [3]		 Corbin Menzgentzow '22 [1-2]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [3]
Hermits Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chris Medolla '20 [3]		 Chase Davis '20 [1-2]
Mason Medolla '22 [3]
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Mariners Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South Toms River South Zach Higham '19 [1-3] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2]
Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [3]
Indians Leo Krajewski '19 [1-2]
Alexa Carles '19 [3]		 Garrett Johnston '22 [1-2]
Jack Parks '21 [3]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Julia Laforgia '19 [1-3] Hope Maguire '19 [1-2]
Ella Bilow '22 [3]
Monarchs Ella Bilow '22 [1-2]
Hope Maguire '19 [3]		 Alex Chrystal '20 [1-2]

Conditions — 10/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From NW (319°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1017.1 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →