| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Southern Regional High School | Rams | 2–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,302 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 2 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.510 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Regional High School Rams | 1 | 6.33 school −0.09 | Bridget Green / Tom Green Dana Haig / Joe Mrazek 2.22 Brielle Willoughby / Nate Ertle 2.22 | 60% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 2 | Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs | 2 | 5.80 school +0.24 | Colleen O'Brien / Amelia Buch 2.11 Michaela O'Brien / Kaitlynne Wilhelm 1.97 Shaanti Choi-Bose / Taylor Rice 1.45 | 40% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Regional High School | 6.33 | 9.33 | 2–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 36% |
| 2 | Rumson-Fair Haven | 5.80 | 2.80 | 0–2 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Southern Regional High School | Rumson-Fair Haven | 61% | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Regional High School | Rumson-Fair Haven | 59% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Southern Regional High School | Rams | Bridget Green '21 Brielle Willoughby '20 Dana Haig '18 |
Tom Green '19 Nate Ertle '20 Joe Mrazek '20 |
|
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | Colleen O'Brien '20 Michaela O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 |
Amelia Buch '20 Kaitlynne Wilhelm '19 Taylor Rice '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
