NJISA Fleet Series 2016-4

HostTRYC & OCC
Date10/05/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 1	5	10	15
2	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	7	12	19
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams	26	13	39
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	18	23	41
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	17	26	43
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	27	17	44
7	Toms River South	Indians	30	16	46
8	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	23	23	46
9	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits 2	23	29	52
10	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	33	27	60
11	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits 1	29	32	61
12	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	37	31	68
13	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	20	51	71
14	Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	34	37	71
15	Toms River North	Mariners	41	33	74
16	Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	44	31	75
17	Ranney School	Panthers 2	48	50	98
18	Toms River East	Raiders	52	52	104

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	2	1	2	5	Luke Arnone '19 Mari Patient '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	2	4	7	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-3] Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2] John Cocozza '20 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	6	3	8	17	Chris Magno '17 [1-3] Brady Niebling '20 [1-2] Justin Modin '19 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	8	7	3	18	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Olivia Depasquale '19
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	5	10	5	20	Colleen Obrien '20 Kieran Nevins '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits 2	9	5	9	23	Michael Pinto '19 [1-3] Vincent Cordasco '20 [1-2] Cole Murray '19 [3]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	11	11	1	23	Julia Laforgia '19 Kailin Burns-Cohen '18
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	4	OCS	26	Emily Haig '17 [1-3] Paul Reiff '17 [1-2] Kailee Forlai '17 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	14	6	7	27	Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits 1	7	12	10	29	Connor Murray '17 [1-3] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Vincent Cordasco '20 [3]
Toms River South	Indians	4	14	12	30	Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-2] Willow Wahlers '17 [3] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	10	9	14	33	Margaret Maccormack '17 Catherine Cooke '17
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	12	16	6	34	Macmoyle John '17 Fifield Scott '16
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	13	8	16	37	Brendan Gilman '18 [1-2] Alley Deluca '17 [3] Caroline Fortier '19 [1-2]
Toms River North	Mariners	15	15	11	41	Eddie Harrison '18 Devin Leadbetter '17
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	16	13	15	44	Patience Harrington '17 Murphey Erin '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	18	17	13	48	Kelsey Stout '19 Catherine Vucetic '19
Toms River East	Raiders	17	18	17	52	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	6	2	2	10	Cameron Giblin '19 Blake Epstein '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	10	1	12	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-3] Joseph David '20 [1-2] Ryan Mullins '19 [3]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	1	10	13	Tom Green '19 [1-3] Emily Micciche '17 [1-2] Kendal Forlai '20 [3]
Toms River South	Indians	10	3	3	16	Zach Higham '19 [1-2] Joey Cashman '18 [3] Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Tabitha Paul '19 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	3	8	6	17	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-2] Vincent Priolo '19 [3] Nate Ciak '20 [1-2] Alexis Tedesco '17 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	5	4	14	23	Patrick Modin '19 Quinn Harrington '19
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	7	12	4	23	Lauren Ehnot '20 Holly Koerwer '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	13	5	26	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Garret Boyan '17 [3] Matthew Bell '20 [1-2] Patrick Cashin '20 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	4	11	12	27	Cole Banias '17 Regina Vahey '18
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits 2	14	6	9	29	Zachary York '20 Timothy Capalbo '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	9	9	13	31	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [1-3] Maxwell Bonanno '19 [1-2] Vasel Luke '20 [3]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	13	7	11	31	Molly Meehan '19 Tess Miller '18
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits 1	12	5	15	32	Patrick York '20 Luke Alley '20
Toms River North	Mariners	11	14	8	33	James Koerner '17 Everett Botwinick '22
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	15	15	7	37	Nicastro Dino '20 Werner Tim '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	16	17	17	50	Matthew Hamelsky '19 Julia Wolf '19
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	17	16	18	51	Michael Meehan '22 Murray Elinson '19
Toms River East	Raiders	18	18	16	52	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 1	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 2	8	8	8
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	9
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 1	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 2	14	14	14
Toms River East Raiders	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	1	1	1
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 1	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 2	8	8	8
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	9	9	9
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	12	12	12
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 1	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 2	14	14	14
Toms River East Raiders	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Patience Harrington '17	Murphey Erin '20
Eagles 1	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [1-3]	Maxwell Bonanno '19 [1-2] Vasel Luke '20 [3]
Central Regional High School	Macmoyle John '17	Fifield Scott '16
Eagles 2	Nicastro Dino '20	Werner Tim '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-3]	Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2] John Cocozza '20 [3]
Colts 1	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-3]	Joseph David '20 [1-2] Ryan Mullins '19 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy	Chris Magno '17 [1-3]	Brady Niebling '20 [1-2] Justin Modin '19 [3]
Colts 2	Duncan Hathaway '20 [1-2] Garret Boyan '17 [3]	Matthew Bell '20 [1-2] Patrick Cashin '20 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	Catherine Cooke '17
Griffins 1	Cole Banias '17	Regina Vahey '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Griffins 2	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-2] Vincent Priolo '19 [3]	Nate Ciak '20 [1-2] Alexis Tedesco '17 [3]
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Mari Patient '17
Panthers 1	Cameron Giblin '19	Blake Epstein '19
Ranney School	Kelsey Stout '19	Catherine Vucetic '19
Panthers 2	Matthew Hamelsky '19	Julia Wolf '19
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18 [1-2] Alley Deluca '17 [3]	Caroline Fortier '19 [1-2]
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Tess Miller '18
Red Bank Regional High School	Colleen Obrien '20	Kieran Nevins '20
Bucs	Michael Meehan '22	Murray Elinson '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Olivia Depasquale '19
Bulldogs	Patrick Modin '19	Quinn Harrington '19
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-3]	Paul Reiff '17 [1-2] Kailee Forlai '17 [3]
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-3]	Emily Micciche '17 [1-2] Kendal Forlai '20 [3]
St. Augustine Prep School	Connor Murray '17 [1-3]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Vincent Cordasco '20 [3]
Hermits 1	Patrick York '20	Luke Alley '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19 [1-3]	Vincent Cordasco '20 [1-2] Cole Murray '19 [3]
Hermits 2	Zachary York '20	Timothy Capalbo '20
Toms River East	No Show	No Show
Raiders	No Show	No Show
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Devin Leadbetter '17
Mariners	James Koerner '17	Everett Botwinick '22
Toms River South	Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-2] Willow Wahlers '17 [3]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3]
Indians	Zach Higham '19 [1-2] Joey Cashman '18 [3]	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Tabitha Paul '19 [3]
Trinity Hall	Julia Laforgia '19	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18
Monarchs	Lauren Ehnot '20	Holly Koerwer '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Fleet Series 2016-4

Division A

Division B

From the notes