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2018 LTHS Fall Classic

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 26 18 44
2 Sterling Classical School Sterling Classical School Soldiers 31 22 53
3 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 1 27 75 102
4 St. Thomas' Episcopal St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints 59 46 105
5 SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 1 80 25 105
6 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 23 84 107
7 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 45 65 110
8 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 4 42 82 124
9 SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 2 51 77 128
10 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 87 45 132
11 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 70 104 174
12 SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 3 89 104 193
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 1 2 2 1 1 8 4 4 23 Julius Heitkoetter '22
Diego Gonzales '22
Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 6 4 1 5 3 3 3 1 26 Yumi Yoshiyasu '20
Elise Robinson '20
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 1 3 1 6 4 5 2 1 5 27 Lucy Brock '22
Kate Hennig '22
Sterling Classical School Sterling Classical School Soldiers 5 5 5 2 2 1 9 2 31 Ethan Froelich '20
Wendi Froelich '22
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 4 2 7 9 6 BKD 4 2 7 42 James Brock '24
No Show
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 8 3 3 3 4 6 8 10 45 Tyler Kemberling '20
Peyton Collins '21
SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 2 4 8 4 DNF 9 5 5 3 51
St. Thomas' Episcopal St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints 7 6 7 9 6 7 6 11 59 Celia Houston '19
Ava Barcelo '20
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 9 9 8 7 7 11 11 8 70 Nathan Gantala '22
SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 1 10 11 DNF 8 10 9 7 12 80
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 12 12 DNF DNF 11 10 10 6 87 Parker Younger '22
Christina Cross '20
SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 3 11 10 DNF DNF 8 DNF 12 9 89
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Falcons 1 1 1 3 4 1 5 2 18 Haru Masumoto '22
Elise Robinson '20
Sterling Classical School Sterling Classical School Soldiers 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 22 Fiona Froelich '23
No Show
SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 1 2 6 3 2 3 3 3 3 25
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club DNF DNF 2 1 1 5 4 6 45 Jack Van Zanten '21
Franchesca Moore '19
St. Thomas' Episcopal St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints 5 5 6 DNS 6 4 2 5 46 Katherine Flato '19
Charlie Corso '19
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 6 3 DNF DNS 5 9 9 7 65 Margaret Schuler '21
Benjamin Dunphey '22
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 1 3 2 5 DNS DNF DNF DNF DNF 75 Paige Fowler '21
Parker Friend '23
SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 2 DNF DNF DNF DNS 7 8 6 4 77
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 4 DNF DNF DNF DNS 8 7 7 8 82 James Brock '24
No Show
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 DNF DNF DNF DNS 9 6 8 9 84 No Show
No Show
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 DNF DNF DNF DNS DNF DNF DNF DNF 104 Nathan Gantala '22
SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 3 DNF DNF DNF DNS DNF DNF DNF DNF 104
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights11336688
Clear Lake High SchoolClear Lake High School Falcons22447799
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 13366881010
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 24477991111
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 3668810101212
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 4779911111414
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club881010121211
St. Thomas' EpiscopalSt. Thomas' Episcopal Saints991111141422
Sterling Classical SchoolSterling Classical School Soldiers101012121133
SEISA-Austin 1SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 1111114142244
SEISA-Austin 2SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 21212113366
SEISA-Austin 3SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 31414224477

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights22447799
Clear Lake High SchoolClear Lake High School Falcons3366881010
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 14477991111
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 2668810101212
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 3779911111414
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 4881010121211
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club991111141422
St. Thomas' EpiscopalSt. Thomas' Episcopal Saints101012121133
Sterling Classical SchoolSterling Classical School Soldiers111114142244
SEISA-Austin 1SEISA-Austin 1 SEISA-Austin 11212113366
SEISA-Austin 2SEISA-Austin 2 SEISA-Austin 21414224477
SEISA-Austin 3SEISA-Austin 3 SEISA-Austin 311336688

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1008.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 14.3 kn
Gusts to 36.9 kn
From S (184°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine7.4 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1008.0 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 13 kn · S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lake Travis: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.28 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Travis by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Travis, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →