NJISA 2018 Last Hurrah

HostOCC & TRYC
Date05/30/2018
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers 2	23	23
2	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	29	29
3	Toms River North	Mariners	30	30
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams	35	35
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	39	39
6	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	46	46
7	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	47	47
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	53	53
9	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	53	53
10	Ranney School	Panthers 1	55	55
11	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	60	60
12	Toms River East	Raiders	66	66
13	Chatham High School	Cougars	74	74
14	Toms River South	Indians 2	74	74
15	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	76	76
16	Central Regional High School	Eagles	85	85
17	Toms River South	Indians 1	86	86
18	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	98	98

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 2	4	6	3	1	8	1	23	No Show No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	9	1	12	2	2	3	29	No Show No Show
Toms River North	Mariners	6	12	1	4	5	2	30	No Show No Show
Southern Regional High School	Rams	13	2	4	6	1	9	35	No Show No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	5	8	7	5	10	4	39	No Show No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	12	13	2	3	11	5	46	No Show No Show
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	1	5	17	10	6	8	47	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-2, 5-6] Isabelle Grimes '18 [3-4] Hope Maguire '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Chrystal '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	2	16	5	8	16	6	53	No Show No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	8	10	6	9	9	11	53	No Show No Show
Ranney School	Panthers 1	3	3	10	13	13	13	55	No Show No Show
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	14	11	9	12	7	7	60	No Show No Show
Toms River East	Raiders	16	7	13	11	4	15	66	No Show No Show
Chatham High School	Cougars	11	15	15	7	12	14	74	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-2, 5-6] Thomas Marino '21 [3-4] Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-2, 6] Zoe Papier '19 [3-4] Amanda Williams '21 [5]
Toms River South	Indians 2	15	18	14	14	3	10	74	No Show No Show
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	10	9	8	17	15	17	76	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-3] Joseph Paccione '21 [4-6] Nate Ciak '20 [1-3] Gabriel Anama '21 [4-6]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	7	14	16	15	17	16	85	No Show No Show
Toms River South	Indians 1	DNS	4	11	16	18	18	86	No Show No Show
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	DNS	17	18	18	14	12	98	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4	4	4
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	13	13	13	13	13	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	5	5	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 1	6	6	6	6	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 2	7	7	7	7	7	7
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	8	8	8	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	9	9	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	10	10	10	10	10	10
Southern Regional High School Rams	11	11	11	11	11	11
Summit High School Hilltoppers	12	12	12	12	12	12
Toms River East Raiders	14	14	14	14	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	15	15	15	15	15	15
Toms River South Indians 1	16	16	16	16	16	16
Toms River South Indians 2	17	17	17	17	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18	18	18	18	18

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Eagles	No Show	No Show
Chatham High School	Cougars	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-2, 5-6] Thomas Marino '21 [3-4]	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-2, 6] Zoe Papier '19 [3-4] Amanda Williams '21 [5]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	No Show	No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	No Show	No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	No Show	No Show
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-3] Joseph Paccione '21 [4-6]	Nate Ciak '20 [1-3] Gabriel Anama '21 [4-6]
Ranney School	Panthers 1	No Show	No Show
Ranney School	Panthers 2	No Show	No Show
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	No Show	No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	No Show	No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	No Show	No Show
Southern Regional High School	Rams	No Show	No Show
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	No Show	No Show
Toms River East	Raiders	No Show	No Show
Toms River North	Mariners	No Show	No Show
Toms River South	Indians 1	No Show	No Show
Toms River South	Indians 2	No Show	No Show
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-2, 5-6] Isabelle Grimes '18 [3-4]	Hope Maguire '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Chrystal '20 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2018 Last Hurrah

Division A

From the notes