Milton Academy '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 (fleet 0.45) | 214 of 231 | +0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–20 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 10–20 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 10–20 against 7.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 0.47 | 1.70 | 9–7 | 6.0 | +1.23 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 0.28 | -0.64 | 1–13 | 1.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| 2026 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship(O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | 1.00 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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