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Casco Bay Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 5 5 10
2 Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 23 18 41
3 Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 22 21 43
4 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 23 22 45
5 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 29 37 66
6 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1 29 39 68
7 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 51 MRP 20 71 MRP
8 Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 39 33 72
9 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 65 MRP 37 102 MRP
10 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3 58 MRP 48 106 MRP
11 Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 53 53 106
12 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 73 MRP 57 130 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 5 Thomas Sitzmann '23
Scarlett Harris '24
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 2 4 4 7 5 22 Arden Carleton '22
Piper Carleton '24
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 4 2 9 5 3 23 Sam Rooks '22
Aurora Raber '24
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 6 8 3 2 4 23 Gus Macaulay '23
Jack Culton '22
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1 7 7 6 3 6 29 Tess Straw '24 [1-5]
Jack Mccormick '24 [1-4]
Cora Johnson '23 [5]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 3 7 8 2 29 Eva Ermlich '22
Valyn Mogensen '22
Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 3 9 12 4 11 39 Eric Kim '22 [1-4]
Henry Do '23 [5]
Sean Morrison '22 [1-4]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 8 6 2 6 9 51 MRP Gavin Monaghan` '22
Harrison Vose '22
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 12 11 8 12 10 53 Hannah Hills '25
Maggie Halter '26
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3 11 5 5 9 8 58 MRP No Show
No Show
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 5 12 11 10 7 65 MRP No Show
No Show
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 10 10 10 11 12 73 MRP No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 5 Robby Meek '23
Lilly Baker '23
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 6 2 3 5 2 18 Christopher Chwalk '24 [1-4]
Brendan Jay '23 [5]
Brendan Jay '23 [1-4]
Christopher Chwalk '24 [5]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 3 3 7 2 5 20 Madeline Koelbel '22
Greta Klein '22
Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 2 7 2 3 7 21 Toby Clarkson '24
Bobby Clarkson '23
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 5 5 4 4 4 22 James Leavitt '22
Ryleigh Raber '23
Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 7 8 6 9 3 33 Helen Brewer '22 [1-2]
Andrew Liu '23 [3-5]
Venya Gupta '22 [1-2]
Zander Lai '23 [3-5]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 4 4 9 11 9 37 Aoife Mahoney '23 [1-4]
Charlie Spencer '23 [5]
Simone Daranyi '23 [1-4]
Fox Fernald '22 [5]
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 9 6 8 6 8 37 No Show
No Show
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 1 10 11 5 7 6 39 Luc Francis '24
Trevor Oakley '24
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3 11 9 10 8 10 48 No Show
No Show
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 8 10 12 12 11 53 Griffin Chace '26
Ivory Cody '25
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 12 12 11 10 12 57 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles11335
Boothbay RHSBoothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold22446
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 133557
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 244668
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 355779
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons668810
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen779911
Lincoln AcademyLincoln Academy Eagles88101012
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs9911111
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals101012122
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Varsity1111113
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers1212224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles22446
Boothbay RHSBoothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold33557
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 144668
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 255779
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers 3668810
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons779911
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen88101012
Lincoln AcademyLincoln Academy Eagles9911111
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs101012122
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1111113
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Varsity1212224
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers11335

Conditions — 09/11/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From N (359°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1020.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Portland: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Portland by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Portland, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →