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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 13 13
2 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 25 25
3 North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 30 30
4 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 41 41
5 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 45 45
6 Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Varsity 48 48
7 Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 48 48
8 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 51 MRP 51 MRP
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 51 51
10 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 51 51
11 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 65 65
12 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 70 MRP 70 MRP
13 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 70 70
14 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 73 73
15 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 76 MRP 76 MRP
16 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 81 81
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 4 3 2 2 1 1 13 Pete Mcgriff '20
Parker Fench '22
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 11 1 RDG RDG 2 3 25 Toby Sullivan '19
Jose Varela '19
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 8 4 3 5 6 4 30 Alex Dicenso '19
Ryan Soucy '18
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 11 10 4 4 9 41 Lucy Brock '23
Julius Heitkoetter '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 9 9 5 11 3 8 45 Emma Aubuchon '19
Ellen Tovb '19
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Varsity 2 10 12 3 14 7 48 Dawson Doucet '18
Crockett Collier '21
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 14 16 1 1 5 11 48 Alex Gonzalez '20 [1-4]
Ella Marsden '20 [5-6]
Ethan Osborne '19 [1-6]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1 8 RDG RDG 7 5 51 MRP Everett Nash '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Mears '18 [3-4]
Cooper Soderlund '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Tory Miletti '18 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 6 4 9 13 12 51 Thomas Quinn '18
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 15 2 9 12 11 2 51 Garrett Mergenthaler '19
Caden Wilson '20
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 12 7 14 13 9 10 65 Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-6]
Mei Vickery '21 [1-4]
Megan Schoenzeit '21 [5-6]
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 5 13 6 8 12 6 70 MRP Miller Goldenberg '20 [1-6]
Robert Argote '18 [1-4]
William Nance '18 [5-6]
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 13 15 13 6 8 15 70 Aidan Brown '20 [1-2]
Patrick Miller '19 [3-6]
Alec Bodenski '19 [1-2]
Aidan Brown '20 [3-6]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 10 5 RDG 15 15 16 73 Harrison George '18 [1-6]
Alexandra Soo '18 [1-4]
Brian Liu '18 [5-6]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 12 8 7 10 13 76 MRP Michael Burns '21
Charles Breath '18
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 16 14 7 14 16 14 81 Coltrane Leport '18 [1-6]
Trent Bilodeau '21 [1-4]
Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers112233
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes223344
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity334455
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons445566
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates556677
Gulfport High SchoolGulfport High School Varsity667788
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays778899
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers88991010
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders9910101111
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers101011111212
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers111112121313
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet121213131414
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity131314141515
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws141415151616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers1515161611
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy16161122
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers Aidan Brown '20 [1-2]
Patrick Miller '19 [3-6]		 Alec Bodenski '19 [1-2]
Aidan Brown '20 [3-6]
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes Alex Gonzalez '20 [1-4]
Ella Marsden '20 [5-6]		 Ethan Osborne '19 [1-6]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Harrison George '18 [1-6] Alexandra Soo '18 [1-4]
Brian Liu '18 [5-6]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons Everett Nash '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Mears '18 [3-4]		 Cooper Soderlund '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Tory Miletti '18 [3-4]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Pete Mcgriff '20 Parker Fench '22
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Varsity Dawson Doucet '18 Crockett Collier '21
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays Miller Goldenberg '20 [1-6] Robert Argote '18 [1-4]
William Nance '18 [5-6]
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers Lucy Brock '23 Julius Heitkoetter '23
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders Coltrane Leport '18 [1-6] Trent Bilodeau '21 [1-4]
Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [5-6]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 Jose Varela '19
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers Alex Dicenso '19 Ryan Soucy '18
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-6] Mei Vickery '21 [1-4]
Megan Schoenzeit '21 [5-6]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity Garrett Mergenthaler '19 Caden Wilson '20
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws Michael Burns '21 Charles Breath '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy Emma Aubuchon '19 Ellen Tovb '19

Conditions — 11/19/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1021.6 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.5 kn
avg  ·  max 16.2 kn
Gusts to 29.7 kn
From N (0°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1021.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 16 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Jesuit NOLA: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.73 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit NOLA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Jesuit NOLA, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →