OCC Spring Invitational

HostTRYC OCC
Date03/25/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	21	19	40
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	26	16	42
3	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	25	28	53
4	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	40	26	66
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	28	38	66
6	Toms River South	Indians 1	43	26	69
7	Toms River North	Mariners	44	48	92
8	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	55	45	100
9	Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	51	55	106
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	42	71	113
11	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	57	57	114
12	Toms River South	Indians 2	49	68	117
13	Chatham High School	Cougars	71	61	132
14	Central Regional High School	Eagles	78	72	150

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	13	3	1	1	2	1	21	Joe Laforgia '17 John Cocozza '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	4	4	2	6	4	5	25	Cole Banias '17 [1-4] Margaret Maccormack '17 [5-6] Regina Vahey '18 [1-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	11	1	3	5	3	3	26	Emily Haig '17 [1-6] Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Emily Micciche '17 [3-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	2	9	11	3	1	2	28	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6] Taylor Rice '19 [1-2, 5-6] Danny Raphael '19 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	1	5	12	2	12	8	40	Lauren Ehnot '20 Claire Darman '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	2	10	8	10	4	42	Chris Magno '17 [1-6] Justin Modin '19 [1-2, 5-6] Rodney Wotton '20 [3-4]
Toms River South	Indians 1	3	10	4	7	7	12	43	Willow Wahlers '17 Carol Nunn '19
Toms River North	Mariners	5	7	5	13	8	6	44	James Koerner '17 [1-6] Mia Porter '18 [1] Mark Koerner '19 [2-6]
Toms River South	Indians 2	10	8	6	12	6	7	49	Zach Higham '19 [1-6] Brock Wahlers '20 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3-6]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	7	11	9	10	5	9	51	Mack Totman '19 Leo Briant '19
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	9	6	7	9	13	11	55	Margot Murray '17 William Przedpelski '17
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	12	14	8	4	9	10	57	Brendan Gilman '18 [1-6] Caroline Fortier '19 [1-4] Kathryn Sita '20 [5-6]
Chatham High School	Cougars	6	12	14	11	14	14	71	Marisa Marino '17 [1-2] Paul Danenberg '19 [3-6] Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2] Henry Gallagher '20 [3-6]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	14	13	13	14	11	13	78	Condos Aristotle '20 Patience Harrington '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	1	4	3	4	2	16	Dana Haig '18 Tom Green '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	3	3	2	3	7	19	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-6] Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 5-6] Joseph David '20 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	3	6	9	5	2	1	26	Julia Laforgia '19 Kailin Burns-Cohen '18
Toms River South	Indians 1	11	5	2	4	1	3	26	Lauren Zelenak '17 Paige Zelenak '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	2	6	1	6	8	28	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-2] Taylor Warwick '20 [3-6] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-2] Nate Ciak '20 [3-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	4	8	1	14	5	6	38	Patrick Modin '19 [1-6] Joey Cooner '19 [1-2, 5-6] Olivia Depasquale '19 [3-4]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 1	6	4	8	7	7	13	45	Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Toms River North	Mariners	10	7	5	12	9	5	48	Eddie Harrison '18 Mia Porter '18
Summit High School	Hilltoppers 2	8	9	10	6	13	9	55	Patrick Murray '19 Hannah Mercurio '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	12	10	11	10	10	4	57	Molly Meehan '19 [1-6] Devon Black '20 [1-4] Caroline Fortier '19 [5-6]
Chatham High School	Cougars	13	12	7	11	8	10	61	Luke Duplessis '20 Zoe Papier '19
Toms River South	Indians 2	7	13	14	9	11	14	68	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-6] Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Aiden Hjembo '20 [3-6]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	11	13	13	14	11	71	Dane Brazinski '17 [1-4] Luke Caponegro '18 [5-6] Matthew Bell '20 [1-2, 5-6] Patrick Cashin '20 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	14	14	12	8	12	12	72	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Petry Gordon '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	3	3	5	5
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	4	4	6	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	7	7	9	9
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	6	6	8	8	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	7	7	9	9	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	8	8	10	10	12	12
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	9	9	11	11	13	13
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	10	10	12	12	14	14
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	13	13	1	1
Toms River South Indians 1	12	12	14	14	2	2
Toms River South Indians 2	13	13	1	1	3	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	14	14	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Central Regional High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6
Chatham High School Cougars	3	3	5	5	7	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	4	4	6	6	8	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	5	5	7	7	9	9
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	8	8	10	10
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	7	7	9	9	11	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	10	10	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	11	11	13	13
Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	10	10	12	12	14	14
Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	11	11	13	13	1	1
Toms River North Mariners	12	12	14	14	2	2
Toms River South Indians 1	13	13	1	1	3	3
Toms River South Indians 2	14	14	2	2	4	4
Trinity Hall Monarchs	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Condos Aristotle '20	Patience Harrington '17
Eagles	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Petry Gordon '17
Chatham High School	Marisa Marino '17 [1-2] Paul Danenberg '19 [3-6]	Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2] Henry Gallagher '20 [3-6]
Cougars	Luke Duplessis '20	Zoe Papier '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	John Cocozza '20
Colts 1	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-6]	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 5-6] Joseph David '20 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Chris Magno '17 [1-6]	Justin Modin '19 [1-2, 5-6] Rodney Wotton '20 [3-4]
Colts 2	Dane Brazinski '17 [1-4] Luke Caponegro '18 [5-6]	Matthew Bell '20 [1-2, 5-6] Patrick Cashin '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Cole Banias '17 [1-4] Margaret Maccormack '17 [5-6]	Regina Vahey '18 [1-4]
Griffins	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-2] Taylor Warwick '20 [3-6]	Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-2] Nate Ciak '20 [3-6]
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18 [1-6]	Caroline Fortier '19 [1-4] Kathryn Sita '20 [5-6]
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19 [1-6]	Devon Black '20 [1-4] Caroline Fortier '19 [5-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-6]	Taylor Rice '19 [1-2, 5-6] Danny Raphael '19 [3-4]
Bulldogs	Patrick Modin '19 [1-6]	Joey Cooner '19 [1-2, 5-6] Olivia Depasquale '19 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-6]	Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Emily Micciche '17 [3-6]
Rams	Dana Haig '18	Tom Green '19
Summit High School	Margot Murray '17	William Przedpelski '17
Hilltoppers 1	Thomas Quinn '18	Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School	Mack Totman '19	Leo Briant '19
Hilltoppers 2	Patrick Murray '19	Hannah Mercurio '20
Toms River North	James Koerner '17 [1-6]	Mia Porter '18 [1] Mark Koerner '19 [2-6]
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Mia Porter '18
Toms River South	Willow Wahlers '17	Carol Nunn '19
Indians 1	Lauren Zelenak '17	Paige Zelenak '19
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-6]	Brock Wahlers '20 [1-2] Alexa Carles '19 [3-6]
Indians 2	Leo Krajewski '19 [1-6]	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Aiden Hjembo '20 [3-6]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Claire Darman '19
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Kailin Burns-Cohen '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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OCC Spring Invitational

Division A

Division B

From the notes