NJISA Wed Fleet 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 6 6 12
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 6 8 14
3 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 14 8 22
4 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 18 4 22
5 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 12 12 24
6 Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 10 15 25
7 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 20 5 25
8 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 9 22 31
9 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 5 27 32
10 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 19 17 36
11 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 24 17 41
12 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 20 22 42
13 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 20 25 45
14 Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 27 22 49
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 2 3 5 Michael Pinto '19
Chris Medolla '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 4 2 6 Joe Laforgia '17
John Cocozza '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 5 1 6 Emily Haig '17
Paul Reiff '17
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 1 8 9 Chris Magno '17
Justin Modin '19
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 3 7 10 Brendan Gilman '18
Shayn Lynch '18
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 8 4 12 James Koerner '17
Everett Botwinick '22
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 9 5 14 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Taylor Rice '19
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 12 6 18 Julia Laforgia '19
Isabelle Grimes '18
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 7 12 19 Reilly Fitzgerald '18
Petry Gordon '17
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 6 14 20 Luke Caponegro '18
Patrick Cashin '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 10 10 20 Margaret Maccormack '17
Catherine Cooke '17
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 11 9 20 Willow Wahlers '17
Carol Nunn '19
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 13 11 24 Zach Higham '19
Aiden Hjembo '20
Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 14 13 27 Luke Dunton '18
Loring Dunton '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 3 4 Lauren Ehnot '20
Alex Chrystal '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 4 1 5 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 2 4 6 Michael Ehnot '18
Joseph David '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 3 5 8 Tom Green '19
Dana Haig '18
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 6 2 8 Patrick Modin '19
Claire Haynes '19
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 5 7 12 Eddie Harrison '18
No Show
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 9 6 15 Molly Meehan '19
Caroline Fortier '19
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 7 10 17 Patience Harrington '17
Condos Aristotle '20
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 8 9 17 Alexa Carles '19
Brock Wahlers '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 10 12 22 Dane Brazinski '17
Matthew Bell '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 11 11 22 Ryan Mullins '19
Robert Maes '17
Toms River East Toms River East Raiders 14 8 22 Renee Ciufia '17
Evan Czenis '20
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 12 13 25 Lauren Zelenak '17
Paige Zelenak '19
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 13 14 27 Patrick York '20
Luke Alley '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1414
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 21212
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 31111
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins1010
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys99
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs88
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams77
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits66
Toms River EastToms River East Raiders55
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners44
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 133
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 222
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs11

Division B

Team1B2B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1414
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 21212
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 31111
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins1010
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys99
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs88
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams77
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits66
Toms River EastToms River East Raiders55
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners44
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 133
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 222
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs11

Conditions — 03/29/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From NNE (18°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1017.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Toms River South: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River South by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Toms River South, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →