Southern Maine Open

HostCape Elizabeth
Date05/13/2023
TypePromotional
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Unregistered-NESSA	Southern Maine	10–4
2	Portland High School	Bulldogs	9–4
3	Falmouth High School	Navigators	10–5
4	Camden Hills RHS	Varsity	9–5
5	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	6–9
6	Cheverus High School	Varsity	4–10
7	Boothbay RHS	SeaHawks Gold	1–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,018 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 9 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.543 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
2	Portland High School Bulldogs	1	3.48 school −0.15	Posie Cabaniss / Liam Sommer 1.25 Aoife Mahoney / Frankie Sparrow 1.08 Jack Taylor / Vio Voltz	71%	6–0 (100%)	+1.7
4	Camden Hills RHS Varsity	2	2.81 school +0.24	William Eggena / Greer Lafiura 0.69 Julian Henderson / Abigal Williams Charles Conover / Mabel Wight 1–2 Charles Conover / Elliot Condon 0–3	54%	1–5 (17%)	−2.2
5	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	3	1.67 school −0.25, home +0.10	Tess Straw / Celeste Tourangeu 0.95 Story Straw / Callie Mccarley 0.52 Luca Kleeman / Keaton Mosunic 0.22	25%	2–4 (33%)	+0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Portland High School	3.48	6.48	6–0	4.3	≥+3.00	2.7	12%
5	Cape Elizabeth High School	1.67	2.22	2–4	1.5	+0.55	0.2	46%
4	Camden Hills RHS	2.81	0.30	1–5	3.3	−2.51	2.9	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aoife Mahoney	Portland High School	1.08	4.08	6–0	4.3	≥+3.00	2.7	12%
Tess Straw	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.95	1.50	2–4	1.5	+0.55	0.2	46%
Story Straw	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.52	1.07	2–4	1.5	+0.55	0.2	46%
Luca Kleeman	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.22	0.77	2–4	1.5	+0.55	0.2	46%
William Eggena	Camden Hills RHS	0.69	-1.82	1–5	3.3	−2.51	2.9	99%
Charles Conover	Camden Hills RHS	0.53	-1.99	1–5	3.3	−2.51	2.9	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	5	Cape Elizabeth High School	Camden Hills RHS	30%	upset
1	12	Portland High School	Cape Elizabeth High School	80%
1	21	Portland High School	Camden Hills RHS	64%
2	26	Camden Hills RHS	Cape Elizabeth High School	71%
2	33	Portland High School	Cape Elizabeth High School	80%
2	42	Portland High School	Camden Hills RHS	62%
3	47	Cape Elizabeth High School	Camden Hills RHS	29%	upset
3	54	Portland High School	Cape Elizabeth High School	80%
3	63	Portland High School	Camden Hills RHS	61%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
2	Capers	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
3	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
4	Southern Maine	1-3-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	2-5-6
5	Capers	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
6	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
7	Southern Maine	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
8	Capers	1-2-5	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-4-6
9	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
10	Southern Maine	1-3-6	def.	Navigators	2-4-5
11	Varsity	2-3-5	def.	SeaHawks Gold	1-4-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Capers	4-5-6
13	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6
14	Southern Maine	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
15	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
16	Capers	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6
17	Varsity	1-4-5	def.	Southern Maine	2-3-6
18	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
19	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6 DNF
20	Southern Maine	1-2-3	def.	Capers	4-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
22	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	SeaHawks Gold	4-5-6
23	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Capers	3-4-6
24	Navigators	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
25	Southern Maine	1-2-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-5-6
26	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Capers	3-4-6
27	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
28	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Southern Maine	1-5-6
29	Capers	1-2-4	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-5-6
30	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
31	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Southern Maine	3-4-5
32	SeaHawks Gold	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
33	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Capers	2-5-6
34	Navigators	2-3-5	def.	Varsity	1-4-6
35	Southern Maine	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
36	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-4-5
37	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Capers	4-5-6 DNF
38	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Southern Maine	3-5-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
40	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	SeaHawks Gold	3-4-5
41	Southern Maine	1-3-4	def.	Capers	2-5-6
42	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
43	Varsity		def.	SeaHawks Gold
44	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Capers	3-4-5
45	Bulldogs		def.	Navigators
46	Southern Maine		def.	SeaHawks Gold
47	Capers	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
48	Navigators		def.	Varsity
49	Southern Maine	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
50	Capers		def.	SeaHawks Gold
51	Varsity		def.	Varsity
52	Southern Maine	2-3-4	def.	Navigators	1-5-6
53	Varsity	1-3-6	def.	SeaHawks Gold	2-4-5
54	Bulldogs		def.	Capers
55	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Navigators	2-4-6
56	Southern Maine		def.	Varsity
57	Bulldogs		def.	SeaHawks Gold
58	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Capers	4-5-6
59	Southern Maine		def.	Varsity
60	Bulldogs		def.	Varsity
61	Navigators		def.	SeaHawks Gold
62	Southern Maine		def.	Capers
63	Bulldogs		def.	Varsity

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Portland High School	Bulldogs	Aoife Mahoney '23 Jack Taylor '23 Posie Cabaniss '23	Frankie Sparrow '23 Vio Voltz '24 Liam Sommer '23
Camden Hills RHS	Varsity	Charles Conover '25 Julian Henderson '23 William Eggena '23	Mabel Wight '26 Elliot Condon '25 Abigal Williams '23 Greer Lafiura '24
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	Luca Kleeman '27 Story Straw '25 Tess Straw '24	Keaton Mosunic '28 Callie Mccarley '27 Celeste Tourangeu '26

Conditions — 05/13/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 33% · Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.8 kn

avg · max 11.5 kn

Gusts to 27.4 kn

From NW (317°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity33% Pressure1013.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Cape Elizabeth — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cape Elizabeth in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cape Elizabeth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Cape Elizabeth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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